The Weather Outlook

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johncs2016
01 April 2025 10:22:21
It feels very much like as though it's a complete waste of time creating this thread as it just doesn't appear to rain any more like it used to.

Nevertheless, there is always the outside chance that somebody might have something to report on here so it's always worthwhile creating this thread just in case and as we are now into the start of another new month, this is the very time for doing that.

Furthermore, there are a fe hints in the latest model output that the weather could become a bit more unsettled and wetter later on in the month.

Regardless of how this month pans out though, this is the vary place to post those all important rainfall totals for this month in your area.
The north of Edinburgh, usually always missing out on snow events which occur not just within the rest of Scotland or the UK, but also within the rest of Edinburgh.
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
10 April 2025 19:53:23
Despite rumours swirling around, the MetO feel confident enough to put out a forecast for W Sussex through to next Wednesday with no rain in it; the closest is a 50% chance on Saturday evening
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
johncs2016
10 April 2025 21:24:02
We're now 10 days into the month and are therefore not all that far away from being halfway through this month and yet there has still been absolutely no recorded rainfall during this month so far at Edinburgh Gogarbank thus showing us that it really doesn't rain here any more like it used to.
The north of Edinburgh, usually always missing out on snow events which occur not just within the rest of Scotland or the UK, but also within the rest of Edinburgh.
fairweather
11 April 2025 00:42:33

We're now 10 days into the month and are therefore not all that far away from being halfway through this month and yet there has still been absolutely no recorded rainfall during this month so far at Edinburgh Gogarbank thus showing us that it really doesn't rain here any more like it used to.

Originally Posted by: johncs2016 


You should worry - it's more like 6 weeks here and we can't easily make it up in the South East!
S.Essex, 42m ASL
Retron
11 April 2025 05:01:51
17 days since the last rain here (and that was only 0.25mm). None at all in April so far.
Leysdown, north Kent
NMA
  • NMA
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11 April 2025 09:41:30

Despite rumours swirling around, the MetO feel confident enough to put out a forecast for W Sussex through to next Wednesday with no rain in it; the closest is a 50% chance on Saturday evening

Originally Posted by: DEW 


A few days ago, Saturday (tomorrow) was going to be dry with rain moving in later in the afternoon. The pictorial Met office app has now given up on that possibility for me, though it was bullish for heavy overnight rain Saturday night into Sunday just a couple of days ago in both written and pictorial..
The written part now suggests that the rain will be heavy on Tuesday IMBY. I wouldn't bet on it raining at any time soon though here.


Vale of the Great Dairies
South Dorset
Elevation 60m 197ft
DEW
  • DEW
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13 April 2025 06:02:58
Rain to the east of us, rain to the west of us - the showers seem to dry up as they approach central S England, and locally we may have to wait until Friday for more general rain - not a lot even then.
https://weather.metoffice.gov.uk/maps-and-charts/rainfall-radar-forecast-map 

War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
johncs2016
13 April 2025 06:30:46

Rain to the east of us, rain to the west of us - the showers seem to dry up as they approach central S England, and locally we may have to wait until Friday for more general rain - not a lot even then.
https://weather.metoffice.gov.uk/maps-and-charts/rainfall-radar-forecast-map 

Originally Posted by: DEW 


This is all showing once again that it just doesn't rain here any more like it used to and as we didn't even get any of the overnight rain which was promised in the forecasts, we still continue to have no recorded rainfall here in Edinburgh during this month so far.

Furthermore, the charts which you have linked to are currently showing that even on Friday, it is only just Wales and the south of England along with perhaps the SE corner of Northern Ireland which gets any rain at all with the rest of the UK continuing to get absolutely nothing in that regard.

The southerners on this forum always moan about rainfall deficits in their area being difficult to make up but the actually reality is that they actually have nothing to moan about in that regard because going forward, that is probably where the largest bulk of our future rainfall is going to end up falling on average.

Even the statistics over the last few years, months and seasons are already showing that really well because I've now lost track of the number of months, seasons and years in which it has been the southern half of the UK which has had the most amount of rain due to a southwards shift in the jet stream for much of the time, and an increase in the number of secondary lows passing to our south even when that isn't the case and yet all of that is something which the southerners seem to forget when they're moaning about rainfall deficits in their area.

This doesn't mean that we won't continue to see the wet weather affect mostly the north of the UK at times but even when that happens, it is generally the west of Scotland and possibly England which gets the biggest brunt of that with a lot of that influence being lost as that wet weather approaches locations such as here in SE Scotland in particular.

This means that if there is a location where people need to worry about future water shortages from a lack of rainfall, it is really here in SE Scotland because I can only see our climate becoming more arid and desert-like on average in the future as a result.

Putting all of that together, the whole concept of a wetter north/drier south is clearly increasingly becoming something from the past which is eventually no longer going be the case and because of that, forecasts need to stop referring to that as being the average scenario and start to look at that in terms of what lies ahead in the future which is clearly going to be completely different from that. 
The north of Edinburgh, usually always missing out on snow events which occur not just within the rest of Scotland or the UK, but also within the rest of Edinburgh.
tierradelfuego
13 April 2025 20:00:05
BOOM!!! 0.2mm on the month
Bucklebury
West Berkshire Downs AONB
135m ASL

VP2 with daytime FARS
Rainfall collector separated at ground level
Anemometer separated above roof level
WeatherLink Live (Byles Green Weather)
johncs2016
14 April 2025 18:32:41
The latest rainfall data for Edinburgh Gogarbank is as follows:

Data For Recent Days

24 hour total up to 10 am BST (09:00 UTC) this morning: 3.6 mm
Total since 10 am BST (09:00 UTC) this morning: 4.8 mm (as at 6:40 pm BST (17:40 UTC) this evening on Monday 14 April 2025)

Monthly Data

Total for this month so far: 8.4 mm (18.3% of 1991-2020 April average)
Number of rain days during this month: 2 (21.7% of 1991-2020 April average)
Number of dry days during this month: 12

Seasonal Data

Total for this spring so far: 36.2 mm (24.4% of 1991-2020 spring average)
Number of rain days during this spring: 6 (19.8% of 1991-2020 spring average)
Number of dry days during this spring: 30

Annual Data

Total for this year so far: 135.0 mm (17.2% of 1991-2020 annual average)
Number of rain days during this year: 24 (17.5% of 1991-2020 annual average)
Number of dry days during this year: 60

Note

This data has been obtained from https://www.ogimet.com  in raw BUFR format, and then converted into a more readable form by my own python script.

The north of Edinburgh, usually always missing out on snow events which occur not just within the rest of Scotland or the UK, but also within the rest of Edinburgh.
idj20
15 April 2025 09:35:45
A soil soaking lawn revitalising 17 mm (more than twice the amount fallen in the past six weeks) of rain fell in my backyard here at Folkestone since midnight, but I think West Kent may have had higher amounts (25 to 30 mm). However, this afternoon/early evenings rain associated with a northwards travelling compact low over the UK doesn't look like amounting to much for me (more like a SW England & Wales thing).

Home location: Folkestone Harbour.
Northern Sky
15 April 2025 11:05:41
We keep seeing rain forecast here, only to see it disappear as the models get closer. I'm so sick of dry weather now.
sunny coast
15 April 2025 19:39:55
13mm since mid night  a good soak for the garden 
sunny coast
15 April 2025 20:43:19
13mm since mid night  a good soak for the garden 
Northern Sky
16 April 2025 10:27:15
A torrential downpour of 1.5mm to kick start the month...

Nothing forecast in the models for at least a week, even then it'll probably disappear as it gets nearer. 😞
StoneCroze
16 April 2025 11:56:43
3.9mm
Alderney, Channel Islands. (previously known as Beaufort)
four
  • four
  • Advanced Member
16 April 2025 12:20:03
2.8mm here now and unlikely to be any more until after Easter.
Meanwhile a friend on holiday in Cornwall says they had 50mm yesterday.
NMA
  • NMA
  • Advanced Member
17 April 2025 05:50:00
The long dry continues here. This is a view of a place across the road from me yesterday evening.
There was a short (5 mins) sharp shower in the morning that damped the ground.
But a few hours later you'd have forgotten there was rain.
The grass has stopped growing which is early for here.
UserPostedImage
UserPostedImage
Vale of the Great Dairies
South Dorset
Elevation 60m 197ft
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
17 April 2025 06:02:04

The long dry continues here. This is a view of a place across the road from me yesterday evening.
There was a short (5 mins) sharp shower in the morning that damped the ground.
But a few hours later you'd have forgotten there was rain.
The grass has stopped growing which is early for here.
UserPostedImage
UserPostedImage

Originally Posted by: NMA 



War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
17 April 2025 06:06:00

The long dry continues here. This is a view of a place across the road from me yesterday evening.
There was a short (5 mins) sharp shower in the morning that damped the ground.
But a few hours later you'd have forgotten there was rain.
The grass has stopped growing which is early for here.

Originally Posted by: NMA 


This is putting "Ash before the oak, we shall have a soak" maxim to a severe test as the ash was indeed before the oak - just - in several areas along the south coast. Maybe things will reverse and stay that way?
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
NMA
  • NMA
  • Advanced Member
17 April 2025 06:27:21
Or how about "when the oak is out before the ash be ready for a splash" A splash meaning a middling inconsequential sprinkle of rain.
Instead of "when the ash is out before the oak be ready for a soak" That one meaning a ground bursting soak.
The oak trees are certainly coming into leaf here. The ash more in flowering mode and no signs of leaf yet.
Whatever, it's incredibly dry here. Still.


Vale of the Great Dairies
South Dorset
Elevation 60m 197ft
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
17 April 2025 06:49:34

Or how about "when the oak is out before the ash be ready for a splash" A splash meaning a middling inconsequential sprinkle of rain.
Instead of "when the ash is out before the oak be ready for a soak" That one meaning a ground bursting soak.
The oak trees are certainly coming into leaf here. The ash more in flowering mode and no signs of leaf yet.
Whatever, it's incredibly dry here. Still.

Originally Posted by: NMA 


Ambiguous - I understood the saying to refer to the flowers/catkins
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
NMA
  • NMA
  • Advanced Member
17 April 2025 06:57:50
Indeed it is. I'm out right now and on mobile for the day but will be interested to hear others interpretations.   Thick fog in places.
Vale of the Great Dairies
South Dorset
Elevation 60m 197ft
johncs2016
17 April 2025 07:30:44
The latest rainfall data for Edinburgh Gogarbank is as follows:

Data For Recent Days

24 hour total up to 10 am BST (09:00 UTC) yesterday morning: 0.4 mm
Total since 10 am BST (09:00 UTC) yesterday morning: 7.8 mm (as at 7:40 am BST (06:40 UTC) this morning on Thursday 17 April 2025)

Monthly Data

Total for this month so far: 17.2 mm (37.5% of 1991-2020 April average)
Number of rain days during this month: 3 (32.6% of 1991-2020 April average)
Number of dry days during this month: 12

Seasonal Data

Total for this spring so far: 45.0 mm (30.3% of 1991-2020 spring average)
Number of rain days during this spring: 7 (23.1% of 1991-2020 spring average)
Number of dry days during this spring: 30

Annual Data

Total for this year so far: 143.8 mm (18.3% of 1991-2020 annual average)
Number of rain days during this year: 25 (18.2% of 1991-2020 annual average)
Number of dry days during this year: 60

Note

This data has been obtained from https://www.ogimet.com  in raw BUFR format, and then converted into a more readable form by my own python script.

The north of Edinburgh, usually always missing out on snow events which occur not just within the rest of Scotland or the UK, but also within the rest of Edinburgh.
speckledjim
18 April 2025 06:48:03
2.8mm to date
Thorner, West Yorkshire


Journalism is organised gossip

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