The Weather Outlook

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Gavin D
11 April 2020 13:58:47
April 4th currently has the highest total for the most hospital deaths in a single day with 671.
Saint Snow
11 April 2020 13:58:53

BBC bosses tell interviewers to go easy on ministers.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8210271/BBC-bosses-warning-interviewers-not-ministers-pressure-coronavirus-crisis.html

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

 

Welcome to the banana republic. 

Anyone left who doesn't now believe the BBC is now little more than a Tory Party mouthpiece?

 

Martin

Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)

A TWO addict since 14/12/01

"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."

Aneurin Bevan

Saint Snow
11 April 2020 13:59:54

My dog is struggling with this heat, and is in need of a haircut. 

Seems daft why dog groomers are forced to close. 

Martin

Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)

A TWO addict since 14/12/01

"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."

Aneurin Bevan

Ulric
11 April 2020 14:01:47

 In other words the lockdown is not effective enough to bring R0 down to 1. 

The consequences of this are very concerning.

Originally Posted by: Quantum 

Notice though, that the government haven't actually done anything to reduce R0. They have issued advice and loans but responsibility for compliance remains with you and me. This provides the government with two things.

An economy in long term debt to it.

Plausible deniability.

Its a rent-seekers paradise.

Solar is only worth it if your roof has toenail fungus.
llamedos
  • llamedos
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
11 April 2020 14:04:17

My dog is struggling with this heat, and is in need of a haircut. 

Seems daft why dog groomers are forced to close. 

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 

Do what my one does Martin

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twocommunity/default.aspx?g=posts&t=21026

or just groom it daily......just as good as a haircut.

"Life with the Lions"

TWO Moderator

Gavin D
11 April 2020 14:09:59
Government presser is at 4pm

Lead by Priti Patel

With

Martin Hewitt, Chair of the National Police Chiefs' Council.

Steve Powis, NHS England Medical Director.

springsunshine
11 April 2020 14:11:16

From what I can deduce from recent days figures are that this virus was spreading like wildfire in March before the lockdown and the vast majority of deaths are as a result of conracting it before lockdown?? Therefore shouldn`t we be seeing a sharp drop by the end of next week?

CreweCold
11 April 2020 14:14:43

Another poor performance from the JFF model.

Projected: 4259 confirmed cases

Actual: 5234 confirmed cases

Its quite worrying we are seeing this, I really hope this is just two bad days and we will see a large drop tommorow. If the model is wrong then it would imply that we are no longer seeing an approximately linear decline in R0. In other words the lockdown is not effective enough to bring R0 down to 1. 

The consequences of this are very concerning.

 

Originally Posted by: Quantum 

The 'lockdown' has been a shambles. I've been working through it and have seen the amount of people milling about seemingly without a care.

Crewe, Cheshire

55 metres above sea level

speckledjim
11 April 2020 14:15:06

 

Today's figures are horrible. The only hope is they aren't skewered because it is Saturday. If they are the true count could be closer to 1500. That's excluding care homes. 

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

We won’t know for sure re accuracy until we get the figures from next Tuesday.

Thorner, West Yorkshire



Journalism is organised gossip

fairweather
11 April 2020 14:15:17

From what I can deduce from recent days figures are that this virus was spreading like wildfire in March before the lockdown and the vast majority of deaths are as a result of conracting it before lockdown?? Therefore shouldn`t we be seeing a sharp drop by the end of next week?

Originally Posted by: springsunshine 

Should, yes!

S.Essex, 42m ASL
The Beast from the East
11 April 2020 14:16:01

Government presser is at 4pm

Lead by Priti Patel

With

Martin Hewitt, Chair of the National Police Chiefs' Council.
Steve Powis, NHS England Medical Director.

Originally Posted by: Gavin D 

WTF!

I'm tuning in for this one

Purley, Surrey, 70m ASL

"We have some alternative facts for you"

Kelly-Ann Conway - former special adviser to the President

speckledjim
11 April 2020 14:16:34

 

The 'lockdown' has been a shambles. I've been working through it and have seen the amount of people milling about seemingly without a care.

Originally Posted by: CreweCold 

Its worked really well round me, everyone is obeying it. I’m sure there are areas where it isn’t but I’d imagine the vast majority of the country are obeying the guidelines

Thorner, West Yorkshire



Journalism is organised gossip

The Beast from the East
11 April 2020 14:17:20

 

Should, yes!

Originally Posted by: fairweather 

They should drop but perhaps not as much as Spain, Italy and France as our lockdown is softer and some are ignoring it 

Purley, Surrey, 70m ASL

"We have some alternative facts for you"

Kelly-Ann Conway - former special adviser to the President

CreweCold
11 April 2020 14:18:53

 

Its worked really well round me, everyone is obeying it. I’m sure there are areas where it isn’t but I’d imagine the vast majority of the country are obeying the guidelines

Originally Posted by: speckledjim 

If lockdown was working well, we'd be seeing a big drop in case numbers and hospital admissions by now...almost 3 weeks in.

Crewe, Cheshire

55 metres above sea level

westv
11 April 2020 14:18:54

 

Its worked really well round me, everyone is obeying it. I’m sure there are areas where it isn’t but I’d imagine the vast majority of the country are obeying the guidelines

Originally Posted by: speckledjim 

The Google data thing and the daily graphs shown in the press conferences appear to show that too.

At least it will be mild!
Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
11 April 2020 14:20:38

Another poor performance from the JFF model.

Projected: 4259 confirmed cases

Actual: 5234 confirmed cases

Its quite worrying we are seeing this, I really hope this is just two bad days and we will see a large drop tommorow. If the model is wrong then it would imply that we are no longer seeing an approximately linear decline in R0. In other words the lockdown is not effective enough to bring R0 down to 1. 

The consequences of this are very concerning.

 

Originally Posted by: Quantum 

Remember though that we are testing considerably more now and not just hospital admissions.  So some of the positives could be mild or asymptomatic cases.  

Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.

Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition.

Gooner
11 April 2020 14:20:50

From what I can deduce from recent days figures are that this virus was spreading like wildfire in March before the lockdown and the vast majority of deaths are as a result of conracting it before lockdown?? Therefore shouldn`t we be seeing a sharp drop by the end of next week?

Originally Posted by: springsunshine 

You are assuming the restrictions have been tight ( it isn't a lockdown by any stretch of the imagination ) there are thousands of people still working in the manufacturing and construction industry without any sort of policing just a reliance that business's are doing the right thing.

On top of the above as I said on Thursday , you'd have no idea there were restrictions in place going on the amount of people strolling through Banbury .

I was talking to a mate last weekend , his sister in law is a member of Northants police , she has 300 villages to cover - you have no chance 

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus

Banbury

North Oxfordshire

378 feet A S L



warrenb
11 April 2020 14:20:58

 

Its worked really well round me, everyone is obeying it. I’m sure there are areas where it isn’t but I’d imagine the vast majority of the country are obeying the guidelines

Originally Posted by: speckledjim 

 

Now now a little to optimistic for this thread i am afraid. Go wash your mouth out and come back with a sort of government failing or negative comparison to another country.

Tonbridge 45m 
Heavy Weather 2013
11 April 2020 14:22:14

Remember though that we are testing considerably more now and not just hospital admissions.  So some of the positives could be mild or asymptomatic cases.  

Originally Posted by: Caz 

Have they now started testing people who are not in hospital?

Mark

Beckton, E London

Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.

Retron
11 April 2020 14:22:26

 

Its worked really well round me, everyone is obeying it. I’m sure there are areas where it isn’t but I’d imagine the vast majority of the country are obeying the guidelines

Originally Posted by: speckledjim 

Most are, but there are certainly plenty who aren't. Heck, just on the little 9-by-5 Isle of Sheppey we've had:

Ice cream vans out and about selling ice cream

Motorcyclists roaring from end to the end of the island in groups

People coming down in motorhomes and parking by the seafront in Minster and Leysdown

Londoners coming down to the holiday parks - they're still open as they've been letting people illegally stay in them year round, and some of the people say they have nowhere else to go despite having to put down their "main address" (which is elsewhere) to be able to buy a place on them. There's enough traffic to the parks to show up on Google Maps.

One of my neighbours (not sure which) has had friends round all morning, parking outside my house.

 

Leysdown, north Kent
Gandalf The White
11 April 2020 14:24:03

Another poor performance from the JFF model.

Projected: 4259 confirmed cases

Actual: 5234 confirmed cases

Its quite worrying we are seeing this, I really hope this is just two bad days and we will see a large drop tommorow. If the model is wrong then it would imply that we are no longer seeing an approximately linear decline in R0. In other words the lockdown is not effective enough to bring R0 down to 1. 

The consequences of this are very concerning.

 

Originally Posted by: Quantum 

The Horizon programme said the R0 value had been brought below 1 by people largely staying at home and social distancing.

I think your model is doing quite well overall. We do seem to be trending down, as your model predicts.

Location: South Cambridgeshire

130 metres ASL

52.0N 0.1E



speckledjim
11 April 2020 14:24:11

 

If lockdown was working well, we'd be seeing a big drop in case numbers and hospital admissions by now...almost 3 weeks in.

Originally Posted by: CreweCold 

The rate of increase for hospital admissions is dropping and as for case numbers, the more we test the more we will find.

Thorner, West Yorkshire



Journalism is organised gossip

Justin W
11 April 2020 14:28:12
I think we have peaked in terms of growth of infections. Death toll will continue to rise to the end of next week, perhaps beyond. But some reasons for cautious optimism.
Yo yo yo. 148-3 to the 3 to the 6 to the 9, representing the ABQ, what up, biatch?
Heavy Weather 2013
11 April 2020 14:30:37

 

Most are, but there are certainly plenty who aren't. Heck, just on the little 9-by-5 Isle of Sheppey we've had:

Ice cream vans out and about selling ice cream

Motorcyclists roaring from end to the end of the island in groups

People coming down in motorhomes and parking by the seafront in Minster and Leysdown

Londoners coming down to the holiday parks - they're still open as they've been letting people illegally stay in them year round, and some of the people say they have nowhere else to go despite having to put down their "main address" (which is elsewhere) to be able to buy a place on them. There's enough traffic to the parks to show up on Google Maps.

One of my neighbours (not sure which) has had friends round all morning, parking outside my house.

 

Originally Posted by: Retron 

Not much better hear. I went for my run earlier and people were climbing the barrier to use the outside gym.

Some ground of lads using their mini Moto on the grass opposite my house and groups sunbathing.

 

Mark

Beckton, E London

Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.

Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
11 April 2020 14:33:23

 

Have they now started testing people who are not in hospital?

Originally Posted by: Heavy Weather 2013 

They’re testing frontline staff as well. 

Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.

Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition.

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