Hello folks,

Here's the weather forecast for the week ahead (video and traditional Written versions)

https://www.gavsweathervids.com/weather-forecast-for-the-week-ahead.php

High pressure building over Scandinavia. Becoming colder. Cold and wet mid-week and then a lot of uncertainty...

Will have the CFS Six month-ahead coming up @ GWv later.

Tomorrow it's the Twelfth Winter 2018/19 update + EC and Meteo France seasonal model update as well.

Myself and Quantum are also planning a live chat tomorrow between 5-7pm on Q's YT channel and GWV - Links will be posted here before the chat and we'll try and answer everyone's questions.

Thanks as ever for your support and to Brian and the Mods for making it happen! 

EDIT: Here's the Twelfth Winter 2018/19 Update: https://www.gavsweathervids.com/winter-2018-19-weather-forecast.php

Sure is getting interesting Gavin P. Thanks very much.

Sure IS getting interesting - our knackered asbestos roof slates come off on Monday and then re-roofing begins!

Roger

Thank you Gavin. Cardigan is on already. Heating is set on the thermostat. 

Cheers as always, Mr G of the P.

Thanks Gavin. 

Always an intelligent and very considered review of prospects, especially of value this week, with such uncertainty in the medium term.

^^^^

Thanks guys! 

Here's the Twelfth Winter 2018/19 Update:

https://www.gavsweathervids.com/winter-2018-19-weather-forecast.php

Looking at solar activity, ENSO, Atlantic and Pacific SST anomalies, stratospheric analysis, Eurasian snow cover and a special focus on the QBO this week...

Will place on the Winter updates page with a written summary this evening or possibly tomorrow morning (as I've got a very busy day ahead of me today) 

Cheers Gav

Had to watch that in instalments 

^^^^^^

There's certainly quite a lot of info to take on board isn't there Gooner? 

Here's the latest EC and Meteo France seasonal model update covering the forecast period from December 2018 to May 2019

https://www.gavsweathervids.com/ecmwf-meteo-france-seasonal-model-forecasts.php

Cheers Gav , I'm backing the French 

^^^^

OK so we're all ready to go with the live chat in ten minutes. Use this thread for asking any questions. See you in ten

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=331Mrn4aMVU

Have added with twelfth Winter 2018/19 update to the Winter updates page + A written summary for anyone who can't watch the video;

https://www.gavsweathervids.com/winter-2018-19-weather-forecast.php

Just one more Winter update (and one more seasonal model round-up) to go and then it's time for the forecast...

Thanks, Gavin. A very interesting read.

"We then look at Winters that have done the East to West QBO transition through those Winters. Those Winters are: 1977/1978, 1984/1985, 1998/1999 and 2001/2002. Overall these winter show December is favoured to be mild and dry with high pressure over and to the south and east of the UK. January looks very unsettled and mild with low pressure over the top of the UK. February and March also looks unsettled with low pressure over the UK bringing mild and wet weather. The Winters themselves look mild, wet and unsettled - Keep in mid two of these Winters (77/78 and 84/85) do have some very cold weather but the other two (98/99 and 01/02) are generally mild."

It seems to me that you're a bit underplaying the coldness and snowiness of 1977-8 and 1984-5 here, especially the latter winter, which had one memorable cold and snowy spell in January and another in February. It would probably be in my top ten winters of the last 60 years or so for here in Surrey, and I'd be more than happy if it was to be repeated. :)