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Brian Gaze
03 July 2023 08:30:29
Things continue to look quite mixed. Onwards...
Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
ballamar
03 July 2023 10:53:31
Arpege ramps up the precipitation tomorrow in the SE. Welcome rain for the gardens
Rob K
03 July 2023 11:44:49

Arpege ramps up the precipitation tomorrow in the SE. Welcome rain for the gardens

Originally Posted by: ballamar 


Anyone would think Wimbledon had just started!

The hot plumey scenarios seem to have disappeared today. Even GEM looking pretty meh.
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Ally Pally Snowman
03 July 2023 16:27:50
Half decent UKMO 12z the low stays out west to 144h. Very warm in the east.  Would be nice if the UKMO is leading the way here but it rarely does these days.
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Brian Gaze
03 July 2023 17:13:25

Half decent UKMO 12z the low stays out west to 144h. Very warm in the east.  Would be nice if the UKMO is leading the way here but it rarely does these days.

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 



Not really sure it's that good.

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/ukmetuk.aspx?run=12&charthour=117&chartname=precip_type&chartregion=uk-region&charttag=Precip%20type 

Sunday looks fine though.

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/ukmetuk.aspx?run=12&charthour=150&chartname=2m_max_temp&chartregion=uk-region&charttag=2m%20max%20temp%20C 

 
Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Ally Pally Snowman
03 July 2023 18:22:27


Well the UKV has 29c both Friday and Saturday.  Take what we can get atm.
 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Jiries
03 July 2023 20:42:44

Well the UKV has 29c both Friday and Saturday.  Take what we can get atm.
 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 



Very cold and wet for London tomorrow than in the Midlands but any warmth that coming from Friday I will take that warmth to warm up indoor primarily, nothing else because the timing of the warmth is far too short and lack of sunny days ahead of it.
Ally Pally Snowman
04 July 2023 05:41:23
Bit more optimism this morning.  Low pressure stays further west for longer this weekend. And GFS and GEM  has  high pressure building in day 9.
 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
04 July 2023 07:02:06
WX temp charts show temps not far from seasonal average across Europe for the next two weeks, comfortably warm in the south and cool in the north. For Britain, that 'comfortably warm' means essentially the SE; and given that these charts are an average, they imply that a predicted burst of warmth at the weekend is likely to be shortlived. Rain mostly from Britain to W Scandinavia in week 1, drifting E-wards in week 2, and a separate narrower band extending NE from the Alps.

GFS Op - Atlantic depressions moving E-wards across Britain until Tue 18th, though the one off W Ireland on Sat 8th sticks there for a couple of days, long enough to bring up warmth from the S (and some heavy rain according to MetO). From the 18th HP from the SW takes over with 1025mb centred Cornwall Thu 20th.

ECM - similar to GFS; a hint that pressure may rise from the SW a few days sooner.

GEFS - cool for a couple of days, then a burst of warmth Sat 8th (most noticeable, as above, in the SE), but back to a little below seasonal norm from Mon 10th through to Thu 20th. Good ens agreement. Rain in the S now, not much thereafter but highest chances around Wed 12th; for the N, significant amounts of rain on and off from Sun 9th onwards
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
Tim A
04 July 2023 07:08:58

Bit more optimism this morning.  Low pressure stays further west for longer this weekend. And GFS and GEM  has  high pressure building in day 9.
 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 


Still far from ideal and ECM isn't great. 

At least it probably won't be as cool as the last few days at any point.  Down to 18c this morning in the house. 
Tim
NW Leeds
187m asl

 My PWS 
Saint Snow
04 July 2023 10:07:10
Looking generally unsettled for the foreseeable.

Not good, and a huge disappointment after a great 8-10 weeks straddling May & June

Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
Taylor1740
04 July 2023 10:14:27

Looking generally unsettled for the foreseeable.

Not good, and a huge disappointment after a great 8-10 weeks straddling May & June

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 


well it's good to see things being balanced out somewhat after the weeks of warm dry weather, I think people have just started to assume that Summers will be hot and dry now which isn't the case.
NW Leeds - 150m amsl
04 July 2023 10:37:51
At least things are warming up from Thursday. The GFS 6z op having max's of 24c 25c 22c Friday to Sunday in north Cumbria, these figures are usually 2-3c too low.  Even with the cut off low over the UK next week temperature don't look too uncomfortable. 
White Meadows
04 July 2023 21:28:55
Looks like a long drag of a write off early-mid July before temps pick up again after 20th
Meanwhile back to jeans and jackets, even down south. This weekends warm blip will still be plagued by that nagging breeze. 
Downpour
04 July 2023 22:24:40
The raw output this weekend in London/SE is 28, 27 and 23. Jeans and jackets probably excessive. 
Chingford
London E4
147ft
White Meadows
05 July 2023 05:22:07
Make the most of it. Intermittent drizzle and temps pegged back with wind & grey skies the common theme from next week. 
Ally Pally Snowman
05 July 2023 05:26:09
UKMO is ok this morning certainly in the SE. But GFS and GEM are miserable.  July looking more and more like a complete write  off certainly the first half. The global drivers were supposed to stick the low pressure in the mid Atlantic but they have stuck it right over the UK by the looks of it. Copious rainfall especially for the west. Awful.  
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Zubzero
05 July 2023 05:44:14

UKMO is ok this morning certainly in the SE. But GFS and GEM are miserable.  July looking more and more like a complete write  off certainly the first half. The global drivers were supposed to stick the low pressure in the mid Atlantic but they have stuck it right over the UK by the looks of it. Copious rainfall especially for the west. Awful.  

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 



Shhh your awake moomin from his slumber ☺
Ally Pally Snowman
05 July 2023 06:06:34

Shhh your awake moomin from his slumber ☺

Originally Posted by: Zubzero 



We need him to write off summer that normally helps. 😁
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Tim A
05 July 2023 06:52:18
Only positive is the dreaded sub 5c 850pa line doesn't really get back across the country (like it is now) until at least Day 9/10.  So shouldn't get as cold next week as it has been.   Means the house will be a bit more comfortable at least!
Tim
NW Leeds
187m asl

 My PWS 
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
05 July 2023 07:05:23
Isotherms for the next two weeks running west to east more or less in parallel according to WX charts, i.e. cool in the north of Europe, warm in the centre (in week 1 definitely warm in places), hot in the Med. This puts N Scotland in the cool area and SE England in the warm area, both close to long-term average. Some rain across Britain (esp the N) and on into Scandinavia tending to move off E-wards, also a streak extending NE or E from the Alps.

GFS Op - LP setting up off SW Ireland, 995mb by Fri 7th with S-ly drift for most of Britain but soon filling and crossing over to the E by Tue 11th, followed by a series of shallow LPs moving E-wards across Scotland briefly interspersed with ridges of HP through to Fri 21st. Yesterday's HP from the SW no longer showing up; pressure typically around 1015mb in S England to 1000mb in N Scotland for the period after Mon 10th.

ECM - As GFS at first, but later (from Fri 14th) not a procession of LPs but HP established in mid-Atlantic; drier but with cool NW-lies.

GEFS - burst of warmth Sat 8th, most marked in SE, else a long period of temps close to or a little below norm with good ens agreement. Rain from time to time after Sun 9th, hit and miss in the far S, but frequent in the N. No great amounts at any time in most runs.
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
moomin75
05 July 2023 07:11:27

Shhh your awake moomin from his slumber ☺

Originally Posted by: Zubzero 


I'm awake! And yes the models are pretty ordinary at the moment.
Looks like we have to accept the next week to ten days (at least) is going to be pretty bad, save for a couple of hotter days coming up.
Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
Ally Pally Snowman
05 July 2023 07:15:51
ECM best of a bad bunch this morning.  More so for the SE. Hints of high pressure building in day 10 but weak signal atm.
 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Retron
05 July 2023 07:21:01
I thought I'd logged onto the moaning thread this morning! 🤣

One of the more unusual features of the models at the moment is the very warm plume that's going to graze the SE at the end of the week: GFS, for example, has 27C here in a gusty easterly on Friday afternoon. That'll be the second time this summer that we've had a windy/hot combo, and both times it's been with winds just south of east. Very unusual!
Leysdown, north Kent
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
05 July 2023 07:29:00

I'm awake! And yes the models are pretty ordinary at the moment.
Looks like we have to accept the next week to ten days (at least) is going to be pretty bad, save for a couple of hotter days coming up.

Originally Posted by: moomin75 



People have been spoilt over the last decade or so with repeated heat waves. Now the models are back to showing what they do best, a zonal set-up with the consequent cool and changeable weather which should be typical of an island on the eastern side of a large ocean. 

Ask yourself why it was necessary to invent cricket sweaters🙂 Or indeed why they have gravel beds for playing boules in S France, not grass for cricket pitches.
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl

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