Here in Edinburgh, rainfall totals continue to be very low (for this month, that is 6.8 mm at Edinburgh Gogarbank and 8.8 mm at the botanic gardens in Edinburgh). For that reason, I have done some research into past years' rainfall in January to compare that with what is happening just now.

For that, I needed to gather some historical data, but I wasn't able to find anything for here in Edinburgh that is freely available, so I had to choose the closest location to me which was in a similar part of Scotland and which has a similar rainfall pattern. The closest match which I was able to come up with for that was Leuchars in Fife and I was able to get data for there from the Met Office historical data archives for every single year from 1957 onwards. From there, I was able to compile a list of the top 15 driest Januarys from 1957 onwards in order from the driest January upwards. The results of that are as follows:

Up until this point in time, the driest January since 1957 at Leuchars had occurred in 2006 with a total of 18.6 mm of rain. As at 11am this morning though, a total of just 6.2 mm of rain has been recorded there so far during this month which actually makes Leuchars very slightly drier than Edinburgh Gogarbank at this stage of the month.

That is only around a third of the lowest total since 1957 which has been recorded so far so that with just three days left of this month to go after today, it is clear that barring a sudden and very unexpected massive deluge during that period, this month will go down as the driest January at Leuchars since 1957. Given the large margin by which this is happening, this has to show that this month is therefore also likely to be the driest January on record there.

I therefore expect it to be a similar story here in Edinburgh as well. It would therefore be interesting to see if there are other members of this forum who have had a similar experience during this month and even if they haven't, I would welcome any memories of past Januarys which were really dry during previous years in their particular part of the world, and what memories there was of those periods.

I think it's quite incredible to get a January with less than 10mm of rain anywhere.

Be interesting to see the totals on Friday.

That might still not have happened if Thursday's weather system had moved right across the country in the manner in which it was originally forecast to. As per usual for this winter though, that has been increasingly shunted away further south by the models and there is nothing else there which could have the potential of bringing us any significant precipitation during this week (by that, I mean enough to bring about 4 mm or so of equivalent rainfall (if that falls as snow here) in this area).

This means that the southwards displacement of Thursday's low pressure system is probably now the final nail in the coffin as far as our chances of having more than 10 mm of rain during this month is concerned and it wouldn't even surprise me if what we have just now, ends up being this month's actual final total since even that stuff coming from the west on around Tuesday looks set to break up as it pushes towards the east of Scotland.

Looking at it nationally, I'm quite surprised to see some areas have seen such a dry month. I suppose the Greater Manchester area really can be a real oddball when it comes to rainfall, compared with the rest of the country.

I'd imagine some calculation is made for this on official sites but even an official heated gauge can't catch all snow when it is blowing sideways..

Wetter than last year here, after the repulsive weekend more than doubled our total, but still well below average. Precipitation has certainly dropped in January over the last few decades and that is entirely due to the lack of snowfall.

A clear link between mild/dry and cold/ wet/snowy. Or at least there used to be when cold weather came from the north or east. Nowadays with it frequently coming from the west, which was unheard of prior to this decade, we are seeing notably dry Januaries that aren’t even that mild.

The driest ever January here, 1989, was also the mildest. 13mm was recorded at Dyce and just 4mm at Fyvie Castle. An extreme example of the rain shadow effect as there was 855mm at Glen Shiel during that month.

According to the Monthly Weather Report, January 1953 which was also a very mild month, was the driest at Edinburgh since 1787. Here’s the totals I found from the Monthly Weather Report:

Blackford Hill: 8mm
Botanic Gardens: 8mm
Davidson’s Mains: 9mm
Liberton: 12mm
Turnhouse: 9mm

https://digital.nmla.metoffice.gov.uk/digitalFile_7a51d068-ea1b-42cb-b8b0-b4d18c667777/ 

According to that then, this month won't quite be the driest January on record at the botanic gardens in Edinburgh since a total of 8.8 mm of rain has been recorded there so far during this month as at 6pm this evening which is slightly more than the 8 mm which you have quoted for back in 1953. However, this month's total for there so far isn't all that more than what you have quoted and therefore has to come a very close second.

At Edinburgh Gogarbank though, a total of just 6.8 mm of rain has been recorded during this month so far as at 6pm this evening which is not only less than what has been recorded so far at the botanic gardens in Edinburgh, but also less than any of the totals which you have quoted. This therefore, surely makes this month a candidate for the driest January on record at Edinburgh Gogarbank.

I've bounced this up to the top simply because some of these reports indicate an interesting situation for some places. East Anglia in particular.

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/water-situation-local-area-reports

If you have time and are interested, these reports are a useful way for assessing and understanding water catchments.

I was on the river yesterday and a family went by and asked if the river was always as fast flowing as this. Actually it is low for the time of year I said which surprised them. Groundwater is the main source of potable water here and from what I hear it is still depleted for the time of year and of some concern to Wessex Water and especially Bristol Water.

Wessex started 2019 with ‘below normal’ rainfall for January, at 48% LTA. There was a noticeable divide across the Area with the north being drier than the south. River flows ranged from ‘normal’ in the south of the Area down to ‘exceptionally low’ in the north-east, reflecting the rainfall and also the support of the chalk aquifer. Soil moisture deficit is close to the LTA at 2mm. Groundwater levels at the majority of sites have experienced a slowing in recharge, or a decrease in levels notably in the chalkaquifer in the south, and over half the sites are ‘below normal’ or lower. Total reservoir storage is slightly lower than this time last year.

Nick