If you end up in Hospital, I'll read this out to you

If I end up in hospital, you will be the first to know Beast. Meanwhile, I am just getting on with life and not worrying too much about the random chance of catching a bug.

In the old days, TB, Typhoid, Diphtheria and a host of other communicable diseases were present in all communities, but people still got on with their lives.

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 That's the only way you get people to comply and reveal their true contacts

How far does the tracing go, I wonder?

For example, imagine this scenario:

I go back to work in the school and come down with flu-like symtoms. I get tested and find I've got it.

On my way into work the previous day (when I'd have been shedding the virus), I stopped off at the bakery and the petrol station, nipping in to get some basic supplies. On the way back, realising I'd forgotten to buy a birthday card for a friend, I popped into Tesco, queuing for 10 minutes to get in. It was busy in there and I had to queue again at the checkout.

How many of those people I'd have been involved with would get traced? Very few, I suspect!

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Get outside and enjoy the glorious weather and all those on furlough make the bloody most of this extended time off as it won`t happen again until you retire!! Iam out fishing pretty much every other day now and absolutely loving not having to go to work The chances of catching the virus outside are slim to none as long as you are sensible and careful. My motto is out of adversity comes opportunity.

That's the spirit!

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Get outside and enjoy the glorious weather and all those on furlough make the bloody most of this extended time off as it won`t happen again until you retire!! Iam out fishing pretty much every other day now and absolutely loving not having to go to work The chances of catching the virus outside are slim to none as long as you are sensible and careful. My motto is out of adversity comes opportunity.

Post of the day!

 

I get fed up with these me me me posts. Never a thought or understanding about transmission rate to the vulnerable.

If you want to hide away until we get a vaccine then be my guest. I am taking no unnecessary risks and am following government guidelines. I am the only one in my household that goes to a shop and I make every effort to keep my distance. I don’t work and my wife is working from home. I have 2 daughters and am now allowing them to see one friend at a time. If that’s me being self centred then so be it, I’ll continue to sleep easily at night.

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I report every day and don't have symptoms. But I agree it isn't totally clear how many of the 3.5 million members are reporting daily and that should be published really. I suspect it's still the biggest population sample kicking around though and the graphs tend to follow exactly what common sense would make you expect.

I occasionally forget to report some days. (I report on behalf of my wife and daughters as well as me). You can either say you're fine, or report you've got symptoms. Even if 60% of people only reported on a given day, which is quite likely, it doesn't matter because it's like an opinion poll; the total number of cases is extrapolated from the number of responses they get.

It's only inaccurate if, for some reason, there is a greater tendency for either symptomatic, or asymptomatic/uninfected people to report. The trend is only inaccurate if that tendency changes over time.

With such a large sample, it's probably a very good guide to what's really happening, and leads all other indicators (e.g. people are more likely to report symptoms before they end up being tested).

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Get outside and enjoy the glorious weather and all those on furlough make the bloody most of this extended time off as it won`t happen again until you retire!! Iam out fishing pretty much every other day now and absolutely loving not having to go to work The chances of catching the virus outside are slim to none as long as you are sensible and careful. My motto is out of adversity comes opportunity.

  Hope you’re catching!  Daniel was out there first thing Wednesday morning!  

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Oxford vaccine isn't yet a right off but "Despite the findings, there is still "cautious optimism" about the Oxford vaccine among some experts. " is miles away from 80% confident it will be effective. I still don't think the cavalry is arriving anytime soon.

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Oxford vaccine isn't yet a right off but "Despite the findings, there is still "cautious optimism" about the Oxford vaccine among some experts. " is miles away from 80% confident it will be effective. I still don't think the cavalry is arriving anytime soon.

At best, it seems the Oxford one reduces the severity of the infection. It produces antibodies but they're not enough to totally block it.

The Chinese one is a better bet, if you trust it that is!

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/04/covid-19-vaccine-protects-monkeys-new-coronavirus-chinese-biotech-reports

 

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The antibodies testing over here is picking up historic cases of covid. As we only have 4 active cases at the moment, testing is now being used for tracing and community immunity. We have had several cases now where people felt ill 6 or 7 weeks ago and had the original swab test which was negative. Now are found to have the antibodies which would suggest the swab testing is Not as reliable as we would like. Not surprising due to how invasive the swab test is even when carried out by medical practitioners. 

 

 

From my recollection of the positive story the other day, the vaccine may:

 

Reduce infection within the lungs and severity of symptoms. But not on its presence in the nose/throat.

So people who are vaccinated are more likely to have weak symptoms but can still pass it on.

 

Not ideal , but better than nothing?

 

Will be interesting to see whether countries rush for a suboptimal vaccine or hold out for a more effective one.

 

 

Yup I think that's correct. If nothing else it could potentially significantly reduce mortality and those suffering serious complications - the big problem as you say is do you rush out and vaccinate with that or wait and see if something better comes along. 

That would be a really horribly decision to make IMO - on the one hand waiting will mean people die that didn't need to and if no more effective vaccine is developed the deaths will be even higher and entirely needless, on the other if having this vaccine means you can't have one that would stop the disease spreading your country is going to be disadvantaged once that's available and if the original vaccine only reduced deaths to a less horrible number whereas the new one stopped them entirely you're going to get crucified for that.

Could all be irrelevant I guess if the small scale human trial is a bust but hopefully even the failed attempts will help us learn more about the virus so better treatments can be developed even if a preventative vaccine isn't possible.

 

 

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Get outside and enjoy the glorious weather and all those on furlough make the bloody most of this extended time off as it won`t happen again until you retire!! Iam out fishing pretty much every other day now and absolutely loving not having to go to work The chances of catching the virus outside are slim to none as long as you are sensible and careful. My motto is out of adversity comes opportunity.

You are bang on

All i'm hearing from those at home on furlough is " I'm boreddddddddddddddddd " we are working like mad here.

 

They have had constant dry weather in these parts for 7 weeks , as you said wont happen again 

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You are bang on

All i'm hearing from those at home on furlough is " I'm boreddddddddddddddddd " we are working like mad here.

 

They have had constant dry weather in these parts for 7 weeks , as you said wont happen again 

I agree as well. Some of those who have been furloughed don't realise how lucky they have been - paid 80% of their wage to do F all for the last 7 weeks, whilst people like you and I have been working non-stop since through this pandemic. I've got a week off at the start of June and I honestly can't wait for it...

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All i'm hearing from those at home on furlough is " I'm boreddddddddddddddddd " we are working like mad here.

 They have had constant dry weather in these parts for 7 weeks , as you said wont happen again 

Only boring people get bored, as my mum said (after I complained bitterly one half-term about being bored. I then got roped into cleaning the bathroom, vacuuming the floors, cleaning the windows, weeding, helping with the laundry... now that was boring!)

It's actually quite an eye-opener that some people are so wedded to their jobs that they don't know how to fill the time without it! By working at home I've gained about 12 hours a week (due to lack of commuting and getting in early), but do I notice it? Not at all - the time gets eaten up by all sorts of things, including tending to the garden. At least that looks a bit tidier than it has for a few years.

I want to retire as soon as I can, truth be told. I don't miss the commute whatsoever and although I may miss the social aspects of work, I'll be gaining a dog (and can still invite friends round).

All being well, I'll have less than 10 years of the "rat run" to go... and boy, it's going to be a jolt when things finally get back to normal with the commute...

In the meantime, at least there's a bank holiday weekend coming up. I plan to spend a couple of hours of it watching the new Star Wars movie, should be fun!

 

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If you want to hide away until we get a vaccine then be my guest. I am taking no unnecessary risks and am following government guidelines. I am the only one in my household that goes to a shop and I make every effort to keep my distance. I don’t work and my wife is working from home. I have 2 daughters and am now allowing them to see one friend at a time. If that’s me being self centred then so be it, I’ll continue to sleep easily at night.

Sorry, I apologise . That sounds fine. I read it as if you were saying there was no risk to you and you hadn't thought about transmission but clearly you have.  

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I occasionally forget to report some days. (I report on behalf of my wife and daughters as well as me). You can either say you're fine, or report you've got symptoms. Even if 60% of people only reported on a given day, which is quite likely, it doesn't matter because it's like an opinion poll; the total number of cases is extrapolated from the number of responses they get.

It's only inaccurate if, for some reason, there is a greater tendency for either symptomatic, or asymptomatic/uninfected people to report. The trend is only inaccurate if that tendency changes over time.

With such a large sample, it's probably a very good guide to what's really happening, and leads all other indicators (e.g. people are more likely to report symptoms before they end up being tested).

Yes, my view entirely. It's hard to tell which outnumbers which in terms of over reporting or asymptomatic, but as you say it won't affect the trend graph.

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 Only boring people get bored, as my mum said.

You should have told your mum that made no sense as boring people wouldn't know when they were bored. Ha!

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I agree as well. Some of those who have been furloughed don't realise how lucky they have been - paid 80% of their wage to do F all for the last 7 weeks, whilst people like you and I have been working non-stop since through this pandemic. I've got a week off at the start of June and I honestly can't wait for it...

The threat of redundancy once you get back to work takes the edge off, ever so slightly though. 

Being furloughed isn't wonderful for everybody. For many, the whole experience will be tainted with severe anxiety. 

 

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At best, it seems the Oxford one reduces the severity of the infection. It produces antibodies but they're not enough to totally block it.

The Chinese one is a better bet, if you trust it that is!

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/04/covid-19-vaccine-protects-monkeys-new-coronavirus-chinese-biotech-reports

 

A vaccine which significantly reduces the severity of infection would also be a game changer though. Obviously it depends on the extent. 

I'm going to take news reports re. the Oxford vaccine with a pinch of salt for now.

 

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At best, it seems the Oxford one reduces the severity of the infection. It produces antibodies but they're not enough to totally block it.

The Chinese one is a better bet, if you trust it that is!

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/04/covid-19-vaccine-protects-monkeys-new-coronavirus-chinese-biotech-reports

 

Yes, the Chinese one is now the favoured candidate. I believe the US have one in human trials and the Germans kick off next month (or it could be this month actually).

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