The Weather Outlook

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scillydave
20 August 2025 12:56:18

And the sub tropical gardens? How do they look?

Originally Posted by: NMA 

They're surviving at present but there's very little in flower and everything looks parched. Of note though I did see that the lemon tree is thriving with a nice crop of Lemons - it's probably the only one that grows outside year round in the UK though there may be a few in private London gardens now.


Currently living at roughly 65m asl North of Cowbridge in the Vale of Glamorgan.

Formerly of, Birdlip, highest village in the Cotswolds and snow heaven in winter; Hawkinge in Kent - roof of the South downs and Isles of Scilly, paradise in the UK.

Jiries
21 August 2025 20:47:36

Went for a walk by the local park near me and the lake there show a 4inches drop as I looked at the part of the lake wall to see the water levels leaving behind 4 inches of green moss exposed to the open air, some sticks, logs and rocks appeared to the surface and most ducks seem to be sitting on very shallow water and ome sitting on the rocks or exposed logs.  I will check again few days later to see the level if further drop.

johncs2016
21 August 2025 22:26:54
The latest water scarcity report has just been released by SEPA and once again, that doesn't make for very good reading.

Here in Edinburgh, there is been virtually no recorded rainfall at all in the past week that I know of (in that time, there has just been 0.6 mm of rain at Edinburgh Gogarbank along with a measly 0.2 mm at the botanic gardens in Edinburgh).

As a result, the ground is now very dusty and rock hard with the grass having shrivelled away into shades of yellow and even brown. From that, it is very clear now that some rainfall is very badly needed yet with high pressure continuing to remain in charge for the foreseeable future, there continues to be no signs of that for now.

On this forum, the majority of the data which I tend to report will be for Edinburgh Gogarbank but that particular station along with many others, form part of the official Met Office district known as the East of Scotland which just like each individual station such as Gogarbank, also has its own 1991-2020 averages.

According to the data for that particular district, every single month within this year has been drier than average at least in terms of the actual rainfall amounts with that deficit going all the way back to June 2024 and in that time, the total amount of rain has been as much as 40% below the 1991-2020 average over that same period.

From that, it should be clear just why there is an ongoing water scarcity crisis which is only going to continue to get even worse as long as the rain keeps on refusing to fall here.

I said last week that without any further rainfall, our water scarcity status would just continue to be further upgraded and that is exactly what has just happened because for the second week in a row, Edinburgh has had its water scarcity status upgraded, this time from alert status to moderate water scarcity status along with East Lothian and other parts of the east of Scotland with the Borders having also been upgraded in a similar manner.

In addition to that, the report also states that if there is no improvement in this situation in the next week, at least one or two of these areas risk having their status upgraded all the way to significant water scarcity status which is the highest possible status which you can get to (that is the equivalent from a water scarcity perspective to being under an official Met Office red warning for a particular type of weather).

In addition to that, the Loch Earn catchment area along with the Orkney Islands have had their status upgraded from early warning status at alert status. However, there is just one exception to all of this which has been in the Shetland Isles which has actually had its status downgraded from early warning status to normal, clearly as a result of it being much wetter there in the past week.

Apart from that, the status of all areas which I haven't mentioned above remains unchanged from this time last week.


The north of Edinburgh, usually always missing out on snow events which occur not just within the rest of Scotland or the UK, but also within the rest of Edinburgh.

MRazzell
22 August 2025 08:18:16

I'd like summer to prolong for as long as possible, but we desperately need some sustained rain here. 

Its not just the outdoors that is suffering, but buildings too - Those who live on clay will know what i mean.


Far north of East Sussex. +150m asl.
Saint Snow
22 August 2025 08:52:03

I think here in the NW, reservoir levels have more or less reached their low-point for the summer, with more unsettled weather forecast for the couple of weeks after the BHW

Here's reservoir levels with the actual level followed by the change from last week. The bracketed figure is 'average year', but I don't know what that means - there's no explanation. Could mean 'the average across the year so far', or 'the average annual level across all years' or even - which would be the most useful - 'the average level for this week across all years'

Regional Total 54.3% -2.9% (73.8%)

Carlisle 74.9% -7.1% (85.3%)

Haweswater & Thirlmere 50.3% -3.5% (64.5%)

Pennine Sources 35.8% -2.0% (71.4%)

Dee & Vyrnwy Reservoirs 67.6% -3.2% (79.5%)

Note, though, that we've not had a hosepipe ban at any time this summer.


Martin

Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)

A TWO addict since 14/12/01

"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."

Aneurin Bevan

johncs2016
22 August 2025 13:27:38

Following on from my last post on here about the latest water scarcity report from SEPA, I've now just come across this  BBC report which describes the current situation with that very well.


The north of Edinburgh, usually always missing out on snow events which occur not just within the rest of Scotland or the UK, but also within the rest of Edinburgh.

MRayner
22 August 2025 16:22:39

Have only been in this area for last 7 years, and our current august rainfall is 7 mm, lowest august previous, 45mm . 

Private wells in the speyside area are starting to fail, some , the first time in 30 years . One of our local group scheme ones is struggling .

Problem is, there’s no relief of sustained rain on the horizon. 

Are we beginning to witness a historic drought for eastern Scotland? Certainly, water scarcity for the eastern side is becoming more frequent .  Fingers crossed this will change soon, and I will be complaining of the rain not stopping !!


Location Whisky 🥃 country, Cragganmore ,Moray, 440 AMSL

Retron
22 August 2025 16:29:34

Still on zero this month, although there was a shower which left 7 drops of rain on my wheelie bin lid. I cleaned out the rain gauge today, evicting another couple of spiders, clearing away stray fly wings and bits of leaves... it was cobwebbed too, all signs of lack of use!

There are a couple of deep cracks in my lawn now, one of which goes down at least 18 inches (having poked a stick into it). There will be subsidence issues before too long if this keeps up!


Leysdown, north Kent
Viking3
23 August 2025 15:44:38

If it remains very dry through the coming weeks I suppose we could see some early frosts this autumn.

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

There was an air frost last night in Upper Strathdon; -2C at the coldest spot Inchrory which to be fair is pretty high up. -1C at Corgarff around 400m is at the inhabited level.


Keith

Aboyne, Aberdeenshire

135m asl

fairweather
23 August 2025 17:06:21

Still on zero this month, although there was a shower which left 7 drops of rain on my wheelie bin lid. I cleaned out the rain gauge today, evicting another couple of spiders, clearing away stray fly wings and bits of leaves... it was cobwebbed too, all signs of lack of use!

There are a couple of deep cracks in my lawn now, one of which goes down at least 18 inches (having poked a stick into it). There will be subsidence issues before too long if this keeps up!

Originally Posted by: Retron 

There were lot of subsidence issues when I bought this house in 1976. All clay round here and it was a big problem with lots of under-pinning firms cashing in on the insurance jobs. My mortgage lender insisted on a specialist expert survey which I did. The guy said all the houses in the area will settle but it didn't always matter. He said, despite a few cracks in the pointing that mine was better than most as it had been built on a concrete slab. It's still ok and a lot of buildings here were only ten years old then so most will have settled by now. 

And that reminds me - I must check out my rain gauge which I recall is the same as yours and does get plagued by spiders. Not that I'm expecting any rain. Seems like I have been stuck on 240mm for the year for weeks now.


S.Essex, 42m ASL
scillydave
23 August 2025 20:54:25

There were lot of subsidence issues when I bought this house in 1976. All clay round here and it was a big problem with lots of under-pinning firms cashing in on the insurance jobs. My mortgage lender insisted on a specialist expert survey which I did. The guy said all the houses in the area will settle but it didn't always matter. He said, despite a few cracks in the pointing that mine was better than most as it had been built on a concrete slab. It's still ok and a lot of buildings here were only ten years old then so most will have settled by now. 

And that reminds me - I must check out my rain gauge which I recall is the same as yours and does get plagued by spiders. Not that I'm expecting any rain. Seems like I have been stuck on 240mm for the year for weeks now.

Originally Posted by: fairweather 

240mm is very low mind you it's got a way to go to beat the Margate record of 236mm across a whole year back in 1921! Southend and Ramsgate recorded 270mm or so that year.

I wonder where you'll finish up?


Currently living at roughly 65m asl North of Cowbridge in the Vale of Glamorgan.

Formerly of, Birdlip, highest village in the Cotswolds and snow heaven in winter; Hawkinge in Kent - roof of the South downs and Isles of Scilly, paradise in the UK.

johncs2016
26 August 2025 17:04:11
The next official weekly update from SEPA isn't due until Thursday at around 3pm but in advance of that, this  report has already come through on the STV News website.

Last week's report warned us that unless there was an improvement within this week as regards to rainfall and the ongoing water scarcity situation, at least one area would be upgraded all the way up to significant water scarcity status. That is the highest level which you can get to, and is the equivalent of getting an official Met Office red warning for a particular type of weather.

In the last week, there has been little or no rainfall. Last night's weather front brought us virtually nothing in the way of actual recorded rainfall and although there has been the odd shower around today, that has just been nothing more than the odd fleeting shower which has been barely enough to even wet the ground. That was clearly never going to be enough to alleviate the situation and because of that, SEPA have now already decided to act on that.

As a result, two areas (the north of Fife and one area in Aberdeenshire) will now have their status upgraded from moderate water scarcity status to significant water scarcity with restrictions now being imposed in the amount of water which is allowed to be abstracted in those area.

In the MO thread on this forum, there has been a lot of talk about the great drought of 2025 coming to an end but in the east of Scotland, this isn't just something which has been happening in 2025 because in many areas, the deficit has stretched all the way back to June 2024, so this should really be referred to as the great drought of 2024/25 in these areas, rather than the great drought of just 2025.

The news report which I've linked to has also warned that a number of other areas along the east coast which are currently at moderate water scarcity status could also have their status upgraded to significant water scarcity status with similar restrictions being imposed in those areas.

This is therefore, clearly a very serious situation which has developed here. Of course, there will be more details on all of that on Thursday when the next weekly update is officially released by SEPA but SEPA also have a drought assessment tool which can be accessed here . That is updated daily at 09:30 UTC (which at this time of year, is 10:30am) and allows anyone to get an update on what the current situation is like without any need to wait for the weekly official reports on a Thursday.


The north of Edinburgh, usually always missing out on snow events which occur not just within the rest of Scotland or the UK, but also within the rest of Edinburgh.

NMA
  • NMA
  • Advanced Member
28 August 2025 07:42:27

Even if and when the grass recovers this autumn, livestock farmers will still need to feed their stock or have a fire sale. In any case autumnal grass has negligible feed value so if they hold on to the stock and feed expesive feed, it's as likely to bust them as selling cheap. There was a field of maize near me that the farmer cut last week. It was a serious combustion hazard.

Add in to the recipe the other political and other economic woes, we’re entering unstable times which we haven't seen for a long long time.

For most of us not in our lifetimes.

https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/climate-energy/drought-leaves-uk-beef-farmers-scrambling-feed-hungry-herds-2025-08-28/ 


Vale of the Great Dairies

South Dorset

Elevation 60m 197ft

bledur
28 August 2025 08:24:33

Even if and when the grass recovers this autumn, livestock farmers will still need to feed their stock or have a fire sale. In any case autumnal grass has negligible feed value so if they hold on to the stock and feed expesive feed, it's as likely to bust them as selling cheap. There was a field of maize near me that the farmer cut last week. It was a serious combustion hazard.

Add in to the recipe the other political and other economic woes, we’re entering unstable times which we haven't seen for a long long time.

For most of us not in our lifetimes.

https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/climate-energy/drought-leaves-uk-beef-farmers-scrambling-feed-hungry-herds-2025-08-28/ 

Originally Posted by: NMA 

IF we get enough rain in the next 7-10 days it is amazing how grass will recover quickly . In 76 there was a lot of grass by November but too wet to utilise. In 95 following a long hot summer which did not break till mid Sept i think we were making silage in November . It was not much good but better than a fistful of snow .

 Regardeng Maize , some very poor crops but again getting it off early and if we get rain , quick growing Ryegrasses can be sown and would give grazing Nov onwards . Still not to late in the south to sow root crops .

 Just need enough RAIN🤞

 

The Beast from the East
28 August 2025 08:32:39

THis time next week, I think most plebs will be saying "What drought?" "Rain rain go away"


Purley, Surrey, 70m ASL

"We have some alternative facts for you"

Kelly-Ann Conway - former special adviser to the President

johncs2016
28 August 2025 09:27:03

THis time next week, I think most plebs will be saying "What drought?" "Rain rain go away"

Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 

That's why I was hoping that this thread wouldn't end up being created in the first place, and that all discussions about any lack of rainfall would just be part of the monthly precipitation threads as those threads can become very quiet during our drier spells.

However, this thread is clearly what people on here have wanted and that's why I've also been happy to go by that.


The north of Edinburgh, usually always missing out on snow events which occur not just within the rest of Scotland or the UK, but also within the rest of Edinburgh.

Retron
28 August 2025 13:30:13

I'd been watching some heavy showers moving this way, deep reds on the radar. Yet again they reached Sheppey but as they got here the clouds were literally shredded in the sky, meaning what was deep red only 10 miles away ended up as around 30 seconds of rain before the sun came out again.

Disappointing. I can only hope that tomorrow's rain actually delivers!


Leysdown, north Kent
johncs2016
28 August 2025 15:05:37

This week's water scarcity report has just been released by SEPA and if you read the post which I wrote on here on Tuesday in advance of that, you will get a fair idea of which this week's report is likely to say.

On Tuesday, it had already announced that two areas of Scotland were about to have their water scarcity status upgraded from moderate water scarcity, all the way up to significant water scarcity status which is the highest possible level that you can get to. In those areas, restrictions have also been imposed on the amount of water which you are allowed to extract.

With today's report, a number of other areas have also joined those two areas in having their water scarcity status upgraded from moderate water scarcity status to significant water scarcity status with similar restrictions now being imposed in those areas as well.

Those areas cover a large part of NE Scotland including most of Aberdeenshire and even extending into the city of Aberdeen itself in the River Don catchment area. The other areas on significant water scarcity status are in NE Fife and now, even a small part of the Scottish Borders.

Meanwhile, the rest of Fife in addition to a part of central Scotland and other parts of NE Scotland including that part of Aberdeen which is not yet at significant water scarcity status (i.e. the River Dee catchment area) have had their water scarcity upgraded from alert status to moderate water scarcity status.

Even the west of Scotland isn't completely immune from all of this and the Clyde catchment area which includes Glasgow has had its water scarcity status upgraded from early warning status to alert status including that section of the River Tay catchment area which includes the city of Perth and also Helmsdale in the far north of Scotland.

In addition to that, two areas in the north of Scotland including the city of Inverness have had their water scarcity status upgraded from normal status to early warning status.

Apart from that, the status of those areas which I haven't mentioned here remains unchanged which means that Edinburgh along with East Lothian and most of the Scottish Borders remains at moderate water scarcity status for now as there aren't any areas which have actually had their status downgraded since last week.

This is once again showing just how serious this situation is and unless there is some sustained rainfall in the next week, yet more areas are likely to also see their status being upgraded all the way to significant water status with Edinburgh now coming into that firing line as a result of us having now been at moderate water scarcity status for a couple of weeks.


The north of Edinburgh, usually always missing out on snow events which occur not just within the rest of Scotland or the UK, but also within the rest of Edinburgh.

Bolty
28 August 2025 15:12:39

Drought broken here, with a thunderstorm just now. The first and probably only thunderstorm of this summer.


Scott

Blackrod, Lancashire (4 miles south of Chorley) at 156m asl.

My weather station 

moomin75
28 August 2025 17:52:57

Drought broken here, with a thunderstorm just now. The first and probably only thunderstorm of this summer.

Originally Posted by: Bolty 

It's been a shockingly wet summer at certain times from my perspective. 

You may think that sounds absolutely ridiculous, but as a cricket coach, 3 of my 4 championship 3 day matches have been either washed out as draws, or badly rain affected, and three of the other four home games in Oxfordshire were either entirely washed out, or badly rain affected.

I really do think Oxfordshire has had some appallingly wet weather at times this year, ruining my cricket season. 

I am not even joking. Its been absolutely farcical that on 8 of the 10 days of home cricket in Oxfordshire this year, rain has decimated us. Its been that bad! One of the worst I've known!!!


Witney, Oxfordshire

100m ASL

roadrunnerajn
28 August 2025 19:22:06

It's been a shockingly wet summer at certain times from my perspective. 

You may think that sounds absolutely ridiculous, but as a cricket coach, 3 of my 4 championship 3 day matches have been either washed out as draws, or badly rain affected, and three of the other four home games in Oxfordshire were either entirely washed out, or badly rain affected.

I really do think Oxfordshire has had some appallingly wet weather at times this year, ruining my cricket season. 

I am not even joking. Its been absolutely farcical that on 8 of the 10 days of home cricket in Oxfordshire this year, rain has decimated us. Its been that bad! One of the worst I've known!!!

Originally Posted by: moomin75 

Maybe the weather gods think you’re doing a rain dance….not cricket?

Down here is has been very dry… however the heavy rain right now will skew Augusts rain totals.


Germoe, part of the breakaway Celtic Republic. 80m asl
doctormog
28 August 2025 19:33:25

It’s strange that it has been wet in Witney when the reasonably nearby station at Brize Norton indicates a drier than average summer. Perhaps some extremely local effects have been at play?

As John has discussed things remain rather dry up here in NE Scotland. That may change to an extent over the next week or two, but there is not a significant amount of rainfall modelled currently.


johncs2016
28 August 2025 19:41:20

In response to today's weekly report from SEPA, the BBC have responded with this  report on the BBC New website.

This shows just how serious the situation is in many areas, although that has not been the case everywhere and even here in Scotland, there are still some areas in the west of Scotland and in the Shetland Islands which are still at normal status for water scarcity as a result.

That therefore, makes it possible that Moomin has found himself in one of wettest parts of the UK which aren't really affected by this particular issue, although he should also realise that just because it's been wet where he is, that doesn't necessarily mean that it's been wet everywhere and that there are a lot of areas in the UK as a whole (not just here in Scotland) in which water scarcity continues to be a very serious issue.


The north of Edinburgh, usually always missing out on snow events which occur not just within the rest of Scotland or the UK, but also within the rest of Edinburgh.

TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member
28 August 2025 21:42:11

Drought’s over, lads. 

Unlike in Witney, it was actually wet in East Kent in July. 201mm. But August has been dry: until today only 2.4mm at the vineyard. A fall of 4mm today and deluges to come in the following days. 

Meanwhile similar scenes in central France. After zero rain until last week, our Maconnais weather station got 26mm today. 


Brockley, South East London 30m asl
Brian Gaze
28 August 2025 21:57:55

In Berkhamsted, it was very dry! My pond dried up completely for the first time, so it’s surprising to read about Whitney.

UserPostedImage


Brian Gaze

Berkhamsted

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