The Weather Outlook

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Brian Gaze
04 January 2025 10:19:20
Interesting article by Chris Fawkes at BBC Weather:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/articles/crmzvekrlg2o 

The answer to the question is that the number of snow days has fallen in recent decades. I suspect most of us were aware of that, but the article provides some evidence to back the assertion.


Brian Gaze

Berkhamsted

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"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan

GezM
  • GezM
  • Advanced Member
04 January 2025 21:42:34

Interesting article by Chris Fawkes at BBC Weather:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/articles/crmzvekrlg2o 

The answer to the question is that the number of snow days has fallen in recent decades. I suspect most of us were aware of that, but the article provides some evidence to back the assertion.

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

Interesting stats. Amazing to see how much the darker colours have moved north. Looking at my part of Hertfordshire,  I'm still in the 10 to 20 days a year area. I'm struggling to remember when we last had 5 days of snow in a year let alone 10 or 20. I'm sure those average figures are going to keep falling. 


Living in St Albans, Herts (116m asl)

Working at Luton Airport, Beds (160m asl)

scillydave
04 January 2025 21:45:52
It'd be interesting to see what the last map looked like without 2009/10 included. I think it would be an even bleaker picture.
Currently living at roughly 65m asl North of Cowbridge in the Vale of Glamorgan.

Formerly of, Birdlip, highest village in the Cotswolds and snow heaven in winter; Hawkinge in Kent - roof of the South downs and Isles of Scilly, paradise in the UK.

Retron
05 January 2025 04:59:15
Annoyingly those MetO sleet/snow falling charts only go up to 81-10, they've not produced them for 91-20. Not sure why!

I've been keeping detailed records here since winter 2009/10, and bearing in mind I'm obsessive about observing even a single flake of sleet! Of course we have fewer days now than we did in the 80s/90s, but the reasons for that are many (including the over a degree of warming since then, and the loss of our easterlies).

FWIW, my records show the following in terms of days of sleet or snow, per calendar year, and at any time during each day, falling here. It'd be interesting to compare them with other locations!

By far the majority of these days are sleet, snow is much less common.

2009 - 2

2010 - 23 (includes both the 2009/10 snow in January and the 2010 snow in November/December)

2011 - 6

2012 - 7

2013 - 24

2014 - 7

2015 - zero

2016 - 4

2017 - 4

2018 - 17

2019 - 3

2020 - zero

2021 - 9

2022 - 2

2023 - 4

2024 - 3

2025 - 2 (so far)

That averages out to just under 7 days per year. The 81-10 average here was less than 10, so that fits well.

The days of snow on the ground maps are available for 91-20, though, and they show that here we've gone from 5-10 in 81-10 to less than 5 in 91-20. That's no surprise to anyone, and the fact it includes snowy spells of the 90s means it'll just go down even further in the next edition. My own records show an average of 2.8 days with a >50% snow cover at 9AM per year since 2009.

You can see the MetO maps in their full size here, via the average maps tab:

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/maps-and-data/location-specific-long-term-averages/u10eu42f9 


Leysdown, north Kent
NMA
  • NMA
  • Advanced Member
09 January 2025 08:12:16
For another example of 'we get less snow than we used to', have a look at this story.

https://www.dorsetecho.co.uk/news/24842981.snow-causes-travel-disruption-dorset/ 

The pictures and text sum up where we are today.

https://www.facebook.com/DWFRSBridportFireStation/posts/1000537965436398?ref=embed_post 

Snow has been arrived sic in parts of #Dorset this afternoon which is likely to cause some disruption on our roads. 

I'm not even 100% sure this picture from DWFRS is from yesterday.


Vale of the Great Dairies

South Dorset

Elevation 60m 197ft

Retron
09 January 2025 08:23:02

For another example of 'we get less snow than we used to', have a look at this story.

https://www.dorsetecho.co.uk/news/24842981.snow-causes-travel-disruption-dorset/ 

The pictures and text sum up where we are today.

Originally Posted by: NMA 

Yup, much the same with our local KentOnline website - a few pictures of a dusting in areas west of here, the sort of thing that used to serve as a "warm up" back in the day!

That Independent article of 25 years ago,  much-ridiculed by the sceptics, is slowly but surely coming true. I doubt I'll ever see a foot of level snow again IMBY, and I suspect I'll die without having seen a proper White Christmas, 1970 style! Depressing, frankly, if you're a snow lover as I am, but at least I have the memories of the decent winters of the 80s, 90s, and the odd once since then.


Leysdown, north Kent
Brian Gaze
09 January 2025 10:50:13
The pictures I've been sent from York and Stockport suggest this cold spell would be very "run of the mill" in those areas during the 1980s. The amount of snow in York is definitely nothing of note when benchmarked against that era, although compared to recent years it is clearly one of the more significant falls. 
Brian Gaze

Berkhamsted

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"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan

Quantum
09 January 2025 10:56:51
My personal gut feeling is that 'falling snow' has not suffered all that much.

What really does seem to have gone down is dry snow, settling snow, and long lasting snow on the ground. Snow when it does fall, is just so wet and pointless these days.


25/26 (850hpa temp) 11 days snow/sleet falling

18/11 (-4) 19/11 (-6) 20/11 (-6) 01/01 (-7) 04/01 (-10) 10/01 (-7) 11/01 (-3) 30/01 (-1) 13/02 (-6) 15/02 (-4) 18/02 (-6)

24/25 10d

18/11 (-6) 19/11 (-6) 23/11 (-2) 22/12 (-5) 04/01 (-5) 05/01 (0)14/02 (0) 15/02 (0)12/03 (-6) 13/03 (-6)

23/24 8d

29/11 (-6) 30/11 (-6) 02/12 (-5) 03/12 (-5) 04/12 (-3) 16/01 (-3) 18/01 (-8)08/02 (-5)

22/23 7d

18/12 (-1)06/03 (-6) 08/03 (-8) 09/03 (-6) 10/03 (-8) 11/03 (-5) 14/03 (-6)

21/22 12d

jhall
09 January 2025 11:03:32
It occurs to me that, because a handful of very snowy years can have a big effect on the arithmetic mean, the median number of days per year might be a more information statistic. That's even more the case if you look at number of days with snow lying rather than number of days with snow or sleet falling.

One way to get the number of days up might be to have more documentaries about cold winters on TV, as the two instances of snow here so far this winter - on Saturday evening and yesterday (Wednesday) evening - have both coincided with such documentaries being shown. 🙂


Cranleigh, Surrey
Quantum
09 January 2025 11:05:57

It occurs to me that, because a handful of very snowy years can have a big effect on the arithmetic mean, the median number of days per year might be a more information statistic. That's even more the case if you look at number of days with snow lying rather than number of days with snow or sleet falling.

One way to get the number of days up might be to have more documentaries about cold winters on TV, as the two instances of snow here so far this winter - on Saturday evening and yesterday (Wednesday) evening - have both coincided with such documentaries being shown. :)

Originally Posted by: jhall 

This is a very good point.


25/26 (850hpa temp) 11 days snow/sleet falling

18/11 (-4) 19/11 (-6) 20/11 (-6) 01/01 (-7) 04/01 (-10) 10/01 (-7) 11/01 (-3) 30/01 (-1) 13/02 (-6) 15/02 (-4) 18/02 (-6)

24/25 10d

18/11 (-6) 19/11 (-6) 23/11 (-2) 22/12 (-5) 04/01 (-5) 05/01 (0)14/02 (0) 15/02 (0)12/03 (-6) 13/03 (-6)

23/24 8d

29/11 (-6) 30/11 (-6) 02/12 (-5) 03/12 (-5) 04/12 (-3) 16/01 (-3) 18/01 (-8)08/02 (-5)

22/23 7d

18/12 (-1)06/03 (-6) 08/03 (-8) 09/03 (-6) 10/03 (-8) 11/03 (-5) 14/03 (-6)

21/22 12d

Retron
09 January 2025 11:09:00

My personal gut feeling is that 'falling snow' has not suffered all that much.

What really does seem to have gone down is dry snow, settling snow, and long lasting snow on the ground. Snow when it does fall, is just so wet and pointless these days.

Originally Posted by: Quantum 

What's happened, of course, is that our entire climate has shifted north, by a couple if not a few hundred miles.

Thus you, "up north", are still cold enough to see snow, but it's less likely to be cold enough for powder etc.

Us lot "down south", or rather in the SE, which seems to be most affected, are now too warm much of the time to even see wet snow - last night being a case in point; take out the 1.2C of January warming since the 80s and the sleet yesterday evening would have been wet snow, and that would then have settled and modified the temperature down over the next few days.

FWIW, my records for >=50% coverage of snow on the ground at 9AM (the traditional way to measure a "snow on the ground" day) is as follows:

Winter of 2010/11: 9 days

2011/2: 4 days

2012/3: 6 days

2013/4: Zero

2014/5: Zero

2015/6: Zero

2016/7: Zero

2017/8: 5 days ("Beast from the East")

2018/9: Zero

2019/20: Zero

2020/1: 7 days

2021/2: Zero

2022/3: Zero

2023/4: Zero

2024/5: Zero

Lots of zeroes there! The number of snowless years (in terms of settled snow) has gradually crept up since the 80s (which had three snowless years, funnily enough all consecutive years at the end of the decade).


Leysdown, north Kent
four
  • four
  • Advanced Member
09 January 2025 12:58:57
The early 70s was rather unsnowy which was rather annoying since we only managed 2 or 3 days off school.

Whereas late 70s into early 80s was very snowy.

It's striking that winters with lots of snow or little snow tend to group together similarly 2009/10/13 were exceptionally cold and often snowy 2013 March was coldest in decades and this was January.

https://i.postimg.cc/T1c19r65/8395432273-3fe3d9ddd7-h-copy.jpg 

UserPostedImage


Retron
09 January 2025 13:07:55

The early 70s was rather unsnowy which was rather annoying since we only managed 2 or 3 days off school.

Whereas late 70s into early 80s was very snowy.

It's striking that winters with lots of snow or little snow tend to group together similarly 2009/10/13 were exceptionally cold and often snowy 2013 March was coldest in decades and this was January.

Originally Posted by: four 

As I've mentioned elsewhere on here, the big change since the 80s and 90s is the complete absence of the midwinter easterly, the classic Siberian/Scandinavian High combo. I still find it intriguing how they've just gone over the past 30 or so years. The back end of Feb 2018 showed that if you can get that link up it'll still deliver deep snow and ice days etc, but we're either incredibly unlucky or something's flipped in the climate to stop it happening in the heart of winter... it's why I don't think I'll ever see a proper midwinter easterly again in my lifetime, as that's likely to be another 25 years or so at most.


Leysdown, north Kent
four
  • four
  • Advanced Member
09 January 2025 13:12:36
If a proper easterly sets up the SE can be colder than anywhere due to shorter track across sea.

Since Russia and Eastern Europe seem just as cold as ever it would be the same now if/when a long fetch easterly happens.

It was never a particularly common thing but when it does happen makes a memorable event for areas that rarely see 2" and don't cope very well due to high traffic volumes and lack of snow clearing experience and machinery.

Whereas here a foot or so is expected most years and by 10am most things proceed as normal provided it isn't constantly drifting.


Brian Gaze
09 January 2025 13:42:10

If a proper easterly sets up the SE can be colder than anywhere due to shorter track across sea.

Since Russia and Eastern Europe seem just as cold as ever it would be the same now if/when a long fetch easterly happens.

It was never a particularly common thing but when it does happen makes a memorable event for areas that rarely see 2" and don't cope very well due to high traffic volumes and lack of snow clearing experience and machinery.

Whereas here a foot or so is expected most years and by 10am most things proceed as normal provided it isn't constantly drifting.

Originally Posted by: four 

York is seeing significantly less snow than it was in the 80s. Also, heavy snow showers (away from the NYM) near the east coast seem to be less of a thing than they were.


Brian Gaze

Berkhamsted

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"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan

Retron
09 January 2025 13:48:40

If a proper easterly sets up the SE can be colder than anywhere due to shorter track across sea.

Since Russia and Eastern Europe seem just as cold as ever it would be the same now if/when a long fetch easterly happens.

It was never a particularly common thing but when it does happen makes a memorable event for areas that rarely see 2" and don't cope very well due to high traffic volumes and lack of snow clearing experience and machinery.

Whereas here a foot or so is expected most years and by 10am most things proceed as normal provided it isn't constantly drifting.

Originally Posted by: four 

I've lived here for 43 years, although to be fair as I moved in when I was 2 I can't remember the first couple of winters! I do remember the ones after that, though, and Scandinavian Highs were common in the 80s - there was more than a foot of snow here a few times, over 2ft of level snow in 1987. It then fizzled out a bit, came back in 91, (Nov) 93, 95/6, 96/7... and that was it.

The last prolonged easterly here was 20 years ago, at the very end of winter, and of course there was the Beast in 2018 - also at the end of winter, and a very brief affair compared to what we had when I was a youngster.

We're now at the stage where people get excited about half an inch of slushy snow (something not seen here for 4 years, come to that) and younger people now can't remember proper snow. I guess the real oldies would have said the same about us 80s kids, as 47 / 62 were beyond anything seen then...

Incidentally when I looked up charts for my "death of the midwinter easterly" thread a few years back, I noted every decade had at least 1 or 2 midwinter easterlies, but they stopped after 1997. Midwinter in this case meaning between mid-December and mid-February, and an easterly being the classic pattern of high pressure over Scandinavia advecting deep cold, with ice days, several days of snow on the ground etc. Most of them "reloaded" to an extent too, and that's what was disappointing with 2018 - it came, it dumped, it went, all in the space of 5 days!


Leysdown, north Kent
Snow Hoper
09 January 2025 14:24:57
I think it definitely does. I'd also like to know if the United states have increased or decreased over the same time period.
Going to war over religion is like killing each other to see who has the better imaginary friend.

Home : Mid Suffolk.

48m Asl

westv
09 January 2025 15:32:06
The 16 year cycle seems to indicate the next big dump might be 2026 or 2027.
Big heat in May

Summer will be spray.

Jiries
09 January 2025 15:36:43

I think it definitely does. I'd also like to know if the United states have increased or decreased over the same time period.

Originally Posted by: Snow Hoper 

Toronto look more less snow than before and not full winter snow cover as it used to be, it becoming like UK part time snow events like in the 1980's here.

Snow had gone worst with quality and temperatures far too high for any snow.  Last decent snow that was powdery enough was back in 2021 here.  Recently most snow are slush puppy type and i will no longer go out to enjoy or walk around with it, it too wet, dirty and disappeared too fast.  By the time you put your jacket, hat and gloves the snow gone.  Temperatres at day was far too high and always at less cold levels.  I consider less cold for temps 2-6C, Average for winter 7-8C and mild over 9C.  Very cold for 1C to below 0C, bitterly for below -5C maxes.

All the snow events in the past was under subzero temps, sub -10C at nights, powder snow cover follow by sunny weather with extreme low temps at night where you used to see ice in the windows.

I was talking to the lady in the post office while quiet about the snow and how rubbish it was lately compare to the past, she also remember the 1980's winters and was very normal to get them as it part of the average for winter.  Average mean some cold snow days, some mild days and average days.

DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
09 January 2025 16:00:32
Data at https://durhamukweather.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/bonacina.html

At a quick glance, the frequency of snowfalls for Britain s a whole hasn't altered much, but the episodes cited over the last decade have almost all been for northern regions and especially over hills.


War is God's way of teaching Americans geography - Ambrose Bierce

Chichester 12m asl

Quantum
09 January 2025 16:09:34

York is seeing significantly less snow than it was in the 80s. Also, heavy snow showers (away from the NYM) near the east coast seem to be less of a thing than they were.

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

I think this is because cold spells don't have the longevity they used to. 2-3 day cold spells are never going to be snow shower machines for E England away from favoured spots, not just because cold air hasn't yet established but because there will inevitably be shearing of the snow showers due to the upper and lower geopotential (or pressure) surfaces being misaligned. Also you really do need an easterly component otherwise the sea breeze and ageostrophic wind pushes everything back out to sea.


25/26 (850hpa temp) 11 days snow/sleet falling

18/11 (-4) 19/11 (-6) 20/11 (-6) 01/01 (-7) 04/01 (-10) 10/01 (-7) 11/01 (-3) 30/01 (-1) 13/02 (-6) 15/02 (-4) 18/02 (-6)

24/25 10d

18/11 (-6) 19/11 (-6) 23/11 (-2) 22/12 (-5) 04/01 (-5) 05/01 (0)14/02 (0) 15/02 (0)12/03 (-6) 13/03 (-6)

23/24 8d

29/11 (-6) 30/11 (-6) 02/12 (-5) 03/12 (-5) 04/12 (-3) 16/01 (-3) 18/01 (-8)08/02 (-5)

22/23 7d

18/12 (-1)06/03 (-6) 08/03 (-8) 09/03 (-6) 10/03 (-8) 11/03 (-5) 14/03 (-6)

21/22 12d

Tim A
09 January 2025 16:25:55
Sure it was snowier in the 60's to 80's but didn't experience that period myself. 

Not sure there are really less big snowfalls here than there were growing up in the 90's.    Some of the best events have been 2009 onwards.  More precipitation in a warmer world,, more chance of a big snowfall.  But I think there is an increasing marginality to it, less lower temps and more of a difference between here and the Vale of York.  Of course sadly, over further time in a warming world, the number of big events will reduce here too. 

I think there are less wintry showers and dustings from westerlies than there used to be though. 


Tim

NW Leeds

187m asl

 My PWS 

jhall
09 January 2025 16:51:15

If a proper easterly sets up the SE can be colder than anywhere due to shorter track across sea.

Since Russia and Eastern Europe seem just as cold as ever it would be the same now if/when a long fetch easterly happens.

It was never a particularly common thing but when it does happen makes a memorable event for areas that rarely see 2" and don't cope very well due to high traffic volumes and lack of snow clearing experience and machinery.

Whereas here a foot or so is expected most years and by 10am most things proceed as normal provided it isn't constantly drifting.

Originally Posted by: four 

I agree with most of that, except that my impression is that it's far rarer for eastern Europe and European Russia to be severely cold than it used to be. I've been taking an interest for many years in the list of temperatures for European cities that is posted in my newspaper each day. It's been quite a few years now since I last saw a daily maximum temperature for Moscow of less than zero Fahrenheit (-18C), which used to happen every now and again. If Napoleon or Hitler had invaded Russia with the present climate, they would probably have found it a lot easier! 


Cranleigh, Surrey
roadrunnerajn
09 January 2025 18:04:47
I grew up on the edge of the Peak District for the first 17 years and since then I’ve lived in Scotland,Norfolk, Northumberland and now Cornwall. 

My years in Derbyshire were in the 70s and 80s and from memory the mid 70s were not that good, if we were lucky we had about two snow to rain transient events during those winters. The winters of 78,79 were very good with many snowfalls and the sledge getting good use. The 80s were also good until 88.

After that there have not been too many big falls where I have lived. I know 91 and 95  were not too bad and there was a week of snow in Norfolk in February 96.

This century has had some very good winters but also many poor ones. I would say that deep long lived snowfalls across southern England have definitely become fewer and further between. 


Germoe, part of the breakaway Celtic Republic. 80m asl
Devonian
09 January 2025 18:08:50

I agree with most of that, except that my impression is that it's far rarer for eastern Europe and European Russia to be severely cold than it used to be. I've been taking an interest for many years in the list of temperatures for European cities that is posted in my newspaper each day. It's been quite a few years now since I last saw a daily maximum temperature for Moscow of less than zero Fahrenheit (-18C), which used to happen every now and again. If Napoleon or Hitler had invaded Russia with the present climate, they would probably have found it a lot easier! 

Originally Posted by: jhall 

Current temperature in Moscow? -1C.

Enough said.

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