The Weather Outlook

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Quantum
  • Quantum
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
Saturday, February 22, 2025 11:48:58 AM
Ultra rare 'medicane' has formed in the black sea.

25/26 (850hpa temp) 11 days snow/sleet falling

18/11 (-4) 19/11 (-6) 20/11 (-6) 01/01 (-7) 04/01 (-10) 10/01 (-7) 11/01 (-3) 30/01 (-1) 13/02 (-6) 15/02 (-4) 18/02 (-6)

24/25 10d

18/11 (-6) 19/11 (-6) 23/11 (-2) 22/12 (-5) 04/01 (-5) 05/01 (0)14/02 (0) 15/02 (0)12/03 (-6) 13/03 (-6)

23/24 8d

29/11 (-6) 30/11 (-6) 02/12 (-5) 03/12 (-5) 04/12 (-3) 16/01 (-3) 18/01 (-8)08/02 (-5)

22/23 7d

18/12 (-1)06/03 (-6) 08/03 (-8) 09/03 (-6) 10/03 (-8) 11/03 (-5) 14/03 (-6)

21/22 12d

Retron
Saturday, February 22, 2025 11:55:00 AM
That's not a "medicane", not with -16 850s!

At best it's a polar low but even that's doubtful as it has troughs circulating around it and the isobars don't look tight enough:

https://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/fax/fax0.gif?01-18 

https://images.meteociel.fr/im/68/16085/fax0srzk2.gif )

Leysdown, north Kent
Quantum
  • Quantum
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
Saturday, February 22, 2025 12:04:28 PM

That's not a "medicane", not with -16 850s!

At best it's a polar low but even that's doubtful as it has troughs circulating around it and the isobars don't look tight enough:

https://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/fax/fax0.gif?01-18 

https://images.meteociel.fr/im/68/16085/fax0srzk2.gif )

Originally Posted by: Retron 

Tbh the appearence looks more like a medicane than a polar low (polar lows are smaller and shallower). And winter medicanes can often form under very cold uppers; cold air aloft generates that strong vertical temperature gradient required for these barotropic systems. I wouldn't read too much into the fax charts or model outputs; these systems are hard to pick up correctly. Though I will say the GFS has a tightly bound warm core visible:

https://modeles16.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2025022206/gfs-6-12.png?6 

25/26 (850hpa temp) 11 days snow/sleet falling

18/11 (-4) 19/11 (-6) 20/11 (-6) 01/01 (-7) 04/01 (-10) 10/01 (-7) 11/01 (-3) 30/01 (-1) 13/02 (-6) 15/02 (-4) 18/02 (-6)

24/25 10d

18/11 (-6) 19/11 (-6) 23/11 (-2) 22/12 (-5) 04/01 (-5) 05/01 (0)14/02 (0) 15/02 (0)12/03 (-6) 13/03 (-6)

23/24 8d

29/11 (-6) 30/11 (-6) 02/12 (-5) 03/12 (-5) 04/12 (-3) 16/01 (-3) 18/01 (-8)08/02 (-5)

22/23 7d

18/12 (-1)06/03 (-6) 08/03 (-8) 09/03 (-6) 10/03 (-8) 11/03 (-5) 14/03 (-6)

21/22 12d

Quantum
  • Quantum
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
Saturday, February 22, 2025 1:08:10 PM
From the satellite presentation it looks more tropical than subtropical. None of the hebert profiles seem to fit.

I'd put it at a spiral band pattern, barely a T3.0

A T3.0 in the atlantic corresponds to a mid level TS 52mph/1000mb

Though my guess it would be slightly lower, perhaps something like a T2.8 which would put it probably closer to something like 48mph. For medicanes, the environment is slightly higher pressure than the atlantic so the pressure is higher for a given pressure gradient so MSLP probably around 1005mb based on this cloud pattern.

We need some more ASCAT flights and observations.

25/26 (850hpa temp) 11 days snow/sleet falling

18/11 (-4) 19/11 (-6) 20/11 (-6) 01/01 (-7) 04/01 (-10) 10/01 (-7) 11/01 (-3) 30/01 (-1) 13/02 (-6) 15/02 (-4) 18/02 (-6)

24/25 10d

18/11 (-6) 19/11 (-6) 23/11 (-2) 22/12 (-5) 04/01 (-5) 05/01 (0)14/02 (0) 15/02 (0)12/03 (-6) 13/03 (-6)

23/24 8d

29/11 (-6) 30/11 (-6) 02/12 (-5) 03/12 (-5) 04/12 (-3) 16/01 (-3) 18/01 (-8)08/02 (-5)

22/23 7d

18/12 (-1)06/03 (-6) 08/03 (-8) 09/03 (-6) 10/03 (-8) 11/03 (-5) 14/03 (-6)

21/22 12d

DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
Saturday, February 22, 2025 1:48:02 PM
Is there a danger that you're trying to make a real phenomenon fit into one of a limited number of classifications, none of which adequately describe what's happening?
War is God's way of teaching Americans geography - Ambrose Bierce

Chichester 12m asl

Gandalf The White
Saturday, February 22, 2025 1:52:19 PM

Is there a danger that you're trying to make a real phenomenon fit into one of a limited number of classifications, none of which adequately describe what's happening?

Originally Posted by: DEW 

Wouldn’t that be extraordinary though?  Something not fitting any existing category?

Location: South Cambridgeshire

130 metres ASL

52.0N 0.1E



Quantum
  • Quantum
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
Saturday, February 22, 2025 2:00:17 PM

Is there a danger that you're trying to make a real phenomenon fit into one of a limited number of classifications, none of which adequately describe what's happening?

Originally Posted by: DEW 

Although ultra rare black sea tropical like storms have happened. In terms of frequency, medicanes happen maybe a few times a year (or more in busy years) whereas these things are maybe a few times a decade. Still, in terms of how they look and the conditions required to create them and so on they are very very similar to medicanes such that I'd include them in the same category.

25/26 (850hpa temp) 11 days snow/sleet falling

18/11 (-4) 19/11 (-6) 20/11 (-6) 01/01 (-7) 04/01 (-10) 10/01 (-7) 11/01 (-3) 30/01 (-1) 13/02 (-6) 15/02 (-4) 18/02 (-6)

24/25 10d

18/11 (-6) 19/11 (-6) 23/11 (-2) 22/12 (-5) 04/01 (-5) 05/01 (0)14/02 (0) 15/02 (0)12/03 (-6) 13/03 (-6)

23/24 8d

29/11 (-6) 30/11 (-6) 02/12 (-5) 03/12 (-5) 04/12 (-3) 16/01 (-3) 18/01 (-8)08/02 (-5)

22/23 7d

18/12 (-1)06/03 (-6) 08/03 (-8) 09/03 (-6) 10/03 (-8) 11/03 (-5) 14/03 (-6)

21/22 12d

Quantum
  • Quantum
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
Saturday, February 22, 2025 8:20:27 PM
Its getting stronger, eyewall trying to develop now. Its one of the more impressive of these types of systems I've seen.
25/26 (850hpa temp) 11 days snow/sleet falling

18/11 (-4) 19/11 (-6) 20/11 (-6) 01/01 (-7) 04/01 (-10) 10/01 (-7) 11/01 (-3) 30/01 (-1) 13/02 (-6) 15/02 (-4) 18/02 (-6)

24/25 10d

18/11 (-6) 19/11 (-6) 23/11 (-2) 22/12 (-5) 04/01 (-5) 05/01 (0)14/02 (0) 15/02 (0)12/03 (-6) 13/03 (-6)

23/24 8d

29/11 (-6) 30/11 (-6) 02/12 (-5) 03/12 (-5) 04/12 (-3) 16/01 (-3) 18/01 (-8)08/02 (-5)

22/23 7d

18/12 (-1)06/03 (-6) 08/03 (-8) 09/03 (-6) 10/03 (-8) 11/03 (-5) 14/03 (-6)

21/22 12d

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