A usual predictions by email to [email protected] by midnight on the 31st August. 

Stats

All time CET for September is 13.37c

1991 - 2020 CET for September is 14.18

All time highest

2023  17.00c

2006  16.90c

1729  16.60c

1949  16.30c

1865  16.3c

All time Lowest

1807  10.50c

1675  10.50c

1674  10.50c

1694  10.50c

1703  10.60c

1991 - 2020 period

highest

2006  16.90

2016  16.10

1999  15.60

2005  15.20

2011    15.10

Lowest

1993  12.30

1994  12.70

2015  12.70

2012  13.00

2001  13.50

It had better be more summery than last September. Not only one of the coolest for a while, but 140mm of rain in E&W (nearly twice the average), and a paltry 120 hours of sunshine. 

All of that made it 48th out of 55 in my England and Wales summer index, and the worst September since 1994. A contrast with 2023, though that wasn’t particularly dry or exceptionally sunny. Sunniest September was in 2015 and the driest 2014.

Sorry to be a pedantic bore but I think the bottom item in your summary should be 2001 and not 1991 

Sept 1991 was a warm one (I don't really remember it well but its often cited as a yardstick/one of the warmest between 1949 and 1999), while Sept 2001 I remember as being pretty cool and rather miserable and I expect is the 13.5 .

On the whole September seems to be one of the most "climate changed months of the year , if you look at the record since 1998 it really is striking the step change. 15c would be exceptional territory before 1998, not so now. It's effectively turned into a summer month.

I think I missed a prediction for August, unfortunately.

For September, I'll go for 15.9. A relatively changeable first week before warmer and more settled conditions set in for the middle third or so. A warm month definitely, but not exceptionally so.

Just stickied it for you Dave. 🙂🙂🙂

Thanks Gavin. 😊 

I'll put my CET figure if you don't mind Dave. When I emailed to you last month, it disappeared in the ether. 🙂🙂🙂

Anyway,  I'll go for 15.5C. A warm one but not exceptionally so.  🙂🙂🙂

Yeah, only the 2c above the long term average 😉

Good spot SSWD - just testing you! 😉

Hadley

16.6 to the 1st

3.0c above the 61 to 90 average

1.4c above the 91 to 20 average

No problem Dave, pretty sure it was a GW mistake originally that his successors have copy pasted through the years!

13.5c would seem very cool now , wholly normal just a few decades ago.

Hadley

15.7 to the 2nd

2.2c above the 61 to 90 average

0.4c above the 91 to 20 average

Hadley

16.2 to the 3rd

2.6c above the 61 to 90 average

0.8c above the 91 to 20 average

Hadley

16.0 to the 4th

2.5c above the 61 to 90 average

0.6c above the 91 to 20 average

Hadley

15.9 to the 5th

2.3c above the 61 to 90 average

0.5c above the 91 to 20 average

Hadley

16.0 to the 6th

2.4c above the 61 to 90 average

0.7c above the 91 to 20 average

Apologies for the late posting of the table - I've been rather unwell for the last few days with an nasty UTI and am only just starting to catch up with things.

Firstly I have to hold my hands up to an error - despite deciding on it I forgot to write my prediction into the first post of the thread as is customary to ensure fairness and so although I've included my prediction in the table below I will count this month as a missed prediction and take the penalty for myself when doing this months results table. It seems the only fair way to do it and is a good lesson to myself to check everything before posting!

Anyway here are September's predictions - a bigger spread for once though no one is brave enough to go for a colder than average month!

I hope you're feeling better soon Dave. 

Thanks again for everything you do for the CET competition and stats on this forum.  It's very much appreciated. 

🙂🙂🙂🙂🙂

Hadley

16.3 to the 8th

2.7c above the 61 to 90 average

1.1c above the 91 to 20 average

Aww Dave.  Sorry to hear you’ve been unwell and hope you’re fully recovered now.  Don’t apologise for being late, these things happen and we’re just grateful you’re doing this at all.  

Hope you feel better soon Dave

I’m already thinking I’ve gone a little too low

Hadley

16.0 to the 9th

2.5c above the 61 to 90 average

0.8c above the 91 to 20 average

Hadley

16.0 to the 10th

2.5c above the 61 to 90 average

0.9c above the 91 to 20 average

Hadley

15.8 to the 11th

2.3c above the 61 to 90 average

0.7c above the 91 to 20 average

Hadley

15.4 to the 13th

1.8c above the 61 to 90 average

0.4c above the 91 to 20 average