GFS - the well-telegraphed LP from the N arriving a day later but deeper and closer (980mb S England Fri 4th), and then retaining more of its identity as it first retreats towards Norway and then comes back a week later Thu 10th on its way to Spain. A long spell of N-lies, but no very cold air so IMO wintry rather than snowy except over hills. After a brief lull, new LP from Atlantic Tue 15th (990mb Irish Sea) with a hint of pressure rises Greenland - N Norway.
GEFS - a long period (all the way to Tue 15th) with mean of runs a couple of degrees below norm, just recovering slightly towards the end, Op and control are amongst the colder members esp around Sat 12th, up to that time there's unusually good agreement. Pptn starts Thu 3rd and continues on and off throughout but with a drier spell midway in the N. Inverness snow row after a brief set of high values settling down to mid-range (ca 10) but only occasional small values further S.
ECM - very close to GFS to Fri 4th but although LP then retreats to Norway, it also fills rapidly. New LP then moves in from N Atlantic to Brittany 990 mb Wed 9th also moving to Spain as above, so again some cold but not very cold N-lies and E-lies at that time.
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell
Chichester 12m asl