Late July looks more likely for a heatwave than early August atm. 

Very interesting, and i have long suspected it might also be the reason colder winters of yesteryear have become rare.

https://wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=20&model=ico&var=5&run=12&time=147&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=3#mapref 

At this rate though, we will soon be starting another new thread for heatwave number 5 in early August.

https://wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=20&model=gfs&var=17&run=12&time=150&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=3#mapref 

34c, 37c, 37c, 35c, 33c, 32c, 

Wednesday into Thursday is especially interesting. Essentially the Channel moderates things (compare the widespread low 40s over northern France, almost to the coast, with our mid 30s). The airmass is similar though and we see the desert-style negative dewpoints again... something which really came to prominence in 2022, before that it was vanishingly rare to see that sort of heat here.

https://images.meteociel.fr/im/5/13544/150_101UKmqd5.GIF 

https://images.meteociel.fr/im/59/20728/174_582UKofq4.GIF 

Some showers form to the south and they then move up across the southern half of the UK - I bet these would be thundery in nature:

https://images.meteociel.fr/im/5/4736/174_779UKevp3.GIF 

That then leads to a sticky night in the south, SE and East Anglia, with a temporary boost in dewpoints:

https://images.meteociel.fr/im/1/14789/180_101UKchy4.GIF 

Dewpoints fall away again the day after as the dry/hot airmass reasserts itself.

Based on what we've seen this summer I suspect the GFS is onto something and we will indeed get a few very hot days next week. Whether it's a 3-day wonder or something more prolonged remains to be seen. One thing's for sure, those low dewpoints and high temperatures are a recipe for a tinderbox. I'd expect widespread wildfires to be headline news by this time next week if the GFS is right.

What do you make of this then? The peak on Thursday has western Europe in full on desert mode, truly remarkable and - I strongly suspect - a taster of what's to come in the next few decades. 

https://images.meteociel.fr/im/53/15270/174_582nzs9.GIF 

https://images.meteociel.fr/im/80/7421/168_101pcp6.GIF 

EDIT: And much like a snowdrift creeps across a road, so the pink tendrils of 40C+ creep across Europe. The chart for Thursday on the "virtual globe" from MC illustrates it well... it's incredibly widespread compared to the norm.

https://images.meteociel.fr/im/2/8456/canvasgvm4.png 

I suspect that low will end up further west, but its acting like a heat pump. 

I agree Snowman. Dave- thanks for opening up a new thread for a new heatwave. Would you consider renaming it -I don't know- late July to early August or something?

Bert

Aerosol pollution has long been included in climate modelling and it significantly slowed the warming trend in the 20th century. Clearer skies mean the full impact of greenhouse gases is no longer masked. Which is rather scary to be honest. 

More of a marked impact on summers than winters though. 

Almost a carbon copy of late June heatwave but there some points to consider that after 3 weeks of rain in June and a unexpected storms over London limited the temps from going to 38C or over.   Now this time with extreme dry ground and no rain since June would factor higher temps than they predicted?  Probably the temps you put be like in the Midlands while London go 1-2C higher than here.

This summer really is unprecedented for these multiple heat domes 🥵 

It really wouldn't take much for the UK to tap into that 40c + heat.

Done - tbh I hadn't twigged that it was still July next week - I feel like we're most of the way through August!

Unfortunately I can't find the source now bit I read recently that some parts of France have moisture levels of 0.02% in the top 2 meters of soil. The same as a true desert. 

Extraordinary times.

https://wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=20&model=ecm&var=17&run=12&time=198&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=3#mapref 

I cannot believe only 7 more needed to beat 1995. Looking at the ensembles and early August it looking like yet another heatwave. 

Everything is so parched, there is no grass left around here alive. I’ve also noticed that even though grass returns quickly, the last few summers have left some areas so patchy.

That's a very good point. My lawn has certainly deteriorated a lot in recent years. It no longer fully recovers over the winter and spring on its own, and weeds increasingly fill the bare and thinned patches. The problems also extend beyond the lawn. At the moment, there's virtually nothing to do in the garden other than watering and the odd bit of tidying up.

Apple apps are having none of this heatwave as only show mere warm 28C here and 29C London not a single day show 30C.  They been terrible wrong most of the time and undercook temps as far as 5C. Mine recorded 29.6C today while app show 25C.  I think they record temps in an areas like multi storey car park which always cooler than outside.

Worryingly, as has been discussed elsewhere, they’re into serious impacts on crop yields; and not just in France.

 Somewhere in this is a conversion about food security.  If countries from which we import food find their crop yields dropping are they going to prioritise domestic needs ahead of their export markets?