The Weather Outlook

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Quantum
  • Quantum
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
20 September 2018 23:07:04

I can't believe I'm starting this thread, however I saw this

And did a double take. Good chance of some snow due to evaporational cooling, the winds do seem a bit high but if the LP is a little weaker than forecast we could see some of the rain turning to snow on its northern edge. For late september this would be a first. Obviously any snow is almost certainly going to be restricted to higher ground. Nevertheless its one to watch!

 

 


25/26 (850hpa temp) 11 days snow/sleet falling

18/11 (-4) 19/11 (-6) 20/11 (-6) 01/01 (-7) 04/01 (-10) 10/01 (-7) 11/01 (-3) 30/01 (-1) 13/02 (-6) 15/02 (-4) 18/02 (-6)

24/25 10d

18/11 (-6) 19/11 (-6) 23/11 (-2) 22/12 (-5) 04/01 (-5) 05/01 (0)14/02 (0) 15/02 (0)12/03 (-6) 13/03 (-6)

23/24 8d

29/11 (-6) 30/11 (-6) 02/12 (-5) 03/12 (-5) 04/12 (-3) 16/01 (-3) 18/01 (-8)08/02 (-5)

22/23 7d

18/12 (-1)06/03 (-6) 08/03 (-8) 09/03 (-6) 10/03 (-8) 11/03 (-5) 14/03 (-6)

21/22 12d

Jiries
21 September 2018 05:41:20

Quite a lot of blue to dark blue that early this year up northern areas and seeing Iceland covered in -10C uppers for September also very early for that too.  If the trend continue I am sure -10C uppers would reach us by November at some point and Europe go freezing most of the time so we could easily tap in to it anytime too.

Heavy Weather 2013
21 September 2018 07:46:29

Quite a lot of blue to dark blue that early this year up northern areas and seeing Iceland covered in -10C uppers for September also very early for that too.  If the trend continue I am sure -10C uppers would reach us by November at some point and Europe go freezing most of the time so we could easily tap in to it anytime too.

Originally Posted by: Jiries 

 

That sounds like a ramp Jiries.

But your right, I was just thinking this morning that its good to see an early appearance of some cooler charts. I saw snow at the end of October in 2008 - so anything is possible.


Mark

Beckton, E London

Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.

Brian Gaze
21 September 2018 08:21:39

I can't believe I'm starting this thread, however I saw this

And did a double take. Good chance of some snow due to evaporational cooling, the winds do seem a bit high but if the LP is a little weaker than forecast we could see some of the rain turning to snow on its northern edge. For late september this would be a first. Obviously any snow is almost certainly going to be restricted to higher ground. Nevertheless its one to watch!

 

 

Originally Posted by: Quantum 

I flagged this specific event up several days ago on Twitter or FB. Also mentioned the possibility weeks ago due to the unusual synoptic we have seen since the SSW. 


Brian Gaze

Berkhamsted

TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 

"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan

marco 79
21 September 2018 08:48:49
Also interesting are the gathering snow rows on GEFS for Northern Scotland first week of Oct...Inverness is up to 8 on some days during that week...
Home : Mid Leicestershire ...135m ASL
Russwirral
21 September 2018 08:52:53

 

I flagged this specific event up several days ago on Twitter or FB. Also mentioned the possibility weeks ago due to the unusual synoptic we have seen since the SSW. 

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

 

does anyone have any historic data on snowfall events in September?  Im struggling to find any.


doctormog
21 September 2018 09:15:39
I’d be very surprised to see snow fall from that feature. It will certainly be chilly though.

Into October there are as Marco suggests a few teasing glimpses of snow potential but in weather terms that is eons away.

There will be snow on the mountaintops up here over the next few days but that is not anything noteworthy for the time of year.


Saint Snow
21 September 2018 09:35:31

BBC Weather forecast last night mentioned the possibility of sleetiness on the Northern Pennines as the system moves through and pulls down cold air from the north.

 

 


Martin

Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)

A TWO addict since 14/12/01

"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."

Aneurin Bevan

Rob K
21 September 2018 09:39:19

BBC Weather forecast last night mentioned the possibility of sleetiness on the Northern Pennines as the system moves through and pulls down cold air from the north.

 

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 

A couple of little snow blobs showed up on the models for this morning. I don't know if there was any.


Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

doctormog
21 September 2018 09:41:32

It is 8°C and raining here currently so I suspect there is snow falling on the peaks up here now.

The precipitation type radar also suggests wintriness in the mountains currently.


jhall
21 September 2018 17:36:27

 

 does anyone have any historic data on snowfall events in September?  Im struggling to find any.

Originally Posted by: Russwirral 

 

The most notable September snowfall event within at least the last 100 years was almost certainly that in 1919. From Trevor Harley's excellent site:

"A month with great variation in weather, from a memorable hot spell to a memorable cold one, all within just over a week. It was another month with a maximum of 32.2C CET (at lucky Raunds in Northants. again, on the 11th - what is it with Raunds in September?). The 11th is one of the latest dates in the twentieth century when 90F+ (32.2C) was attained (see 1926 below for the latest). This was also the hottest day of the year. Nottingham reached 29.4C on the 11th but only 13.9 on the 12th following a shift in wind direction. There was even snow cover on low ground from northern England north and on higher ground in Wales and the southwest as well as high ground in the Midlands on the night of the 19-20th. The snow was 2" deep at Princetown in Dartmoor. Snow cover lasted on Snowdon for a week. This is probably the earliest snowfall date."

http://www.trevorharley.com/weather_web_pages/british_weather_in_septemb.htm

And here's a reanalysis chart:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/reanalysis.php?map=1&model=noaa&var=1&jaar=1919&maand=09&dag=21&uur=0000&h=0&tr=360&nmaps=24#mapref


Cranleigh, Surrey
Retron
21 September 2018 17:43:58

This morning's ECM has an area of snow for mid-Wales on Sunday morning:

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/england/snow-accumulated/20180923-1200z.html

Just over a centimetre on the ground, too:

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/england/snow-depth/20180923-1200z.html

(Can't believe I'm posting ECM snow charts in September, but there you go!)

 


Leysdown, north Kent
Brian Gaze
21 September 2018 17:55:43

Arpege 12z showing snow on quite a few frames. The first one is here:

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/arpege.aspx?run=na&charthour=19&chartname=ukpreciptype&chartregion=uk&charttag=Precip%20type

 

 


Brian Gaze

Berkhamsted

TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 

"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan

Col
  • Col
  • Advanced Member
21 September 2018 19:04:58

 

 

The most notable September snowfall event within at least the last 100 years was almost certainly that in 1919. From Trevor Harley's excellent site:

"A month with great variation in weather, from a memorable hot spell to a memorable cold one, all within just over a week. It was another month with a maximum of 32.2C CET (at lucky Raunds in Northants. again, on the 11th - what is it with Raunds in September?). The 11th is one of the latest dates in the twentieth century when 90F+ (32.2C) was attained (see 1926 below for the latest). This was also the hottest day of the year. Nottingham reached 29.4C on the 11th but only 13.9 on the 12th following a shift in wind direction. There was even snow cover on low ground from northern England north and on higher ground in Wales and the southwest as well as high ground in the Midlands on the night of the 19-20th. The snow was 2" deep at Princetown in Dartmoor. Snow cover lasted on Snowdon for a week. This is probably the earliest snowfall date."

http://www.trevorharley.com/weather_web_pages/british_weather_in_septemb.htm

And here's a reanalysis chart:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/reanalysis.php?map=1&model=noaa&var=1&jaar=1919&maand=09&dag=21&uur=0000&h=0&tr=360&nmaps=24#mapref

Originally Posted by: jhall 

Seems roughly equivalent to the June 2nd 1975 event. I guess these two events mark the earliest and latest significant snowfalls at relatively low levels in this country.

 


Col

Bolton, Lancashire

160m asl

Snow videos:

http://www.youtube.com/channel/UC3QvmL4UWBmHFMKWiwYm_gg

LeedsLad123
21 September 2018 19:08:00
I'll eat my hat if there is snow falling to low levels this weekend.
Whitkirk, Leeds - 85m ASL.
Gusty
21 September 2018 22:28:36

This has to be the ultimate of snow ramping threads ever 


Steve - Folkestone, Kent

Current conditions from my Davis Vantage Vue

https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/IFOLKE11 

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Jiries
22 September 2018 06:09:29

This has to be the ultimate of snow ramping threads ever 

Originally Posted by: Gusty 

After a long hot summer and this Autumn seem to be a short one so that why we all feel ready to ramp that early and we hope to get something good early this year like November onward and frequents, not one off for whole winter.  Also going to live in Lower Stoke, Kent from 24th Sept made me more excited to see snow as I always know Kent fare better on any snow events.

Russwirral
22 September 2018 22:12:15
Lost of reports of snow over scottish mountains today on some mountaineering facebook groups im part of.

So wasnt tooo far off the mark


idj20
22 September 2018 23:16:19

 

After a long hot summer and this Autumn seem to be a short one so that why we all feel ready to ramp that early and we hope to get something good early this year like November onward and frequents, not one off for whole winter.  Also going to live in Lower Stoke, Kent from 24th Sept made me more excited to see snow as I always know Kent fare better on any snow events.

Originally Posted by: Jiries 






Home location: Folkestone Harbour.
nsrobins
23 September 2018 09:06:33
Any snow reports from central Wales today?

It appears EC among others were a little too keen on the snow potential this weekend.


Neil

Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)

Stormchaser, Member TORRO

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