The Weather Outlook

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Brian Gaze
23 March 2020 17:56:18

A local garden centre has just slashed prices by 50% because they expect to be closed soon. How effing irresponsible is that? 

Brian Gaze

Berkhamsted

TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 

"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan

Gavin D
23 March 2020 17:56:41

 UK figures seem to be jumping around ridiculously. In recent days haven't they been something like 20%, 8%, 11% and 17.25%?

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

 

Confirmed rate for tests the past 4 days

Friday - 30.32%

Saturday - 17.72%

Sunday - 12.04%

Monday - 17.25%

 

 

Ulric
23 March 2020 17:56:50

Not sure of the veracity of this.

 

Solar is only worth it if your roof has toenail fungus.
Retron
23 March 2020 17:57:29

Just thinking about self isolating 

7 days for self isolating if you live on your own

14 days if there is a family …..……….but if there is a family of 4 , are they expecting the other 3 to be clear on day 14? why isn't it 7 days per person?

Thick question I know 

Originally Posted by: Gooner 

This diagram (from the gov't) explains it:

 

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/874011/Stay_at_home_guidance_diagram.pdf

 

Leysdown, north Kent
Quantum
23 March 2020 17:58:19

Number of cases well below what I was expecting.

JFF model now going for a total of only 23k.

But feels like the calm before the storm.

25/26 (850hpa temp) 11 days snow/sleet falling

18/11 (-4) 19/11 (-6) 20/11 (-6) 01/01 (-7) 04/01 (-10) 10/01 (-7) 11/01 (-3) 30/01 (-1) 13/02 (-6) 15/02 (-4) 18/02 (-6)

24/25 10d

18/11 (-6) 19/11 (-6) 23/11 (-2) 22/12 (-5) 04/01 (-5) 05/01 (0)14/02 (0) 15/02 (0)12/03 (-6) 13/03 (-6)

23/24 8d

29/11 (-6) 30/11 (-6) 02/12 (-5) 03/12 (-5) 04/12 (-3) 16/01 (-3) 18/01 (-8)08/02 (-5)

22/23 7d

18/12 (-1)06/03 (-6) 08/03 (-8) 09/03 (-6) 10/03 (-8) 11/03 (-5) 14/03 (-6)

21/22 12d

Brian Gaze
23 March 2020 17:58:27

 

 

Confirmed rate for tests the past 4 days

Friday - 30.32%

Saturday - 17.72%

Sunday - 12.04%

Monday - 17.25%

  

Originally Posted by: Gavin D 

Ok, so not as bad as I suggested. Friday and Sunday seem odd though.

Brian Gaze

Berkhamsted

TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 

"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan

Gavin D
23 March 2020 17:58:59

 Hi Gav, do you have a link to these figures please?

Originally Posted by: Jonesy 

 

https://www.gov.uk/guidance/coronavirus-covid-19-information-for-the-public

speckledjim
23 March 2020 17:59:34

Just thinking about self isolating 

7 days for self isolating if you live on your own

14 days if there is a family …..……….but if there is a family of 4 , are they expecting the other 3 to be clear on day 14? why isn't it 7 days per person?

Thick question I know 

Originally Posted by: Gooner 

if you are a family of 4 and you get it then you need to isolate for 7 days. The rest of the family need to isolate for 14 days as that is the period in which they can get the virus from you. Obviously if one gets it on day 12 then they need to isolate for a further 7 days. And the others will need to begin the 14 days again I believe.

Thorner, West Yorkshire



Journalism is organised gossip

Jonesy
23 March 2020 17:59:54

You have to wonder the amount of cases that nobody knows about because they are at home self-isolating or out and about without knowing they have it.

 

 

Medway Towns (Kent)

The Weather will do what it wants, when it wants, no matter what data is thrown at it !

Brian Gaze
23 March 2020 18:00:11

Not sure of the veracity of this.

 

Originally Posted by: Ulric 

Sounds like nonsense to me. If any country had tested its entire population it would be hugely important. No data from the study in Holland has yet emerged:

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-netherlands-testin/dutch-test-blood-donations-for-unseen-coronavirus-spread-idUSKBN2161S4

 

Brian Gaze

Berkhamsted

TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 

"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan

speckledjim
23 March 2020 18:01:39

 

UK figures seem to be jumping around ridiculously. In recent days haven't they been something like 20%, 8%, 11% and 17.25%?

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

Thats normal as other European countries have jumped around too

Thorner, West Yorkshire



Journalism is organised gossip

xioni2
23 March 2020 18:03:27

Not sure of the veracity of this.

 

Originally Posted by: Ulric 

Their covid page is here  https://www.covid.is/data

Quantum
23 March 2020 18:04:16

I'm kinda at a loss. The data suggests we are no longer in the exponential growth phase.

But how can this be possible?

 

There is no sign of tests being saturated (otherwise the proportion of positives would be rising far more rapidaly). But there is no reason why the curve should actually be flattening atm.

25/26 (850hpa temp) 11 days snow/sleet falling

18/11 (-4) 19/11 (-6) 20/11 (-6) 01/01 (-7) 04/01 (-10) 10/01 (-7) 11/01 (-3) 30/01 (-1) 13/02 (-6) 15/02 (-4) 18/02 (-6)

24/25 10d

18/11 (-6) 19/11 (-6) 23/11 (-2) 22/12 (-5) 04/01 (-5) 05/01 (0)14/02 (0) 15/02 (0)12/03 (-6) 13/03 (-6)

23/24 8d

29/11 (-6) 30/11 (-6) 02/12 (-5) 03/12 (-5) 04/12 (-3) 16/01 (-3) 18/01 (-8)08/02 (-5)

22/23 7d

18/12 (-1)06/03 (-6) 08/03 (-8) 09/03 (-6) 10/03 (-8) 11/03 (-5) 14/03 (-6)

21/22 12d

Gooner
23 March 2020 18:04:25

 

if you are a family of 4 and you get it then you need to isolate for 7 days. The rest of the family need to isolate for 14 days as that is the period in which they can get the virus from you. Obviously if one gets it on day 12 then they need to isolate for a further 7 days. And the others will need to begin the 14 days again I believe.

Originally Posted by: speckledjim 

Yes that's what I thought but not very well explained - I know people think 14 days and that's it

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus

Banbury

North Oxfordshire

378 feet A S L



Gandalf The White
23 March 2020 18:04:48

 

Shameful 

Originally Posted by: Gooner 

Worse than that. Un-bl**dy-believable.

Mind you, their average IQ was probably close to the strength of the beer.

Location: South Cambridgeshire

130 metres ASL

52.0N 0.1E



speckledjim
23 March 2020 18:04:56
I’m surprised that our mortality rate has dropped for the last 2 days. It should be rising as we are behind the European mainland, let’s hope it continues
Thorner, West Yorkshire



Journalism is organised gossip

xioni2
23 March 2020 18:05:11

 Sounds like nonsense to me. If any country had tested its entire population it would be hugely important. 

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

They haven't, they've tested a bit more than 10k people.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_testing#cite_note-39

Gooner
23 March 2020 18:05:53

I'm kinda at a loss. The data suggests we are no longer in the exponential growth phase.

But how can this be possible?

 

There is no sign of tests being saturated (otherwise the proportion of positives would be rising far more rapidaly). But there is no reason why the curve should actually be flattening atm.

Originally Posted by: Quantum 

Which is what I am waiting for , and then got told about understanding the bell curve but it doesn't seem to be happening for some very odd reason

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus

Banbury

North Oxfordshire

378 feet A S L



Quantum
23 March 2020 18:07:28

 

Which is what I am waiting for , and then got told about understanding the bell curve but it doesn't seem to be happening for some very off reason

Originally Posted by: Gooner 

Yeh and it's not a one off. The data suggests we left the exponential growth phase about 4-5 days ago. This is not just noisy data, something is going on. But that doesn't mean we actually have left the exponential growth phase. I'm just at a total loss as to why this is happening.

 

25/26 (850hpa temp) 11 days snow/sleet falling

18/11 (-4) 19/11 (-6) 20/11 (-6) 01/01 (-7) 04/01 (-10) 10/01 (-7) 11/01 (-3) 30/01 (-1) 13/02 (-6) 15/02 (-4) 18/02 (-6)

24/25 10d

18/11 (-6) 19/11 (-6) 23/11 (-2) 22/12 (-5) 04/01 (-5) 05/01 (0)14/02 (0) 15/02 (0)12/03 (-6) 13/03 (-6)

23/24 8d

29/11 (-6) 30/11 (-6) 02/12 (-5) 03/12 (-5) 04/12 (-3) 16/01 (-3) 18/01 (-8)08/02 (-5)

22/23 7d

18/12 (-1)06/03 (-6) 08/03 (-8) 09/03 (-6) 10/03 (-8) 11/03 (-5) 14/03 (-6)

21/22 12d

doctormog
23 March 2020 18:10:11
I see Boris Johnson is to address the nation at 20:30.
Aberdeen

Current conditions (personal WS) 

Quantum
23 March 2020 18:10:57

Incidentally I was similarly skeptical when the same thing happened in Hubei in late January, but that actually was real; and the peak happened in Early february. My model suggests we will peak in 3-4 days time unless something changes.

If I had to bet, I'd say my model was wrong and we are still in the exponential growth phase. Only because I can't see how we could have escaped it this early on given that no one is socially distancing.

 

25/26 (850hpa temp) 11 days snow/sleet falling

18/11 (-4) 19/11 (-6) 20/11 (-6) 01/01 (-7) 04/01 (-10) 10/01 (-7) 11/01 (-3) 30/01 (-1) 13/02 (-6) 15/02 (-4) 18/02 (-6)

24/25 10d

18/11 (-6) 19/11 (-6) 23/11 (-2) 22/12 (-5) 04/01 (-5) 05/01 (0)14/02 (0) 15/02 (0)12/03 (-6) 13/03 (-6)

23/24 8d

29/11 (-6) 30/11 (-6) 02/12 (-5) 03/12 (-5) 04/12 (-3) 16/01 (-3) 18/01 (-8)08/02 (-5)

22/23 7d

18/12 (-1)06/03 (-6) 08/03 (-8) 09/03 (-6) 10/03 (-8) 11/03 (-5) 14/03 (-6)

21/22 12d

Gandalf The White
23 March 2020 18:14:13

 

Yeh and it's not a one off. The data suggests we left the exponential growth phase about 4-5 days ago. This is not just noisy data, something is going on. But that doesn't mean we actually have left the exponential growth phase. I'm just at a total loss as to why this is happening.

 

Originally Posted by: Quantum 

I was thinking that the social distancing measures and requests for people to stay at/work from home doesn't need to be 100%; it needs to be high enough to drive down the R0 value. Maybe enough people have got off the streets to influence the growth of cases?  Yes, we've all seen the pictures of crowded tube trains and packed tourist areas but I've noticed much emptier streets, people generally obeying the social distancing guidelines and a lot of places empty or with very few people inside.

A few more days of data will tell us whether we've really had a real effect.

Location: South Cambridgeshire

130 metres ASL

52.0N 0.1E



Gooner
23 March 2020 18:15:03

 

Yeh and it's not a one off. The data suggests we left the exponential growth phase about 4-5 days ago. This is not just noisy data, something is going on. But that doesn't mean we actually have left the exponential growth phase. I'm just at a total loss as to why this is happening.

 

Originally Posted by: Quantum 

So the bell curve and logarithmic scales can be put in the bin ?I know Darren ( Retron ) is expecting some big increases - not happening , so what is occurring ?

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus

Banbury

North Oxfordshire

378 feet A S L



Quantum
23 March 2020 18:16:21

 

I was thinking that the social distancing measures and requests for people to stay at/work from home doesn't need to be 100%; it needs to be high enough to drive down the R0 value. Maybe enough people have got off the streets to influence the growth of cases?  Yes, we've all seen the pictures of crowded tube trains and packed tourist areas but I've noticed much emptier streets, people generally obeying the social distancing guidelines and a lot of places empty or with very few people inside.

A few more days of data will tell us whether we've really had a real effect.

Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 

True, it doesn't need to be 100% but it has to be high. And why would we be seeing a flattening so much earlier than everywhere else in Europe?

 

25/26 (850hpa temp) 11 days snow/sleet falling

18/11 (-4) 19/11 (-6) 20/11 (-6) 01/01 (-7) 04/01 (-10) 10/01 (-7) 11/01 (-3) 30/01 (-1) 13/02 (-6) 15/02 (-4) 18/02 (-6)

24/25 10d

18/11 (-6) 19/11 (-6) 23/11 (-2) 22/12 (-5) 04/01 (-5) 05/01 (0)14/02 (0) 15/02 (0)12/03 (-6) 13/03 (-6)

23/24 8d

29/11 (-6) 30/11 (-6) 02/12 (-5) 03/12 (-5) 04/12 (-3) 16/01 (-3) 18/01 (-8)08/02 (-5)

22/23 7d

18/12 (-1)06/03 (-6) 08/03 (-8) 09/03 (-6) 10/03 (-8) 11/03 (-5) 14/03 (-6)

21/22 12d

xioni2
23 March 2020 18:17:23

Incidentally I was similarly skeptical when the same thing happened in Hubei in late January, but that actually was real; and the peak happened in Early february. My model suggests we will peak in 3-4 days time unless something changes.

If I had to bet, I'd say my model was wrong and we are still in the exponential growth phase. Only because I can't see how we could have escaped it this early on given that no one is socially distancing.

 

Originally Posted by: Quantum 

That's wrong obviously, there is already a lot of social distancing in the UK. I don't think we have peaked though, I expect all our numbers to deteriorate in the next few weeks.

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