Please pm your November prediction to me by midnight on 31st October.

Please try to meet the deadline.

I will post my own prediction directly onto the thread.

Some background information:

Average 1991 -20 = 7.3c

Warmest all time = 9.9c (1994) 

Coldest this century = 5.1c (2010)  -  1985 was 3.9c

Last 5 years:

2018 = 8.3c

2019 = 6.2c

2020 = 8.5c

2021 = 7.2c

2022 = 9.2c 

---

[Just stickied it for you Frank.  🙂

---

Not looking particularly mild atm. Chilly and wet likely. 

---

7.15c for me

---

November Predictions

All predictions below in on time.

Thanks all for your efforts in this.

The top 2 in the October table, Bolty and Ricm, almost a degree apart with their November predictions. 

Gavin D            8.90
col                    8.62
sussex snow magnet 8.40
dingle rob        8.40
redmoons         8.20
artzeman          8.20
scillydave          8.12
bertwhistle       8.02
rickm                7.85
gezm               7.80
tierradelfuego  7.80
stomchaser       7.70
grandad           7.70
ap snowman    7.50
caz                   7.50
lanky                7.42
frank h             7.15
Dickieboy68    7.10
bolty                6.90
snowshoe        6.85
hungry tiger    6.80
jmm2005         6.75
windywillow    6.70
taylor1740       6.50
sswd                6.50
kendalian        5.90

---

Surprised to be so near the bottom with a not particularly cold guess 
 

IMANSF22                9.6c               NICKS-1BATH 75              9.6c
Metcheck                 10.19c                 Anomaly                     3.27C
Netweather              11.34c                 Anomaly                     4.45c
Peasedown St John  9.52                     Anomaly                    1.32c.

---

Hadley

11.2c to the 1st

4.7c above the 61 to 90 average
1.8c above the 81 to 10 average

An almost 3 degree difference between 61-90 and 81-10 averages is remarkable. Suppose 1994 helped but as someone pointed out to me in an earlier post, this is up to the equivalent date and not month as a whole. Is the start of November becoming an extension of early autumn, through climate change?

---

I think we had this discussion before 

The 2 figures are not directly comparable because one of them is the average for 1 Nov and the other for the whole month 

My musing regarded the two periods, 61-90 and 81-10, not this year's single day of data. Apologies if that did not come across clearly.

---

IMANSSF22              9.6c                 NICKS-1BATH 75           9.2c
Metcheck                 9.62c                       Anomaly                2.7c
Netweather              10.67c                     Anomaly                3.78c
Peasedown St John   9.31c                      Anomaly                1.11c. 

---

9.9c to the 2nd

3.5c above the 61 to 90 average
0.7c above the 81 to 10 average

No Bertwhistle that's what I meant 
The 61-90 and 81-10 figures aren't directly comparable to each other as the cooler one is an average for the whole month of November and the warm one is just the average of 1st Nov each year which clearly will be way higher 

I would argue that really and truly they should both be just the average for the MTD or both for the complete month each day 

As it is, it gives a misleading impression of how much the month has warmed as it is . November is milder than years ago on average but not by that margin 

That is what I thought was said when someone raised the same question last month - I may have the wrong end of the stock though apologies if so 

Blimey, that high? The last few days have felt bloody cold.

Mind you, November is still a rapidly cooling month, so I suppose it doesn't say much yet.

---

Looking at the figures it stands to reason 

9.2C must be a figure for the first 2 days, very few November's have been warmer than that overall ever 
6.4C seems too cool for the first 2 days in 61-90 and looks like a whole month figure 

IMANSF22                 8.7c                NICKS-1BATH 75             8.6c
Metcheck                  9.23c               Anomaly                         2.31c
Netweather               10.27c             Anomaly                         3.32c
Peasedown St John   8.68c               Anomaly                         0.48c.

---