The Weather Outlook

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johncs2016
01 March 2019 01:43:26

Given below, are the final winter statistics for Edinburgh, Gogarbank from all of the data which I have available which are:

Temperature (°C):

Lowest Min: -7.2 (on 1/2)
Highest Min: 9.6 (on 21/2)
Mean Min: 2.3
Min. Anomaly: +1.2

Lowest Max: 1.0 (on 31/1)
Highest Max: 16.4 (on 22/2)
Mean Max: 8.1
Max. Anomaly: +1.4

Ave. Temp.: 5.2
Temp. Anomaly: +1.3

Air Frosts: 27 (77.8% of 1981-2010 average)
Ice Days: 0

Rainfall (mm):

Total for Winter: 68.6 (35.4% of 1981/2010 average)
Wettest Day: 6.2 (on 8/2)
Rain Days: 19 (52.3% of 1981/2010 average)
Dry Days: 47

Month With Lowest Rainfall Amount January: 10.2 (13.4% of 1981/2010 average)
Month With Highest Rainfall Amount December: 37.8 (59.4% of 1981/2010 average)

Month With Fewest Rain Days January: 4 (29.4% of 1981/2010 average)
Month With Most Rain Days December: 8 (62.0% of 1981/2010 average)

Sunshine Totals (hrs):

Total For Winter: 215.6 (143.4% of 1981-2010 average)
Sunniest Day: 8.9 (on 27/2)
Sunless Days: 22

Dullest Month December: 48.0 (136.0% of 1981-2010 average)
Sunniest Month February: 102.5 (147.3% of 1981-2010 average)

Conclusion:

Overall, a very poor winter which has to be one of the worst and most boring so-called "winters" which I can ever remember.

It was very much warmer than average with January being the only month amongst that which resembled anything like a winter month with around average temperatures during that month.

The number of official air frosts was well below average and there was very little in the way of snowfall.

It was a very dry winter with all three winter months being substantially drier than average, and it was also a substantially sunnier than average with all three winter months being sunnier than average.

Overall, I will give that winter a rating of 1/10 and the only reason which I am awarding anything at all for that was due to the colder spell during the second half of January which went into the beginning of February as that did at least bring some frosts, and a little bit of snow.

 


The north of Edinburgh, usually always missing out on snow events which occur not just within the rest of Scotland or the UK, but also within the rest of Edinburgh.

Retron
01 March 2019 04:21:16

0/10. We had a winter?

(For me, the thing that defines winter is snow, as it's the only time of year it's possible to get crisp deep snow that hangs around for weeks, as opposed to a couple of hours on a Tuesday morning if you're lucky. This winter had no snow, therefore it scores a zero from me. The only thing in its favour was that at least there were no great gales, I don't even think gusts reached 60mph at any stage.)


Leysdown, north Kent
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
01 March 2019 07:37:06

1/10. Fewer frosts than usual (much of them from quick overnight dips during that February daytime warmth!) and snow only if you knew where to look for it.


War is God's way of teaching Americans geography - Ambrose Bierce

Chichester 12m asl

marco 79
01 March 2019 07:38:21
Apart from a few decent frosty mornings and 5 flakes of Snow here...absolute nothing..best thing of the winter was the record breaking warm spell which has just ended...

Ratings:

Dec 0/10

Jan 1/10

Feb 7/10....(if it cannot be cold then at least be decent by some merit)

Observers further South may disagree due to seeing more lying snow..


Home : Mid Leicestershire ...135m ASL
Solar Cycles
01 March 2019 08:30:28
But the seasonal models forecasted a winter nirvana. 😂😂😂
some faraway beach
01 March 2019 09:54:04

7/10

Since Dec. 2010 we have had only 4 snowfalls of any kind here: a bare sprinkling in early 2012; two of the most humongous and disruptive of my life on 1st and 19th March 2018; and an excellent and adequately disruptive one on 1st February 2019.

Put it this way: if a winter delivers two whole days of deep snow and sledging (and this one did), then I don't care about the rest of it. Compared with the rest of the winters this decade it deserves a 7 out of 10.


2 miles west of Taunton, 32 m asl, where "milder air moving in from the west" becomes SNOWMAGEDDON.

Well, two or three times a decade it does, anyway.

Saint Snow
01 March 2019 10:06:02

1/10

So much promise, pathetically little substance.

A relatively brief coldish spell that on more than one occasion had MBY in the sweetspot up to around 48 hours out, then managed to move the snow elsewhere. Even a unsually-dependable cold & unstable NW'ly missed the target here - delivering more snow to the south than it did here.

That's the second winter in a row where other parts of the UK (annoying, further south) have had good snow, whilst here has missed out, with 1-2cm falls that haven't stuck around.

 


Martin

Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)

A TWO addict since 14/12/01

"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."

Aneurin Bevan

KevBrads1
01 March 2019 12:50:20

Manchester Winter Index 

Formula:  10 x[(number of days with falling sleet/snow) +(number of days with lying snow at 9am) + (number of days with a minima at or below 0C)]  divided by the mean maximum 

2013-14: 7

1988-89: 20

2006-07: 21

1997-98: 25

1974-75: 26

1989-90: 26

2015-16: 28

1973-74: 30

1987-88: 37

2007-08: 37

2016-17: 37

1991-92: 40

1975-76: 41

1999-00: 42

1992-93: 43

2002-03: 44

1994-95: 45

2018-19: 45 

1998-99: 47

2004-05: 47

2011-12: 47

2001-02: 50

2003-04: 50

2005-06: 59

1979-80: 66

1996-97: 72

2000-01: 77

1993-94: 78

1983-84: 82

2014-15: 82

1982-83: 85

1977-78: 90

1980-81: 90

2017-18: 93

1986-87: 100

2012-13: 102

2008-09: 105

2010-11: 119

1990-91: 126

1995-96: 135

1984-85: 140

1976-77: 141

1981-82: 149

1985-86: 159

2009-10: 197

1978-79: 262

 

What upped the index was the quirk of 6 days of lying snow including 5 days on the trot. Most of the frosts and all snow episodes occurred in the second half of winter. 


MANCHESTER SUMMER INDEX for 2021: 238

Timelapses, old weather forecasts and natural phenomena videos can be seen on this site

http://www.youtube.com/channel/UCgrSD1BwFz2feWDTydhpEhQ/playlists

Gusty
01 March 2019 18:45:47

1/10...Brief, transitory stuff that fell on a couple of occasions but never settled. A high ground snow event 8 miles away inspired me to take a drive to witness it for a few minutes. Hence the reason for a 1 rather than a 0.

Long range and seasonal models are pony, met office 16-30 dayers worthless and FI is 4 days if its an easterly your after.

 


Steve - Folkestone, Kent

Current conditions from my Davis Vantage Vue

https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/IFOLKE11 

Join Kent Weather on Facebook.

https://www.facebook.com/stevewall69/ 



NMA
  • NMA
  • Advanced Member
01 March 2019 19:20:56

2/10 but I will give it an honorary 3 only because of a superb image showing the temporary snow cover over parts of Southern England in February. 

https://wvs.earthdata.na...RUE&ts=1549122058854

Thank you Michael in Old Aberdeen for that link.

We did have what seemed to be a lot of soft frosts in the autumn giving rise to hopes of a frostier, snowier even winter, hyped up in late December by some Meto tempting jam tomorrow full frontal easterly forecasts that always remained out of grasp.

At least it was possible to look at some decent snowfall online. For example around Tromso Harbour in Norway, Akureyri in Iceland an old stomping ground (though I hope someone can give the lens a wipe over the summer) and of course one of my favourites Mount Etna way to the south in the Med and with the bonus possibility of seeing fire and ice at the same time. 

So next Winter is the Big One?

Nick

 

 


Vale of the Great Dairies

South Dorset

Elevation 60m 197ft

Bolty
02 March 2019 00:22:59

8/10 for me.

As a mild winter fan, I can't really complain. The winter wasn't overly wet either, which was also a bonus. The standout for me was the incredible winter heat wave in late February.


Scott

Blackrod, Lancashire (4 miles south of Chorley) at 156m asl.

My weather station 

Tim A
02 March 2019 07:50:01
3/10. Poor for snow and cold generally. Only 3cm snow all winter although it stuck around for a few days. The other reason I have given it a 3 rather than lower is because during the early Feb snowfall there were actually several opportunities for snow with snow from the NW , E and the front for the south. So it was an interesting spell of weather for the UK regardless of how lucky/unlucky my back yard was.

Also an ice storm in December. A slight difference in air profile and that could have been a major snowfall.

On to better things next winter I hope.


Tim

NW Leeds

187m asl

 My PWS 

AJ*
  • AJ*
  • Advanced Member
02 March 2019 09:48:03

This winter was more snowy than average IMBY, since I did see snow on the ground, and on the evening that it snowed heavily in Sevenoaks I had the experience of driving at night through falling snow where the flakes lit by the headlights appear to diverge from a point somewhere in the middle of the view through the windscreen, and disappear from sight all around the car - quite mesmerising.  This doesn't happen very often, perhaps one year in five or more.

I wasn't disappointed, as the furthest extent of my model-watching is the T+120 fax chart. 

 

...

Long range and seasonal models are pony, met office 16-30 dayers worthless and FI is 4 days if its an easterly your after.

Originally Posted by: Gusty 

Perfect summary, Steve.

 

 

Angus


Angus; one of the Kent crew on TWO.

Tonbridge, 40m (131ft) asl

Maunder Minimum
02 March 2019 11:09:06

The winter of 2018-19 is best forgotten - the best virtual winter ever, but those day ten eye candy charts did not get even close to fruition.

We had zero days of lying snow here in the West Midlands this winter and not that many frosts.

Roll on the solar minimum winter of 2019-20.


New world order coming.
Gray-Wolf
02 March 2019 15:41:53

Roll on the solar minimum winter of 2019-20.

Originally Posted by: Maunder Minimum 

The Paper we saw pooh poohing the link between low solar and cold as mere 'coincidence , coupled with the returning numbers of SC 25 spots with a flux now sat around 70 and constant ( after being lower earlier in the winter?) makes me think we might be on the 'up and up' with SC 25 by next winter and no longer in the lowest of the low portion of the cycle?

 


Koyaanisqatsi

ko.yaa.nis.katsi (from the Hopi language), n. 1. crazy life. 2. life in turmoil. 3. life disintegrating. 4. life out of balance. 5. a state of life that calls for another way of living.

VIRESCIT VULNERE VIRTUS

JACKO4EVER
02 March 2019 16:26:42
1/10
Ally Pally Snowman
02 March 2019 16:45:57

1/10  . 1 inch of snow that lasted for 18 hrs is poor.  By far the most interesting weather of the Winter was the February heatwave.

 


Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Gusty
02 March 2019 17:43:31

Roll on the solar minimum winter of 2019-20.

Originally Posted by: Maunder Minimum 

I would suggest pitching expectation for a cold winter as a consequence of this as low. 


Steve - Folkestone, Kent

Current conditions from my Davis Vantage Vue

https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/IFOLKE11 

Join Kent Weather on Facebook.

https://www.facebook.com/stevewall69/ 



Snow Hoper
02 March 2019 17:49:04

Virtually Brilliant.

Realistically Utter Tripe.

 

Nuff said.


Going to war over religion is like killing each other to see who has the better imaginary friend.

Home : Mid Suffolk.

48m Asl

Whether Idle
02 March 2019 18:15:38

0/10. shite.


Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.
richardabdn
02 March 2019 18:18:11

9 days of lying snow

Max depth 4cm

21 air frosts

0 ice days and only one max below 2C

All adds up to a lame and pathetic winter. 1/10.

Not just the lack of wintry weather but any sort of weather. Can’t recall any decent sunrises or anything worth remembering.

All the worse for being the 6th dud winter in a row with 2013/14 and 2016/17 being even worse. 2014/15 and 2017/18 significantly better than the rest but still below par.

Once again NE Scotland has come off the worst seeing the least amount of snow relative to average and,as has been the case virtually every winter in the past eight years, we have had to see places that are climatologically far less snowy get decent falls while we get dregs. 

Looking at the winters with similar values on the Manchester Index and they were all substantially more wintry here than the tripe just gone, 1994/95 and 1998/99 in particular. Only exception was 2011/12 which was absolutely dire here but part of this decade which says it all 


Aberdeen: The only place that misses out on everything

2023 - The Year that's Constantly Worse than a Bad November

2024 - 2023 without the Good Bits

2025 - The Weekend Curse hell intensifies

noodle doodle
02 March 2019 19:28:31
3/10

2/10 for the wintry bit (last 2 weeks of january)

+1 for no house-wrecking winter storms or extreme rain

Norseman
02 March 2019 22:03:52

One out of ten for here. Deepest lying snow not much over 2cms. Did scrape three ice days but two had maxes of -0.1C so only just.

Main significant factor here has been how dry it has been as well as the very warm last fortnight.

Gray-Wolf
02 March 2019 23:31:03

I've been forced to do a 180 on my snow hopes for my locality since the issues 'the Beast' gave my partner in keeping her clients cared for in the valley last year,

Luckily she invented a 'snow shield' and so we only had the 'ice storm' ( not technically snow ) to deal with and the rest of the so called winter was pretty sound!


Koyaanisqatsi

ko.yaa.nis.katsi (from the Hopi language), n. 1. crazy life. 2. life in turmoil. 3. life disintegrating. 4. life out of balance. 5. a state of life that calls for another way of living.

VIRESCIT VULNERE VIRTUS

fairweather
03 March 2019 00:22:08

A poor winter for East Anglia. Max snow depth of about 1cm for a few hours. The worst thing about this winter was the way that many people, with an almost patronising dismissal of the doubters, kept on telling us that there was an SST that would propagate the cold in the next 3 to 30 days (choose your favourite) and that it was going to be a back loaded winter. Well it was - back loaded with heat. The Met Office outlooks were very poor and part of this nod/wink the cold is just round the corner scenario.

It's not the first winter though where we have said never believe cold forecasts that are more than a week away. We say it every Spring yet come next December everybody will be sucked in again by near useless models again!


S.Essex, 42m ASL

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