The Weather Outlook

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Essan
05 January 2025 16:14:55
MetO automated forecast and BBC both have us up to 11c now.   It's actually 3.3c
Andy

Evesham, Worcs, Albion - 35m asl

Weather & Earth Science News 

Look in the doubt we've wallowed, look at the leaders we've followed, look at the lies we've swallowed, and I don't want to hear no more

doctormog
05 January 2025 16:15:50

MetO automated forecast and BBC both have us up to 11c now.   It's actually 3.3c

Originally Posted by: Essan 

Okay you win. 😀🤣


Windy Willow
05 January 2025 17:04:41
The BBC have my area at 8c when it's actually just over 5c. Not as cold as some areas but it's definitely not as warm as forecast, however the Met has the temp spot on, right now.
South Holland, Lincs 5m/16ft ASL

When I saw corruption, I was forced to find truth on my own. I couldn't swallow the hypocrisy.

Barry White

It’s the end of the world as we know it (and I feel fine) - R.E.M.

Jiries
06 January 2025 06:18:40
Those are my dream to see low subzero temps Darren that a proper cold and powdery snowfalls. Proper cold of below 0 and powdery snow are the best way than this current set up with less cold temps 1C to 5C with wet snow to rain.  Did not bother go out yesterday to enjoy the slush puppy snow cover.
Viking3
06 January 2025 07:12:59
And Loch Glascarnoch takes the lead so far this spell with an overnight low of -13.3C!
Keith

Aboyne, Aberdeenshire

135m asl

Rob K
06 January 2025 09:29:10
The gap between the highest and lowest maxima yesterday was a whopping 20.4 degrees, with Merryfield in Somerset reaching 14.2C while Loch Glascarnoch only made it to -6.2C.

I imagine there could be higher gaps in summer when the south gets up into the 30s and the northern isles are cool, but it can't happen very often?

The gap between highest and lowest minima last night was even bigger, -13.3C at Loch Glascarnoch and 11.4C at St James's Park.


Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

doctormog
07 January 2025 07:03:11
Carol Kirkwood on BBC Breakfast has just stated that temperatures could drop to as low as -20°C in parts of Scotland later in the week.

Edit: Parts of Northern England could see as low as -17°C.


Retron
  • Retron
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
07 January 2025 16:57:21

Carol Kirkwood on BBC Breakfast has just stated that temperatures could drop to as low as -20°C in parts of Scotland later in the week.

Originally Posted by: doctormog 

Here's a screenshot of Darren Bett saying much the same this afternoon... "could get REALLY cold", as he explained! (Love the expression on his face too!)

UserPostedImage

https://ukwct.org.uk/weather/reallycold.jpg 


Leysdown, north Kent
Retron
  • Retron
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
07 January 2025 17:32:07
A question, for those who might know - I've had a look around but couldn't find it on the Met Office site (perhaps due to a brain fart)...

The SE England forecast from the MetO is as follows:

Staying cold with severe overnight frosts.

This Evening and Tonight:

Dry with clear skies overnight, which will lead to a widespread and locally severe frost. Winds falling light inland but staying breezy along the north Kent coast. Minimum temperature -5 °C.

...

Outlook for Thursday to Saturday:

Staying dry with some decent spells of winter sunshine on Thursday. Staying cold, with widespread and locally severe frosts overnight. Turning cloudier from the west Friday and Saturday. Light winds.

The question is - what do they count as a "severe" frost? I know of course of ground and air frosts, of penetrating frosts (where there's a wind), but I can't see what makes a frost "severe". Apparently the Finnish Met Office regards -15 as severe, but that's not much help!

Does anyone know the cut-off? And if -5 is "severe", what the heck is the -15 to -20 that we might see up north in a couple of days?!

EDIT: There is mention on the MetO site of "very severe frosts" in previous events, but again no definition. And their education section says that high pressure means "Severe nighttime frosts can develop if skies are clear" - but again no definition. Pah.


Leysdown, north Kent
Viking3
07 January 2025 18:01:40
This blog post from Xmetman gives the extract from the Meteorological Glossary

https://www.weatherdiary.uk/2023/11/04/the-definition-of-freezing-and-what-constitutes-an-air-frost/ 


Keith

Aboyne, Aberdeenshire

135m asl

Retron
  • Retron
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
07 January 2025 18:09:10

This blog post from Xmetman gives the extract from the Meteorological Glossary

https://www.weatherdiary.uk/2023/11/04/the-definition-of-freezing-and-what-constitutes-an-air-frost/ 

Originally Posted by: Viking3 

Ahh, well found! 👍

So... -2.5C to -5.5C with a wind of 10 knots or more is "severe", or -6.5C to -11.5C without the wind.

And that also means that back in 2018, when it was a gnat's whisker away from -15C here, it was "very severe".

What a shame the Met Office don't stick that on their website, but it's a similar thing with the definitions of "cold", "exceptionally mild", "warm" and so on - I have to refer to old forum posts or Usenet posts as a reference.


Leysdown, north Kent
picturesareme
07 January 2025 18:52:40

Ahh, well found! 👍

So... -2.5C to -5.5C with a wind of 10 knots or more is "severe", or -6.5C to -11.5C without the wind.

And that also means that back in 2018, when it was a gnat's whisker away from -15C here, it was "very severe".

What a shame the Met Office don't stick that on their website, but it's a similar thing with the definitions of "cold", "exceptionally mild", "warm" and so on - I have to refer to old forum posts or Usenet posts as a reference.

Originally Posted by: Retron 

This met office twitter post might help..

https://x.com/metoffice/status/1876645177609109657 

-8C in south Thursday night and -16C in northern England 

Tim A
08 January 2025 07:08:50
Temps definitely haven't been as low as suggested round here .

Monday night it barely dipped below freezing. 

Only -1.9c this morning here, LBA is -1c , yet the Met Office App says -5c there right now. 

So not expecting -7c to -10 in the next few days as the Apps show. 


Tim

NW Leeds

187m asl

 My PWS 

Tim A
08 January 2025 08:25:15
Having said that it did just drop to -3.7c a few mins ago must be as the breeze from the NW has gone. 
Tim

NW Leeds

187m asl

 My PWS 

Viking3
08 January 2025 09:10:24
Some of the ingredients for very low temperatures are in place in southern Scotland and northern England, but it's not perfect over a wide area. Some of the private stations have fallen to -9 to -10 in the Southern Uplands, around Alston and also parts of the Dales. To get really cold nights one of the crucial ingredients is very light or calm gradient winds, and these are just not in place over the areas with best snow cover. Tonight looks to be the same as the low to the south pulls away and the N to NW gradient is slightly reinforced, but winds over a large area of the country should drop out completely tomorrow night so Friday morning should be the one to watch.
Keith

Aboyne, Aberdeenshire

135m asl

Viking3
08 January 2025 19:54:26
A few stations in the northern Dales just north of Hawes are down to nearly -12C just now.
Keith

Aboyne, Aberdeenshire

135m asl

Tim A
09 January 2025 08:20:34
-6.2c here early in the night before temps rose somewhat.  Impressive for here as we don't get low temps on an semi urban hill. E.g , never recorded lower than -9.5c (in similar locations)  back to 1995. 
Tim

NW Leeds

187m asl

 My PWS 

Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
09 January 2025 09:51:02
My sensor showed-7.4c this morning.  That’s likely lower than the official temp because my sensor is against a fence.  Nevertheless it’s the lowest I’ve recorded this winter. 
Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.

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Rob K
09 January 2025 18:49:01
Shap maxed out at -1.6C and Loch Glascarnoch hit -12.4C last night. Both may have been beaten by other stations not on the SYNOP network.

An honourable mention for the Cairnwell which recorded a wind gust of 111.2 kph at 9am with a temperature of -5.3C. That'll feel a bit fresh.


Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

Saint Snow
09 January 2025 18:58:12
We got down to -5c last night.

It was -5c at 6pm so will be interesting to see what it gets down to tonight, given we have more extensive and a little deeper snow cover.


Martin

Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)

A TWO addict since 14/12/01

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Retron
  • Retron
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
10 January 2025 03:56:05
Have to admit, I'm a little disappointed so far this morning - it was to be the coldest night, -15, -16 or -20, depending on whether you looked at the Beeb or Met Office, yet the coldest official reading so far is only -10.5 at Shap.

Even here, I was hoping to beat last year's low of -3.9, which shouldn't really be too much to ask, but it's only gone as low as -2.4 so far.

There are a few hours left of cooling to come, so we may yet see colder values, but even so it'll have to drop a fair bit to get to the levels forecast over the snowfields in the north.

The models, I would suggest, haven't covered themselves with glory in terms of night time temperature forecasts!


Leysdown, north Kent
doctormog
10 January 2025 06:24:07

Have to admit, I'm a little disappointed so far this morning - it was to be the coldest night, -15, -16 or -20, depending on whether you looked at the Beeb or Met Office, yet the coldest official reading so far is only -10.5 at Shap.

Even here, I was hoping to beat last year's low of -3.9, which shouldn't really be too much to ask, but it's only gone as low as -2.4 so far.

There are a few hours left of cooling to come, so we may yet see colder values, but even so it'll have to drop a fair bit to get to the levels forecast over the snowfields in the north.

The models, I would suggest, haven't covered themselves with glory in terms of night time temperature forecasts!

Originally Posted by: Retron 

To be honest I was surprised at the -15°C to -20°C forecasts as I don’t believe that ever looked likely under last night’s conditions. I would also think that, in Scotland at least, tonight may be colder than the one that has just gone, with -15°C more achievable.


Rob K
10 January 2025 07:35:21
It’s been the coldest night of the spell down here in the south with local weather stations reading -6 to -7 currently (the official South Farnborough No 2 is on -6.0). 

In Scotland it looks as if temperatures started to drop fast in the later stages of the night but the lowest so far looks like -11.8C at Resallach. Looking at the graph I expect it will drop further though. 


Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

10 January 2025 07:38:58
Coldest night of the winter here so far at -7 with a sparkling frost. A few patches of thin frozen snow remain from Wednesday evening's light covering
Jason

Salfords, Surrey

doctormog
10 January 2025 07:47:51

It’s been the coldest night of the spell down here in the south with local weather stations reading -6 to -7 currently (the official South Farnborough No 2 is on -6.0). 

In Scotland it looks as if temperatures started to drop fast in the later stages of the night but the lowest so far looks like -11.8C at Resallach. Looking at the graph I expect it will drop further though. 

Originally Posted by: Rob K 

Quite a few local PWS in Inverness-shire have dropped below -12°C with the lowest at 13.5°C so far. If conditions had been favourable earlier some very low minima would have been seen. Depending on timing that may be the case tonight in Strathdon or Royal

 Deeside.


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