That wouldn't surprise me one single bit because although we have gone into an easterly QBO which would normally be an indicator that is in favour us getting a cold winter, there's just too much warm water around in our oceans just now for my liking.
We can't also forget that we had an easterly QBO two years ago, but still couldn't get a cold winter from that and yet, last winter was a bit colder, especially in December despite that being a westerly QBO winter (which would normally go against us getting a cold winter).
I'm pleased that the NE Pacific Ocean has cooled down a bit recently, but we are now in a positive IOD situation in the Indian Ocean which is very concerning indeed because the last time that happened, that was largely blamed for the very mild winter which we ended up getting with that in place.
In addition to that, it now looks as though we will also go into the winter with a moderate or possibly, strong El Nino in the Equatorial Pacific Ocean. If that develops into a centrally based (Modoki) El Nino, that could slightly improve our chances of a cold winter.
However, I'm not holding my breath out for that in any way. Finally, there has been a lot of discussion in the Model Output and September CET threads about whether or not, this month could end up being the warmest September on record.
Even if that doesn't actually end up being happening in the end, the very fact that this matter is even being discussed comes down to the fact that this has been a very warm month, and that is also very concerning as far as the general outlook for the coming winter is concerned because those of you who have followed Gavin P.'s excellent winter update videos over the years will know very well that warm Septembers don't generally bode very well when it comes to our prospects of getting a cold winter (Mark Vogan has also backed that up in one or two of his own recent videos).
When you add all of that together and when you also consider that we have also entered into a very active phase within Solar Cycle 25, I still can't see us actually getting a cold winter even though we've managed to get an active Atlantic Hurricane season this time despite that on-going El Nino (active Atlantic hurricane seasons tend to act in our favour in terms of us getting a cold winter).
I could easily be wrong with that prediction of course and so, it's always possible that we could still get a cold winter anyway. However, this is an occasion where I'm now hoping that I am wrong in that regard.
The north of Edinburgh, usually always missing out on snow events which occur not just within the rest of Scotland or the UK, but also within the rest of Edinburgh.