Hello folks,

Here's the week ahead forecast video and written Thoughts

https://www.gavsweathervids.com/weather-forecast-for-the-week-ahead.php

Quite an unsettled week ahead with the focus particularly on the remains of "Helene" - That said for the south and south-east the prolonged dry spell goes on...

Have got the third Winter 2018/19 Update coming up @ GWV tomorrow so watch out for that! 

Thanks as ever for your support and to Brian and his Mods for making it happen! 

EDIT: Not included the Third Winter 2018/19 Update: https://www.gavsweathervids.com/winter-2018-19-weather-forecast.php

Cheers Gavin - Thanks. What an interesting week ahead.

Those synoptics which you have showed us in today's second video seem to explain quite well, the reason why we've still not been getting all that much rain here in the east of Scotland despite the fact that we're now in a more changeable pattern here in Scotland overall. Although August was our wettest summer month, even that wasn't a particularly wet month here and after that, we have then had quite a dry start to this month.

Nevertheless, we did get quite a lot of rain here yesterday and although this month is still running a little bit drier than average here even after that, it is now no longer looking quite as dry here as a result, as what it was looking just a few days ago. As you said in that video though, this increase in rainfall over the last day or so IMBY could be due to the jet stream gaining more and more strength as we go further into the autumn, and I thought that your video explained that really well.

Thank you for your thoughts Gavin. Helene might not dump so much here in North East Somerset.. Hopefully. 

Cheers as always Mr P. Seems Summer is hanging on at this end.

^^^^

Thanks guys! 

John congrats for breaking the dry spell. Suspect you'll have more rain in the days ahead... Just a few hints with this evenings model output that even down here in the parched Midlands and south-east we might be about to start seeing some much needed rain towards the end of the week?

We certainly need it!

Thanks for the lovely comments Re. the second video for today. 

Yes Gav

I was only halfway through watching your second video when I posted my last comment on this thread completely unaware of course, that is my own part of the world here in Edinburgh which you would then cover for the latest ensemble output. From that, I did notice they the immediate outlook does look rather wet for here (and indeed, we have even had a bit of rain tonight).

However, I also noticed that this only lasts for a short period of time before the outlook becomes a lot drier once again. I'm therefore wondering if ex-Hurricane Helene might have something to with that because if it is mostly tracking northwards more than it is eastwards, this could be enough to promote the creation of a large blocking high just to our east which could then actually go on to weaken the jet stream and make it that bit drier.

Thanks John! I do like to move the ensemble's around to try and cover all parts of the UK! People see to like that as well! 

OK here we go:

Here's the third Winter 2018/19 update video;

https://www.gavsweathervids.com/winter-2018-19-weather-forecast.php

looking at ENSO, Atlantic SST's 10hpa zonal winds, arctic sea ice, Siberian snow cover, 2018 hurricane activity and winters that follow the driest Summers on record...

Will add to winter updates pages later with a written summary for anyone who can watch the video later.

Have added the third Winter 2018/19 update to the Winter updates page + A written summary for anyone who can't watch the video;

https://www.gavsweathervids.com/winter-2018-19-weather-forecast.php

Great work!