Once we get our first proper setttled spell for 2024 in September will be first time for everyone including SE which had a very poor summer as well, see posts in NW forum full of evidence how poor everywere and more poorer further north.  Proper 1025-30mb pressure nationwide over UK had been absent since as far as last year.

Warm midweek then cool down to average before returning back up again.  Heat spikes do one and get lost please, no use to restricted heat cloudy dirty spikes type.

I'd put money on neither of them coming off. I'd reckon next Sunday will end up much as the latter half of the summer has here: dry, largely sunny, warmer than average.

Yes, I mentioned the former point when Ally Pally Snowman was moaning earlier in the year, saying that we wouldn't get to 30 at all this summer. I said at the time you could add 5C onto all of his predictions and so it's been - 30C reached in all three months, and as usual getting warmer as summer's gone on.

As for the 60s summers, you're spot on: the hottest temperature in the 60s was 33.9, recorded in 1961 in London and Gillingham (presumably Kent) - some things never change in terms of the hot spots! We were also hotter than any day in the 80s as well. (Source  - Trevor Harley's site)

The hottest this year was 34.8, I can't see that being beaten in September but you never know with our modern climate!

Well I'm glad I was wrong, it's also been a decent summer here in the very east of Hertfordshire.  After a terrible start since mid July it's been mainly dry and warm. I know its been a v poor summer though in the NW so hopefully this up coming spell is more nationwide. 

GFS Op - consistent with yesterday, starting with LP near NW Scotland drawing up warm air from the SW. Then after a brief interlude Thu 29th as that LP moves across Scotland, pressure rises strongly from the SW, to settle 1030mb northern N Sea Sun 1st. This pulls back to N Scotland for the following week and dominates UK weather to Wed 11th though with shallow LP trying to establish near Cornwall, this LP with most effect Mon 9th and thence producing some strong NE-lies over SE England.

ECM - like GFS to Sun 1st but then HP pulls back to the Atlantic, still close enough to promise dry weather for Britain but cooler with winds going round to the W and then to N by Thu 5th

GEM - closer to ECM than GFS but with the same tendency for the HP to pull back to the W

GEFS - warm around Thu29th, a dip, then warm again Mon 2nd, less noticeable in Scotland. Mean temps then steadily to norm by Sat 8th, mean continues to cool, op stays warm but an increased number of quite cold ens members. Very little prospect of rain in the S, not much more in the N except for the next few days in the NW. 

Much as June and July were rather mixed here to say the least, neither month was as persistently awful as August has been in my locality. It seems that since the weather in your area improved somewhat after mid-July, ours took a turn for the worse.

There do now seem to be some reasonably consistent suggestions from the models of an end to the recent NW/SE split from around next weekend, although the precise details have still to be sorted out. It seems as though there will be a build of HP over the UK intially, with a mid-atlantic HP developing during next week according to ECM 00z. GFS seems to be keener to raise pressure over Scandinavia with a possible link-up the HP in the atlantic. I think those of us in NW areas would be very glad of such a set-up were it to develop as indicated after the August we have had.

Those linked up pressure pattern are the best and always deliver wall to wall sunshine for everyone once Sept arrives.  First time ever for this nasty summer had not deliver 30C, wall to wall sun, no thunder and prolonged settled periods. 0/10. Once  again infill clouds attack now as yesterday infill. I never seen infills in Sept onward always attack late spring to summer for some stupid reason.

Yes the difference between the SE and the rest of the UK also seems to be widening in recent years .  As you day a much better part 2 of meteorological summer . 

GFS Op - current LP near Scotland with warm SW-lies moving on and giving way to broad area of HP lying SW-NE across Britain by Mon 2nd. This splits, allowing LP to dominate the N Sea with N-lies for Britain esp the E Coast; LP Holland 1003mb 1010mb by Wed 4th and staying around. Brief resurgence of HP Sun 8th but again breaks down with LP from N 1005mb covering all of Britain Wed 11th, cold for all.

ECM - the HP developing and splitting as above but the LP causing the split is further east ( S Norway/Sweden) so HP hangs on for Britain albeit with (much weaker N-lies)

GEM - minimises any split and keeps HP centred over Britain through to Thu 5th 1025mb

GEFS - Warm in immediate future, and again Mon 2nd, with dip to norm between and after, less pronounced in Scotland, with good ens agreement. Mean continues near norm but ens members vary with op in particular taking a very cold line. Some rain in some runs  from about Mon 2nd  onwards (and also in near future in far N)

I am so pleased to know the forecast gone very wrong as I was so right from yesterday something gone wrong and once it gone wrong it stay wrong until it finish completely this wrongness.  No useable weather this summer and had been mostly stuck indoors, we want to go to the Sheldon country park next to the Birmingham airport runway but not able to do so due to cloudy cool weather, need clear skies to watch planes take off and landing.  At least models showing decent September start give us a chance to go outside in more sunny useable weather.

https://ukwct.org.uk/weather/update.jpg 

Certainly a useful addition I think, thanks for the heads up. Would be good if they could do the same with rainfall amounts. It might be a tougher ask, especially when convective, however when I look at the Aussie BOM as I do often for family reasons, they manage it pretty well in general.

I'm a big fan of the Aussie BOM. I use it mainly because I love keeping an eye on weather around the world but also because I have a brother in New South Wales. So many good features on their website. 

But this Met Office addition is interesting too. I notice that the further you go into the future, the bigger the possible deviations are  - as you'd expect. For example, St Albans next Monday is forecast to have a high of 26C and a low of 15C but possible ranges are between 32C and 10C.

GFS Op - pressure rising over the next few days to become centred over NE Britain Sat 31st 1025mb. For the following week pressure remains high over Scotland in the shape of a bridge between the Atlantic and Scandinavia, while shallow areas of LP affect S England (1015mb Holland Wed 4th, 1010mb Channel Mon 9th). From the 9th, the HP re-arranges into a broad ridge from Iceland to Scotland with any LP retreating further S into France.

ECM - something like GFS, but a deep trough between the Atlantic and Scandinavian centres Sun 1st, though too far west to affect all but extreme W Britain. LP then affects S Britain from the Channel only on Thu 5th, and the development of a ridge of HP to Iceland starts as early as Sat 7th.

GEM - the HP bridge referred to above doesn't establish straight away, with all of Britain under a trough lying N-S on Wed 4th. Later, once HP on the Atlantic and Scandinavia link up, LP moves further N to cover all of England Fri 6th

GEFS - temps back to norm Sat 31st then warm again Mon 2nd with good ens agreement. After Thu 5th the mean stays near norm to the end of run (chance of something warmer in the far N Mon 9th), but very little agreement between ens members (on the 7th, a 20C spread between hottest and coldest in the S). Rain most likely for a week beginning Mon 2nd but only a few ens members show large amounts and those mostly in the S.

30C in September is now completely unremarkable though.