Hello folks,

Here's the Ninth Winter 2018/19 Update;

https://www.gavsweathervids.com/winter-2018-19-weather-forecast.php

Picks up exactly where last weeks eighth update left off with much more on El Nino and Winter... We also look at SST's solar activity Siberian snow over and more...

Will add to Winter updates page later with a written summary for anyone who can't watch the video later.

If you didn't see yesterday's Thoughts you can check out the week ahead forecast here:

https://www.gavsweathervids.com/weather-forecast-for-the-week-ahead.php

Thanks for your support as always. 

Great stuff Gavin. Thanks.

Thank You Gavin for your updates here and Facebook.  

^^^^

Thanks guys! 

Have added the Ninth Winter 2018/19 Update to the Winter updates page + A written summary for anyone who can't watch the video;

https://www.gavsweathervids.com/winter-2018-19-weather-forecast.php

The analogues look encouraging for a cold blocked winter the concern for me is the strengthening QBO and whether or not it overrides the other favourable signals.

Thanks Gav

I don't know what to make of this years prospects 

Thanks Gavin. Very interesting, as always.

You look at the amount of snow cover over Siberia and Scandinavia, but is the amount of Arctic ice cover a factor that you consider?

Well, from looking at all the evidence, it looks as though this will be a front loaded backend winter, which will be exceptionally cold, except when it is ridiculously mild, with wet and also with dry periods and with day time when we will have daylight and night time when it will be dark.

^^^^^

Thanks guys! 

SC - yes we have very conflicting signals again this year. QBO switching from east to west of one of the signals that favours a milder Winter... Though we were in a similar position in late 2010 when we had the December To Remember of course...

Gooner - You and me both! 

jhall - Arctic sea ice loss and extent is something we look at in the first updates. If you have a look at Winter updates one through to three you'll see we talk about it quite extensively. When the re-freeze starts we tend not to focus on it as much.

Beng - I'd check out the ninth update is you can as it's one of the more entertaining updates this year I think! 

Maunder - You want to do the forecast for me and I'll take the rest of the year off? 

All in favor of a colder blocked winter........