According though to the study, the removal of namely sulphur  based pollution over Europe has increased the temperature far more than what is to be expected from global warming across the region. Reduced temperature difference in the Arctic has alllowed slowing of rossby waves increasing locked in weather patterns over Europe increasing the risk of heat domes. 

"Temperatures in Europe have warmed twice as much as the rest of the world since the 1980s, figures show, with the continent now 2.3C warmer than it was in the pre-industrial era. In the same period, the global average is 1.3C."

"Experts believe this year’s heatwave was driven by the phenomenon, as well as the scorching European summers of 2003, 2006, 2015, 2018 and 2019"

I'm expecting a No5 heatwave in August and a No6 in September.  🙂🙂🙂🙂

That’s because the apple weather app is based on poor quality American data for its global output. I avoid it completely. 

https://wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=20&model=gfs&var=17&run=0&time=162&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=3#mapref 

Desertification in full swing. At 7PM it has 37 / dew -1 in the Worcester area, 9% relative humidity. And nearby there's a 36/-2, which is also 9%.

30c, 33c, 35c, 40c, 38c, 39c, 40c, 34c, 31c,

It keeps on going and going , the heat for Belgium and Netherlands is truly completely unprecedented. Smashing their all time record day after day.

Look at all those 44 heading toward French coasts and seem want to reach UK.  I think further upgrades likely and with ground already drier than late June heatwave to factor higher temps here. Might able to break the national record easily.

Hard to say. GEM 0z has the heat only clipping the SE. UKMO is hot but not as hot as GFS . 

But yes when you have 46c forecast for Belgium it wouldn't take much for something like that here.

Yes wish there other app to replace this app to reflect accurately like Samsung was good and shown 39C forecast in July 2022.   Nicosia also several C very low but Toronto still seem ok.  From what Ally posted I think 37 to 38C likely for here.  Oz runs normally a worst run often but this case not this morning.  Those widespread 44C over France need to go somewhere so that go north.  I think this will be the major peak heatwave for 2026 while sun are still strong enough.  Hope Scotland join in as well. 

GFS isolated this morning with the extreme heat.

https://wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=20&model=aifs&var=5&run=0&time=234&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=6#mapref 

It need to be scrapped as they are a Scrooge and  been very inaccurate this summer.  Other being constant showing heatwave so likely severe cold outlier on above link. 

I really don't rate AIFS, as I've said before - pattern-match the past climate, get what we would have had in the old climate. And with temperatures much higher than they were back then, there's less comparable data to go on. The "AI" models were rubbish during winter (consistently showing easterlies which never materialised, they kept this up for weeks on end) and they've been almost as rubbish this summer. 

A blend of the two, as GEM is doing, is the way to go. 

Evil AIFS, I agree Jiries.  

GFS is isolated with the extreme heat but it often handles cut of lows better than other models . So maybe it's onto something. 

As a heat-hater I'd say it's onto something. When the past 6 (or is it 7?) runs in a row have mid 30s here (and a 37 this morning) you just know something's up! The previous heatwaves this year have been similar, with the MetO raw gradually creeping up into the 30s as the time draws nearer.

Yes mid to high 30s not the 40C or over including France but still going to be very hot.  We already over 1 month since the longest day so need this heatwave as a peak for 2026.  It made me laugh those heat haters i read now on NW really fell for AIFS.  Darren is very right it been very poor so need to be scrapped.  If i was Brian here I would remove this model from the website so anything AI should not be shown.   Let see further runs as it not very outlier on the GFS ensembles as few members go over 20C.  

This is Telegraph spin. The newspaper has an agenda, as I’m sure you know. “Far more than would be expected from global warming” is their nudge nudge wink wink way of implying that somehow the underlying cause of the warming is not CO2, and therefore let’s keep drilling and burning. Nothing to see here, it’s all normal. 

In reality warming is uneven across the globe and Europe is seeing some of the fastest rates. Firstly you expect a differential rate for continents anyway, but secondly you also expect that pattern changes will exacerbate the problem in some places more than others. 

The removal of a mitigant takes us to where the climate would have been with GHG warming but without aerosol pollution. The absence of something that wasn’t there before industrialisation leaves us a couple of degrees higher than the pre-industrial average. That doesn't magically happen by introducing a coolant and then taking it away.

The study is here: 

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2026GL122424?utm_source=chatgpt.com 

It's backed by the met office.

There’s absolutely nothing wrong with the study, and it’s what climatologists have been discussing for some time. The issue is the spin the Telegraph puts on it, oh so subtly, to imply the reason for the underlying warming isn’t greenhouse gases.

It’s like saying the reason someone got fat is because they came off the Ozempic. 

30c, 32c, 30c, 30c, 33c, 34c, 31c, 29c, 30c, 

You can normally add 2c or 3c to ECM max temps 

That would surpass the 1995 record. 

However the so called spin you have claimed isn't what the telegraph have done. Also this isn't just the telegraph that are reporting this study.. it just happened to be the one that went more in depth at the original time i posted about it.