Frank H
  • Frank H
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
27 October 2023 16:25:23
Please pm your November prediction to me by midnight on 31st October.

Please try to meet the deadline.

I will post my own prediction directly onto the thread.

Some background information:

Average 1991 -20 = 7.3c

Warmest all time = 9.9c (1994) 

Coldest this century = 5.1c (2010)  -  1985 was 3.9c

Last 5 years:

2018 = 8.3c

2019 = 6.2c

2020 = 8.5c

2021 = 7.2c

2022 = 9.2c 
Wrightington, Wigan
Hungry Tiger
28 October 2023 07:54:50
[Just stickied it for you Frank.  🙂
Gavin S. FRmetS.
TWO Moderator.
Contact the TWO team - [email protected]
South Cambridgeshire. 93 metres or 302.25 feet ASL.


Ally Pally Snowman
28 October 2023 08:05:19
Not looking particularly mild atm. Chilly and wet likely. 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Frank H
  • Frank H
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
31 October 2023 19:59:26
7.15c for me
Wrightington, Wigan
Frank H
  • Frank H
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
01 November 2023 13:34:28
November Predictions

All predictions below in on time.

Thanks all for your efforts in this.

The top 2 in the October table, Bolty and Ricm, almost a degree apart with their November predictions. 

Gavin D            8.90
col                    8.62
sussex snow magnet 8.40
dingle rob        8.40
redmoons         8.20
artzeman          8.20
scillydave          8.12
bertwhistle       8.02
rickm                7.85
gezm               7.80
tierradelfuego  7.80
stomchaser       7.70
grandad           7.70
ap snowman    7.50
caz                   7.50
lanky                7.42
frank h             7.15
Dickieboy68    7.10
bolty                6.90
snowshoe        6.85
hungry tiger    6.80
jmm2005         6.75
windywillow    6.70
taylor1740       6.50
sswd                6.50
kendalian        5.90
Wrightington, Wigan
Spring Sun Winter Dread
01 November 2023 23:30:49
Surprised to be so near the bottom with a not particularly cold guess 
 
ARTzeman
02 November 2023 10:51:44
IMANSF22                9.6c               NICKS-1BATH 75              9.6c
Metcheck                 10.19c                 Anomaly                     3.27C
Netweather              11.34c                 Anomaly                     4.45c
Peasedown St John  9.52                     Anomaly                    1.32c.




Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
Gavin D
02 November 2023 13:10:24
Hadley

11.2c to the 1st

4.7c above the 61 to 90 average
1.8c above the 81 to 10 average
Bertwhistle
02 November 2023 18:17:10
Originally Posted by: Gavin D 

Hadley

11.2c to the 1st

4.7c above the 61 to 90 average
1.8c above the 81 to 10 average



An almost 3 degree difference between 61-90 and 81-10 averages is remarkable. Suppose 1994 helped but as someone pointed out to me in an earlier post, this is up to the equivalent date and not month as a whole. Is the start of November becoming an extension of early autumn, through climate change?
Bertie, Itchen Valley.
'We'll never see 40 celsius in this country'.
Spring Sun Winter Dread
02 November 2023 23:56:47
I think we had this discussion before 

The 2 figures are not directly comparable because one of them is the average for 1 Nov and the other for the whole month 
Bertwhistle
03 November 2023 07:17:13
Originally Posted by: Spring Sun Winter Dread 

I think we had this discussion before 

The 2 figures are not directly comparable because one of them is the average for 1 Nov and the other for the whole month 



My musing regarded the two periods, 61-90 and 81-10, not this year's single day of data. Apologies if that did not come across clearly.
Bertie, Itchen Valley.
'We'll never see 40 celsius in this country'.
ARTzeman
03 November 2023 12:03:40
IMANSSF22              9.6c                 NICKS-1BATH 75           9.2c
Metcheck                 9.62c                       Anomaly                2.7c
Netweather              10.67c                     Anomaly                3.78c
Peasedown St John   9.31c                      Anomaly                1.11c. 




Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
Gavin D
03 November 2023 14:15:04
9.9c to the 2nd

3.5c above the 61 to 90 average
0.7c above the 81 to 10 average
Spring Sun Winter Dread
03 November 2023 17:57:32
No Bertwhistle that's what I meant 
The 61-90 and 81-10 figures aren't directly comparable to each other as the cooler one is an average for the whole month of November and the warm one is just the average of 1st Nov each year which clearly will be way higher 

I would argue that really and truly they should both be just the average for the MTD or both for the complete month each day 

As it is, it gives a misleading impression of how much the month has warmed as it is . November is milder than years ago on average but not by that margin 

That is what I thought was said when someone raised the same question last month - I may have the wrong end of the stock though apologies if so 
Bolty
03 November 2023 17:59:22
Originally Posted by: Gavin D 

9.9c to the 2nd

3.5c above the 61 to 90 average
0.7c above the 81 to 10 average



Blimey, that high? The last few days have felt bloody cold.

Mind you, November is still a rapidly cooling month, so I suppose it doesn't say much yet.
Scott
Blackrod, Lancashire (4 miles south of Chorley) at 156m asl.
My weather station 
Spring Sun Winter Dread
03 November 2023 18:00:23
Looking at the figures it stands to reason 

9.2C must be a figure for the first 2 days, very few November's have been warmer than that overall ever 
6.4C seems too cool for the first 2 days in 61-90 and looks like a whole month figure 
ARTzeman
04 November 2023 10:35:17
IMANSF22                 8.7c                NICKS-1BATH 75             8.6c
Metcheck                  9.23c               Anomaly                         2.31c
Netweather               10.27c             Anomaly                         3.32c
Peasedown St John   8.68c               Anomaly                         0.48c.




Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
Bertwhistle
04 November 2023 10:45:09


I would argue that really and truly they should both be just the average for the MTD or both for the complete month each day 

As it is, it gives a misleading impression of how much the month has warmed as it is . November is milder than years ago on average but not by that margin 

That is what I thought was said when someone raised the same question last month - I may have the wrong end of the stock though apologies if so 



I think I see now. I wrongly assumed that such data would be published to the same criteria for both periods. I agree with you- not comparable and tbh not very helpful if one makes the same assumption as me! Thanks for the clarification.

I think the mtd figure is a better guide especially in spring & autumn when temperatures change rapidly.
Bertie, Itchen Valley.
'We'll never see 40 celsius in this country'.
Gavin D
04 November 2023 12:44:33
Hadley

9.9c to the 3rd

3.5c above the 61 to 90 average
0.8c above the 81 to 10 average
ARTzeman
05 November 2023 10:45:42
IMANSF22                8.8c                NICKS-1BATH 75              8.9c
Metcheck                 8.97c              Anomaly                           2.05c
Netweather              9.77c              Anomaly                           2.88c
Peasedown St John  9.27c              Anomaly                           1.07c.                  




Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
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