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Frank H
  • Frank H
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
28 August 2023 10:01:30
Please pm your September prediction to me by midnight on 31st August.

Please try to meet the deadline.

I will post my own prediction directly onto the thread.

Some background information:

Average 1991 -20 = 14.2c

Warmest all time = 16.9c (2006) 

Coldest all time  = 10.5c (4 times over 200 years ago),   1986 was 11.3c

Coldest this century = 12.7c (2015)

Last 5 years:

2018 = 13.7c

2019 = 14.3c

2020 = 14.0c

2021 = 16.0c

2022 = 14.4c 
Wrightington, Wigan
+4
Frank H
  • Frank H
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
30 August 2023 11:48:16
just bumping the topic back to page 1
Wrightington, Wigan
Ally Pally Snowman
31 August 2023 09:11:58
When was the last time September was warmer than July? Definitely a chance first 10 days at least look very warm. 
 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Bertwhistle
31 August 2023 09:48:32
I've placed my prediction with the upcoming warm spell in mind, but mindful of cool nights under clear skies.
Bertie, Itchen Valley.
Retire while you can still press the 'retire now' button.
GezM
  • GezM
  • Advanced Member
31 August 2023 10:26:52

When was the last time September was warmer than July? Definitely a chance first 10 days at least look very warm. 
 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 


If my rudimentary Excel skills are correct, September was equal with July for CET in 1980 and 1961. You have to go back to 1895 to find a warmer September (15.4) than July (15.2).

There have only been 4 Septembers which have beaten the July 2023 figure of 16.1C - 1729, 1865, 1949 and 2006. 2016 equalled it.

So a big ask but not impossible.  
Living in St Albans, Herts (116m asl)
Working at Luton Airport, Beds (160m asl)
+1
Ally Pally Snowman
31 August 2023 10:44:32

If my rudimentary Excel skills are correct, September was equal with July for CET in 1980 and 1961. You have to go back to 1895 to find a warmer September (15.4) than July (15.2).

There have only been 4 Septembers which have beaten the July 2023 figure of 16.1C - 1729, 1865, 1949 and 2006. 2016 equalled it.

So a big ask but not impossible.  

Originally Posted by: GezM 



Brilliant work thanks.

Remarkably rare then. I've gone for it with my guess why not. Think we all deserve a hot and sunny September. 

 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Hungry Tiger
31 August 2023 13:39:00
Just stickied it for you Frank.  🙂
Gavin S. FRmetS.
TWO Moderator.
Contact the TWO team - [email protected]
South Cambridgeshire. 93 metres or 302.25 feet ASL.


+1
Hungry Tiger
31 August 2023 13:40:53
Some serious thinking needed here. 🙂
Gavin S. FRmetS.
TWO Moderator.
Contact the TWO team - [email protected]
South Cambridgeshire. 93 metres or 302.25 feet ASL.


Frank H
  • Frank H
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
31 August 2023 17:09:13
15.55c for me
Wrightington, Wigan
Bolty
31 August 2023 17:40:46
This has got all the hallmarks of a very warm September, if you ask me...
Scott
Blackrod, Lancashire (4 miles south of Chorley) at 156m asl.
My weather station 
Frank H
  • Frank H
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
01 September 2023 07:30:21
 September Predictions

All predictions in before the deadline.

Thanks for that.

Here they are (before the final August number), with a lot of us going for a warm month.

snowshoe       16.60
ap snowman   16.20
bolty               16.20
ozone_aurora 16.20
redmoons       16.15
gezm              16.05
stomchaser     16.03
jmm2005        16.00
bertwhistle      15.64
grandad          15.60
frank h            15.55
scillydave        15.45
sswd               15.30
dingle rob       15.20
tierradelfuego 15.20
col                   15.12
taylor1740       15.10
rickm               14.95
kendalian        14.90
caz                  14.80
hungry tiger    14.70
artzeman         14.70
windywillow    14.70
lanky               14.02
sussex snow magnet 13.80
Wrightington, Wigan
+1
GezM
  • GezM
  • Advanced Member
01 September 2023 10:10:02
Interesting range of predictions. I'm a little surprised somebody hasn't gone for the September record given the very warm start to the month. By my reckoning we could well have a high 18s CET after 10 days. A number of people are predicting a major cool down after the early heat.

Will we flip to full autumn mode later in the month or will we get a longer final taste of summer?
Living in St Albans, Herts (116m asl)
Working at Luton Airport, Beds (160m asl)
GezM
  • GezM
  • Advanced Member
01 September 2023 10:13:54
I was looking through the CET stats last night. Interestingly, we've never had a year where all 4 months from June to September had a CET of 16C or more. Potential for that to happen this year ......
Living in St Albans, Herts (116m asl)
Working at Luton Airport, Beds (160m asl)
Spring Sun Winter Dread
01 September 2023 11:13:11
No one going for a record but nonetheless alot of very high numbers there 
September 2006 on 16.9C is the warmest by a margin of more than half a degree C and anything above 15.6C would be hotter than any September between 1949 and 2006, so anything north of 15.5 is elite territory really 
+1
ARTzeman
02 September 2023 09:07:29
IMANSF22                  15.6c            Haydon Radstock          14.9c
Metcheck                    15.91c                   Anomaly               2.29c
Netweather                 16.93c                   Anomaly               3.24c
Peasedown St John     14.1c                     Anomaly               -0.6c.




Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
Gavin D
02 September 2023 13:16:24
Hadley

17.1c to the 1st

3.5c above the 61 to 90 average
1.7c above the 81 to 10 average
ARTzeman
03 September 2023 09:12:49
IMANSF22                16.1c              Haydon Radstock          16.05c
Metcheck                  16.08c                   Anomaly                  2.30c
Netweather               17.33c                   Anomaly                  3.4c 
Peasedown St John   14.15c                   Anomaly                  -0.2c.    




Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
Gavin D
03 September 2023 12:49:20
Hadley

17.6c to the 2nd

4.0c above the 61 to 90 average
2.2c above the 81 to 10 average
ARTzeman
04 September 2023 09:51:49
IMANSF22                16.9c             Haydon Radstock          17.3c
Metcheck                  16.44c                    Anomaly               2.72c
Netweather               17.7c                      Anomaly               4.1c
Peasedown st John    17.46c                   Anomaly                1.83c.  




Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
Gavin D
04 September 2023 13:09:07
Hadley

17.5c to the 3rd

4.0c above the 61 to 90 average
2.2c above the 81 to 10 average
Hungry Tiger
04 September 2023 13:25:52
I've stuffed this one. Went for 14.7C. Never be surprised now if this one ended at 16+
Gavin S. FRmetS.
TWO Moderator.
Contact the TWO team - [email protected]
South Cambridgeshire. 93 metres or 302.25 feet ASL.


TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member
04 September 2023 17:49:17

I've stuffed this one. Went for 14.7C. Never be surprised now if this one ended at 16+

Originally Posted by: Hungry Tiger 



If GFS 12z this evening came off then nevermind 16C, we'd be talking 18C+
Brockley, South East London 30m asl
Hungry Tiger
04 September 2023 18:41:46

If GFS 12z this evening came off then nevermind 16C, we'd be talking 18C+

Originally Posted by: TimS 



 😮   😮
Gavin S. FRmetS.
TWO Moderator.
Contact the TWO team - [email protected]
South Cambridgeshire. 93 metres or 302.25 feet ASL.


Bolty
04 September 2023 22:14:25
What's incredible to think is: July, which is normally the warmest month of the year, could end up being the fourth warmest month of 2023! Cooler than June, August and September. That would surely be unprecedented for the CET and UK weather records?

That said, a 17°C June and a 17°C September in the same year would be extraordinary. It would be on par with getting a 19°C July and August in the same summer.
Scott
Blackrod, Lancashire (4 miles south of Chorley) at 156m asl.
My weather station 
ARTzeman
05 September 2023 11:03:07
IMANSF22                  17.6c            Haydon Radstock           18.7c
Metcheck                    17.24c                 Anomaly                   3.53c
Netweather                 13.37c                 Anomaly                   4.68c
Peasedown St John     18.36c                 Anomaly                   -3.66c




Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
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