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I can only say from past experience of watching it, they never take into account the subsequent shifts that we can see on the 12z runs. I would suggest it has to be written by late afternoon, and you wouldn't base it on the GFS/UKMO 12zs if you didn't have the ECM by then.
Originally Posted by: Shropshire
Fair shout , but I will pay more attention to future ones and compare
Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L
18z holding steady with little change in the short-term. Tuesday looks potentially snowy still.
Originally Posted by: SJV
Yes, I didn't think there would be much change, the 0z runs tomorrow are the big ones.
Anyway, the second best GFS Op cycle run holds firm at T+132.
Nr. Easingwold, North Yorkshire
30m asl
Yes I'm not overly interested in what the pub run has to offer post 144 or so given the 12z ens spread so all eyes to the UKMO, GFS and ECM 00z outputs in the morning. ECM obviously the one to watch given it's 'wobble' or whatever you want to call it.
Decent 18z
"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - former special adviser to the President
Nice little upgrade from the 18z looks like little snowy low in the north sea at 156h
Better get it fixed Geoff you really are a miserable bloke at times the question is is it cold or very cold outlook.
this is the first potential cold spell that I have paid no attention to. I’m rather pleased I haven’t invested any time in it yet as it does look very uncertain. Brexit is far more interesting! And my heating is playing up so I dont mind it going Pete tong
Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East
Snow across the UK
A cracking run from the 18z
Pub run is as drunk as me! Wow
It's not that different from the 12z Mr Beast so be encouraged my friend. We need a strong 00z output in the morning now
It has verified better than the 00z and 12z recently, so I wouldn't dismiss it. The 6z is regularly the worst verifying run on the GFS cycle.
18z is an upgrade for the east and south east... but overall a downgrade.
Temps are seemingly less severe and most western areas turn drier quicker. Hopefully features will develop. However as we found in the last easterly a lot pf western britian remains dry.
All this said... the HP to the north loads broader and stronger on this run.
Weather station:
https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=IWIRRAL24#history
Originally Posted by: Gooner
Yes, this run is quicker with the ridging than the 12z. But we know it's like someone at the back chipping in with 'yeah I'm still with you mate' after there has been a big voice of dissent. The crunch is tomorrow.
No it isn’t really though is it?
The runs could take a step back at 00z tomorrow and then improve again at 12z.
Its that fickle.
GFS is consistent with this
And why is the crunch tomorrow lol
How times do people say " the next run is crucial " , " the key day is blah blah blah "
No dig at you its just funny , its no more important than Sunday or Mondays IMO
Originally Posted by: Arcus
Understood. I didn't want to dismiss it because it is the 18z, rather that I'm more interested in the short-term variations given the ECM wobble. Of course, I've gone and looked ahead at the 18z post 144 anyway and I'm liking what I'm seeing!
Originally Posted by: Joe Bloggs
They could. but we have a critical juncture between around 90 and 114 hours, and that comes closer to resolution tomorrow. What the GFS shows at days 6 onwards is irrelevant if that link up between heights is not achieved in the said timeframe.
Stuck in the cold
Until we get agreement from the big guns across the board then every next run is crucial
So it stands to reason given ECM's output this evening... the morning output is...... crucial!
Your mate Mr Murr sausager said hello I see
Gues ive gotta get used to static shocks off everything around the house again.
Felt sorry for my dog last yr. Every time i went to stroke her she shocked me 😞
Some downgrade (not)!
Guernsey
We are now firmly in rollercoaster terratory. GFS shows what coldies want but ECM has an equal chance of having the correct solution. And all this still 48 hrs away from the US cyclogenesis that will dictate what happens.
Its fun though!