Remove ads from site

Brian Gaze
16 August 2024 15:50:15

Amazed so little being mentioned on the forecasts and on here regarding the drought in the South East (all regions? or just Essex?). We've had just 2-3mm in the past month and that barely wet the ground. Silver Birch tree leaves now starting to go yellow and will soon start shedding them. Gardens are like dust an the pond is drying up rapidly up. Really could do with some spells of heavy rain now but can't see any in the forecast.

Originally Posted by: fairweather 




My pond has almost dried out. Last night's rain amounted to about 1.5mm I think. 
Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
cultman1
16 August 2024 18:56:35
Moving forward what are the prospects for the Bank Holiday Weekend ? A contination of dry settled weather, at least for the south, after early next week's hiccup for wet and windy conditions, or a gradual deterioration to a  potential autumnal weather pattern?
Zubzero
17 August 2024 00:17:30
No end in sight of this very warm and very dry spell imby. Long very dry and warm spells are becoming standard summer weather here it seems, + another week coming up with little to no rain ( small chance of a shower on Tuesday) with temps 22-25C and more then likely to be little change untill the start of September at the earliest. And yet another Summer with no storms imby-never thought they would be nearly as rare as snow. 
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
17 August 2024 07:26:05
WX temp charts - no great changes for the next two weeks, with what I'd call the 'hot boundary' (22C day-night average) running E-W from S France across C Europe and the 'cool boundary' (12C) E-W from Shetland to N half of Scandinavia. Within that, western areas including England a little warmer in week 2 and W Russia cooler. The ultra-hot parts (Spain, Danube basin) noted yesterday not quite so extreme today. Rain in N Atlantic incl W Scotland week 1, with bits and pieces elsewhere in Europe; this area of rain retreating to Iceland in week 2 and a very dry area developing from N France and England E-wards across Europe.

GFS Op - as before, a generally W-ly pattern with more or less deep LPs moving past N of Scotland and S England keeping in touch with continental HP, rarely dropping below 1020mb. The LPs are deeper and thus tend to project troughs moving E-wards over Scotland and sometimes N England on Tue 20th (985mb Shetland), Fri 23rd (975mb Faeroes, incl remnants of Ernesto), Fri 30th (985mb S Iceland). The last of these takes a more SE-ly course into Sweden, pulling down N-lies for Britain on Mon 2nd.

ECM - similar to GFS but the LP Fri 23rd is deeper (965mb) and closer (Cape Wrath), affecting England rather more than GFS, and adds another trough approaching on Tue 27th.

GEM - also like GFS but in this case LP Fri 23rd is less focused and also further N over Iceland, However, pressure following that is generally lower for Britain and does include the trough Tue 27th as per ECM.

GEFS - In the S, a dip (say, 3C) below norm on Wed 21st and a peak (similar) Sat 24th, agreed by ens members, thereafter mean stays near norm but with little agreement and there are a few very warm outliers. A very little rain, intermittently and that most likely in SW. In the N, the temp pattern is much the same though the dip is deeper and the peak less. Rain likely at times in w/b Mon 19th, heavy in NW, less thereafter.
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
17 August 2024 08:33:12

No end in sight of this very warm and very dry spell imby. Long very dry and warm spells are becoming standard summer weather here it seems,  + another week coming up with little to no rain ( small chance of a shower on Tuesday) with temps 22-25C and more then likely to be little change untill the start of September at the earliest. And yet another Summer with no storms imby-never thought they would be nearly as rare as snow. 

Originally Posted by: Zubzero 


Interesting but if you put your location in your signature, we’d know where IMBY is.  
Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.
Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition.
Crepuscular Ray
17 August 2024 09:34:26

Interesting but if you put your location in your signature, we’d know where IMBY is.  

Originally Posted by: Caz 


I suggest it's SE England Caz.
I wonder if climate change means that the SE quadrant is becoming more continental in it's weather whereas the NW quadrant becomes more Atlantic? I certainly don't recognise 'long warm and dry' spells! 😁
Jerry
Edinburgh, in the frost hollow below Blackford Hill
doctormog
17 August 2024 09:47:34

Interesting but if you put your location in your signature, we’d know where IMBY is.  

Originally Posted by: Caz 


Many poster’s locations are included in the poster’s profile but that doesn’t shown in their posts. In this case the location is Cambridge. (In Antarctica apparently 😀).
Brian Gaze
17 August 2024 11:49:42

I suggest it's SE England Caz.
I wonder if climate change means that the SE quadrant is becoming more continental in it's weather whereas the NW quadrant becomes more Atlantic? I certainly don't recognise 'long warm and dry' spells! 😁

Originally Posted by: Crepuscular Ray 



It's almost reaching the stage where you can plan a barbecue by the calendar rather than the weather forecast.
Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Crepuscular Ray
17 August 2024 15:52:48
Well I got to Manchester to find it grey and 18 C.....a bit disappointing Edinburgh weather!
Jerry
Edinburgh, in the frost hollow below Blackford Hill
sunny coast
17 August 2024 18:39:24
Plenty of very usable weather here on the Sussex coast in recent weeks . At the moment the warm dry conditions look likely to prevail apart from early next week 
bledur
17 August 2024 19:01:43

Plenty of very usable weather here on the Sussex coast in recent weeks . At the moment the warm dry conditions look likely to prevail apart from early next week 

Originally Posted by: sunny coast 


Good job considering the amount of rain we had from October to June, .The only month that has been dry here is June.
 Water Table is still relatively high and grass has been growing continuously. Most grass we have had in mid August for years.
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
18 August 2024 07:29:39
WX temp charts - little new from yesterday with 

 what I'd call the 'hot boundary' (22C day-night average) running E-W from S France across C Europe and the 'cool boundary' (12C) E-W from Shetland to N half of Scandinavia. In week 2, a little cooler for NW Europe, distinctly hotter for Romania, but Britain retaining a gradient from pleasantly warm in the SE to cool in the NW. Some rain for much of Europe though dry in the SW (England down to Spain) and in the E (Russia and Ukraine), heaviest around the northern N Sea.

GFS Op - LPs continue to roll E-ward past N Scotland, projecting troughs S-wards which affect most of Britain (more so than shown yesterday), the troughs most noticeable on Tue 20th, Fri 23rd containing remains of Ernesto, Thu 29th). Then unlike yesterday's chart, pressure rises and settles 1025mb N Sea Tue 3rd. BH weekend looks unsettled in the N, fine in the S, but fresh W-lies everywhere.

ECM - like GFS today, making less of a feature of Ernesto than it did yesterday though the Fri 23rd trough is slower to move on. This model adds in a transient shallow LP embedded in the W-lies located SW Ireland Tue 27th .

GEM - closer to ECM; Ernesto arrives a day earlier and the shallow LP for the 27th covers a larger area and that for the northern half of Ireland up to the Hebrides

GEFS - in the S, warm and cool alternately for a couple of days each until Tue 27th (one of the cool periods covers the BH w/e), then with less agreement between ens members the mean is a couple of degrees above norm into September. A little rain likely 23rd/24th but otherwise mainly dry. In the N, warm and cool alternation still there, but flattened out, and after that temps are only just above norm. Rain in one run or another for most days, highest chance around 23rd esp in NW. For today at any rate the N/S boundary is approximately defined as somewhere N of Birmingham.


War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
19 August 2024 06:56:20
WX temps - still the steady gradient with isotherms lying W-E, from cold in the far N (e.g. Iceland) to hot in the Mediterranean. Within that, something of a change from week 1 to week 2; starting only just above the 20thC norm for W Europe and much above for E Europe, reversing in the second week. By week 2, warmer air has spread north from SE England up to S Scotland. Rain mainly in N Atlantic with bits and pieces over Europe in week 1; then in week 2 this rain just hanging on around W coasts of Britain and Norway while most of Europe becomes dry.

GFS Op - broad troughs moving E-wards across Britain tomorrow (Tue) and Fri 23rd (incorporates remains of Ernesto) and Tue 27th, effects being mainly felt in the N, breezy W-lies between the troughs as they pass through. From Thu 29th a large area of HP develops not far to the east keeping unsettled weather out on the Atlantic with winds for Britain in the SW. This links to HP from the west to form a broad ridge over N Britain from Mon 2nd but with LP from France progressively affecting England.

ECM - by comparison with GFS, Friday's trough is slower to move in and persists a day longer, and then as in GEM, the trough on the 27th runs up the W coast

GEM - similar to GFS but trough on 27th runs up the W coast rather than crossing Britain and the HP then develops earlier than the 29th,

GEFS - generally, lower temps Thu 22nd and again Mon 26th before a general warming into September, but that not agreed by all ens members. In the S rain likely around Sat 24th but not much at other times; in the N for close to Tue 20th and Sat 24th, declining after that but always more likely than in the S, esp in NW.


For the BH weekend it looks as if the remnants of Friday's trough will be clearing away on Sat, followed by fresh W-lies, perhaps with more showery conditions for the NW
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
CField
20 August 2024 06:07:26
Impressive core of heat Western Med....the seeds to a huge late December high are sown


Favourite snowstorm
Famous channel low
Dec 31st 1978
Hastings East Sussex
Foot of level snow severe drifting
Next day max temp -4 degrees Celsius
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
20 August 2024 06:58:46
WX temp charts - trends as yesterday but more so (in bold):  still the steady gradient with isotherms lying W-E, from cold in the far N (e.g. Iceland) to hot in the Mediterranean. Within that, something of a change from week 1 to week 2; starting only just above the 20thC norm for W Europe and much above for E Europe, reversing in the second week. By week 2, warmer air has spread north from SE England up to S Scotland, and France looks really hot up to the Channel coast.  Rain in N Atlantic and N Sea in week 1, retreating to W coasts of Britain and Norway in week 2; Europe generally rather dry with the exception of a small area around the Adriatic. 

GFS Op - trough passing E-wards across Britain today and another on Fri 23rd, then a brief spell of W-lies before the next trough Fri 30th stalls off W Ireland and W Scotland bringing up warm air from the SW for the rest of Britain (and much of W Europe). Pressure then rises and HP is centred over Britain 1030mb Tue 3rd, drifting slowly E-ward while continuing to pull warmth up from the S for Britain (and on its E side, moving cold air down from the N into Russia).

ECM - somewhere between GFS and GEM

GEM - less positive than GFS; the trough on Fri 23rd is quicker to arrive and slower to leave, a 4-day rather than a 2-day event, and the pressure rise after Fri 30th is weaker and further S (Channel 1020mb)

GEFS - cool Fri 21st, then briefly warm but cool again until Fri 30th after which a warming trend in most ens members (mean some  3C above norm in S, though less in Scotland,  while control has an absurd 15C above norm Tue 3rd). Rain likely around Fri 23rd everywhere after which mainly dry in S & E, more frequent rain in Scotland and NW England, and heavy at times in NW Scotland.
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
Retron
20 August 2024 17:50:43
Those who enjoy heat will want to check out the 12z GFS tonight, which serves up a prolonged heatwave in its outer sections as a "heat pump" low sets up to the west. I'll be hoping it's just off on one, but these things have a funny knack of coming off!
Leysdown, north Kent
Jiries
20 August 2024 19:28:42

Those who enjoy heat will want to check out the 12z GFS tonight, which serves up a prolonged heatwave in its outer sections as a "heat pump" low sets up to the west. I'll be hoping it's just off on one, but these things have a funny knack of coming off!

Originally Posted by: Retron 


Since I did not have a proper sunny heatwave here this summer so I am hoping September deliver it like last year but hope more better by prolonging the warmth after few days of 30s to whole of Sept as much as possible.  Take to factor to avoid heating costs which some start using it end of Sept, I had hold off last year to 15th Oct so hope to hold off to 1st November.  Plus the north need a break from their prolonged cold and wet weather.


White Meadows
20 August 2024 22:14:05
We’ve had a few wet (ish) days this week on the south coast. So not the desert some people are claiming. 
The general outlook: Windy this week, increasingly so. Saturday, appalling. Monday onwards a late burst of summer hitting 28c in places. Calm. 
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
21 August 2024 07:19:53
WX temps - similar to yesterday's forecast: in week 1, hot in the Mediterranean and E Europe, cooler for NW Europe notably N Scotland and Norway, switching round in week 2 with warm air pushing up from Spain into NW Europe including England and (just about) Scotland while colder air moving S through Russia into E Europe. Rain for Britain esp NW and Scandinavia in week 1 splitting into two areas in week 2, one on the Atlantic, one over Norway. Europe mostly dry exp in the E in week 2.

GFS Op - trough with remains of Ernesto moving E-wards across Britain Fri 23rd (actually taking two bites, stretching further S on Thu, brief respite, then another go on Sat), then from Tue 27th LP parading up and down between S Iceland and W Ireland, with SW-lies, looking warm in SE England.  Pressure rises with broad W-E ridge for the whole of Britain from Sun 1st (much less established than yesterday) but doesn't last as on Fri 6th LP over Norway brings N-lies down the E Coast.

ECM - very much like GFS

GEM - like GFS but from Tue 27th keeps the LP further out in the Atlantic with HP and warmer temps for all of Britain

GEFS - temps mostly above norm in S, but close to in N, for the rest of this week, dipping 2 or 3 C below for the BH weekend, then generally around 3C above norm in SE, but just above in NW, well into September, some spread between ens members but none of yesterday's excesses. Rain around Fri/Sat 23/24th, very  little in S after that but consistent small amounts in N and as always heavier in NW

War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
Brian Gaze
21 August 2024 07:26:57

We’ve had a few wet (ish) days this week on the south coast. So not the desert some people are claiming. 
The general outlook: Windy this week, increasingly so. Saturday, appalling. Monday onwards a late burst of summer hitting 28c in places. Calm. 

Originally Posted by: White Meadows 



I don't think everyone is specifically talking about the south coast. Around here it is very dry indeed.
Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
AJ*
  • AJ*
  • Advanced Member
21 August 2024 11:51:04

We’ve had a few wet (ish) days this week on the south coast. So not the desert some people are claiming. 
The general outlook: Windy this week, increasingly so. Saturday, appalling. Monday onwards a late burst of summer hitting 28c in places. Calm. 

Originally Posted by: White Meadows 


We've had no rain this week in west Kent, and while I've never claimed it to be a desert, I think that 6mm of rain in the past 5 weeks is remarkably dry. I don't know whether this comes under the formal definition of a drought.

Perhaps it is worth taking account of the fact that people tend to comment on their own specific locality, and that rainfall amounts can vary over quite a short distance.
Angus; one of the Kent crew on TWO.
Tonbridge, 40m (131ft) asl
picturesareme
21 August 2024 17:22:24
The reminants of hurricane ernesto are now moving in over Ireland. 
cultman1
21 August 2024 18:37:06
One aspect of the weather here in Fulham is the continual windy weather which has characterised much of this summer and August so far is no exception. Although it has been largely dry the temperature for this time of the year has been tempered by the  wind and the current pattern shows no sign of abating.
Hungry Tiger
21 August 2024 20:01:57
I'm going for 16.0C for this September unless things change. Looking like a very warm start for at least the first week to 20 days.   🙂 
Gavin S. FRmetS.
TWO Moderator.
Contact the TWO team - [email protected]
South Cambridgeshire. 93 metres or 302.25 feet ASL.


tierradelfuego
21 August 2024 20:15:47

One aspect of the weather here in Fulham is the continual windy weather which has characterised much of this summer and August so far is no exception. Although it has been largely dry the temperature for this time of the year has been tempered by the  wind and the current pattern shows no sign of abating.

Originally Posted by: cultman1 


Certainly the last few days have been, however that surprises me as being a "continual" thing, I wouldn't have said here (a little to the West) has been that windy. Being a fly fisherman wind is my nemesis and it hasn't bothered me that much this summer, but I certainly wouldn't have fished the last few days.
Bucklebury
West Berkshire Downs AONB
135m ASL

VP2 with daytime FARS
Rainfall collector separated at ground level
Anemometer separated above roof level
WeatherLink Live (Byles Green Weather)
Users browsing this topic

Remove ads from site

Ads