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Frank H
  • Frank H
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
27 November 2024 17:20:47
Please pm  your December prediction to me by midnight on 30th November.
To ensure fair play I will pm my own prediction to Caz on the 29th, as I did a couple of years ago.
Some data:
2023 = 7.1c
2022 = 3.5c
2021 = 6.4c
2020 = 5.0c
2019 = 5.8c
Average 91-20 = 4.9c
Highest 2015 = 9.7c
Lowest recently 2010 = -0.7c   (1981 was -0.1c)
Wrightington, Wigan
+4
Frank H
  • Frank H
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
29 November 2024 07:53:55
Please sticky
Wrightington, Wigan
Hungry Tiger
29 November 2024 20:30:28

Please sticky

Originally Posted by: Frank H 


Just going to sticky it Frank.   🙂 
Gavin S. FRmetS.
TWO Moderator.
Contact the TWO team - [email protected]
South Cambridgeshire. 93 metres or 302.25 feet ASL.


Ally Pally Snowman
29 November 2024 20:37:34
Thanks Frank,  shame still no sign of Justin,  not signed in since 10th October .
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
+2
Hungry Tiger
29 November 2024 20:40:37
Just stickied it Frank. A big thanks to you from me and the team on here for taking this over.    🙂 
Gavin S. FRmetS.
TWO Moderator.
Contact the TWO team - [email protected]
South Cambridgeshire. 93 metres or 302.25 feet ASL.


+2
Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
30 November 2024 07:12:49

Please pm  your December prediction to me by midnight on 30th November.
To ensure fair play I will pm my own prediction to Caz on the 29th, as I did a couple of years ago.
Some data:
2023 = 7.1c
2022 = 3.5c
2021 = 6.4c
2020 = 5.0c
2019 = 5.8c
Average 91-20 = 4.9c
Highest 2015 = 9.7c
Lowest recently 2010 = -0.7c   (1981 was -0.1c)

Originally Posted by: Frank H 


I can confirm that I’ve received Frank’s prediction.  
Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.
Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition.
+3
Hungry Tiger
30 November 2024 12:54:18
Just Pm'd you with my December cet figures for you.   🙂 
Gavin S. FRmetS.
TWO Moderator.
Contact the TWO team - [email protected]
South Cambridgeshire. 93 metres or 302.25 feet ASL.


Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
01 December 2024 19:08:20
Last shot of the year!  Good luck everyone. 
Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.
Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition.
+3
Frank H
  • Frank H
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
01 December 2024 20:26:59
December Predictions 
lanky            7.02
frank h         6.88
redmoons    6.75
bolty            6.60
bertwhistle   6.44
artzeman     6.43
kendalian     6.10
hungry tiger 6.00
ap snowman 5.80
sswd             5.70
snowshoe    5.60
gezm           5.50
col                5.39
dingle rob    5.30
stormchaser 5.18
scillydave     5.15
splinter        5.13
ricm             5.10
caz               5.00
dickeyboy68 4.68
grandad       4.40
taylor 1740   4.20
windy willow 3.90
saint snow    3.30
Wrightington, Wigan
+3
Bolty
01 December 2024 23:38:11
Thanks for including mine and apologies for being slightly late. It's really easy to forget about this at the end of the month 😂
Scott
Blackrod, Lancashire (4 miles south of Chorley) at 156m asl.
My weather station 
Stormchaser
02 December 2024 09:45:08
Interestingly wide spread of estimates for this month. Perhaps not surprising given wide fluctuations in forecast modelling, with in terms of what happens when (looking very variable) and the balance of milder versus colder conditions.

I'm willing to reveal that I initially estimated milder before a late downward adjustment of nearly half a degree Celsius. Let's see if I come to regret that! Not that I've much at stake this year 😅
If you have any problems or queries relating to TWO you can Email [email protected]

https://twitter.com/peacockreports 
2023's Homeland Extremes:
T-Max: 30.2°C 9th Sep (...!) | T-Min: -7.1°C 22nd & 23rd Jan | Wettest Day: 25.9mm 2nd Nov | Ice Days: 1 (2nd Dec -1.3°C in freezing fog)
Keep Calm and Forecast On
Saint Snow
02 December 2024 10:31:44
Mine is a bit of 'sh*t or bust* prediction 😁

Would be nice to get that sort of CET, mind!


Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
Frank H
  • Frank H
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
02 December 2024 10:38:53

December Predictions 
lanky            7.02
frank h         6.88
redmoons    6.75
bolty            6.60
bertwhistle   6.44
artzeman     6.43
kendalian     6.10
hungry tiger 6.00
ap snowman 5.80
sswd             5.70
snowshoe    5.60
gezm           5.50
col                5.39
dingle rob    5.30
stormchaser 5.18
scillydave     5.15
splinter        5.13
ricm             5.10
caz               5.00
dickeyboy68 4.68
grandad       4.40
taylor 1740   4.20
windy willow 3.90
saint snow    3.30

Originally Posted by: Frank H 


Late entry from Sussex Snow Magnet = 5.10c
Wrightington, Wigan
Frank H
  • Frank H
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
02 December 2024 10:54:50
Following the November results and December predictions there are now 3 possible winners of the Annual competition.

If the December CET is:
Under 5.15c - Grandad wins
Exactly 5.15c - Tie between Grandad and SSWD (this would involve a tie break per GW's rules)
Between 5.16c and 6.57c - SSWD wins
Above 6.57c - Frank h wins.

Lets hope its a mild month!
Wrightington, Wigan
ARTzeman
02 December 2024 11:30:53
IMANSF143          10.1c           Nicks'1BATH45          10.1c
Metcheck              10.61c              Anomaly          5.61c
Netweather           11.86c              Anomaly          6.77c
Peasedown St John  1.0.45c          Anomaly          4.02c
 




Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
Saint Snow
02 December 2024 12:41:00


Lets hope its a mild month!

Originally Posted by: Frank H 




No offence, mate, but... 😉

Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
Gavin D
02 December 2024 13:18:51
Hadley
12.4 to the 1st

7.9c above the 61 to 90 average
6.7c above the 91 to 20 average
Retron
02 December 2024 13:25:12

Hadley
12.4 to the 1st

7.9c above the 61 to 90 average
6.7c above the 91 to 20 average

Originally Posted by: Gavin D 


Wow, reminds me of the blowdryer December of 2015. At least it's not going to be sustained, but even so - every day now has to be more than 0.2 below average just to break even!

EDIT: That's a daily CET record, yet again. Funny how common they are these days in winter!

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/graphs/2024/daily_meantemp_cet_2024.png 
Leysdown, north Kent
ARTzeman
03 December 2024 10:58:32
IMANSF145              7.1c           Nicks'1BATH45          8.1c
Metcheck                  8.65c              Anomaly              3.56c
Netweather               9.97c              Anomaly              4.88c
Peasedown St John   8.35c              Anomaly              1.96c.     




Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
Gavin D
03 December 2024 13:00:47
Hadley

10.2 to the 2nd

5.7c above the 61 to 90 average
4.4c above the 91 to 20 average
Retron
03 December 2024 17:44:29

Hadley

10.2 to the 2nd

5.7c above the 61 to 90 average
4.4c above the 91 to 20 average

Originally Posted by: Gavin D 


We now need every day to be a bit more than 0.3 below average to even things out (compared to the 91-20 average)...
Leysdown, north Kent
Stormchaser
03 December 2024 18:07:50
Hard to get a good sense of how far the CET will fall by mid-month.

GFS still stubbornly resists developing an elongated high across Scandinavia on Monday such as UKM and ECM have been doing. Its an important factor for keeping a colder setup going past Tuesday, though GFS has been considering a second attempt at a northerly incursion in around 10 days time.

Even if we do get the high over Scandinavia, there's a fair bit of variation between model runs regarding how much cold air is transported across the CET zone, and how long it is before the cold feed is cut off in some manner.

Times like this, trying to estimate monthly means from late in the prior month feels rather ambitious.
If you have any problems or queries relating to TWO you can Email [email protected]

https://twitter.com/peacockreports 
2023's Homeland Extremes:
T-Max: 30.2°C 9th Sep (...!) | T-Min: -7.1°C 22nd & 23rd Jan | Wettest Day: 25.9mm 2nd Nov | Ice Days: 1 (2nd Dec -1.3°C in freezing fog)
Keep Calm and Forecast On
ARTzeman
04 December 2024 09:42:16
IMANSF145         6.3c          Nicks'1BATH75    7.0c
Metcheck            7.28c            Anomaly           2.28c
Netweather         8.02c           Anomaly           2.93c
Peasedown St John   7.16c     Anomaly           0.73c. 




Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
Gavin D
04 December 2024 13:01:32
Hadley
8.2 to the 3rd

3.7c above the 61 to 90 average
2.4c above the 91 to 20 average
ARTzeman
05 December 2024 11:26:42
IMANSF43       7.6c       Inicks'BATH75     8.6c
Metcheck        7.50c          Anomaly         2.5`c
Netweather     7.68c         Anomaly          2.59c
Peasedown St John  9.02c  Anomaly        2.59c.    




Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet

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