Hello folks,

Here's the weather forecast for the week ahead (video version and traditional written Thoughts)

https://www.gavsweathervids.com/weather-forecast-for-the-week-ahead.php

Rather changeable with quite a lot of rain in the north but the south stays mostly dry for another week. Temperatures "up and down"

Will have the second Winter 2018/19 update for you @ GWV tomorrow - And among other things we'll be attempting to answer whether hot and dry Summers lead to cold or mild Winters.

Thanks as ever for your support and to Brian and the Mods for making it happen! 

Edit: Here's the second Winter 2018/19 update:

https://www.gavsweathervids.com/winter-2018-19-weather-forecast.php

Thanks for the update Gavin .. Like the changes for time of year and the pressure ..

Thanks ART! 

Now, a lot has been talked about in the forecasts and the model output about the south of England clinging onto dry and warm weather for the most part. However, I must clarify a couple of things about the rainfall patterns here in the east of Scotland just to show that it's not just the south of England that's been drier than what it should be.

Here in line with everywhere else in the UK, we had a very dry summer. August was a then a relatively poor month and yet even at that, the our rainfall during August was actually no more than average overall (my own data in the other threads show one station to be slightly wetter than average with another being slightly drier than average so when you balance that out, it all comes out at around average). Furthermore, my own observations for this month show that this month has been quite a lot drier than average so far as well with only about half of our average rainfall at this stage of the month.

The fact that we had such a dry summer means that we have obviously built up a large rainfall deficit over that period and yet, nothing has happened since then to suggest that we have even started to make up that deficit. Now, the synoptics may well be pointing towards an unsettled pattern of weather but in my book, we need to be seeing much wetter weather than what we are seeing just now in order for this to be seen as a proper, unsettled pattern of weather and for that to happen, the rainfall needs to be consistently coming out as wetter than average.

The forecast charts in both of today's videos do point towards what looks like an unsettled pattern of weather. Yet, the GFS 10 days trends keep on consistently showing the trend to be drier than average on the vast majority of occasions as was shown yet again in today's second video. Because of that, I cannot possibly see that as being "unsettled" in any way in this part of the world and so, until I start to see those trends going consistently wetter than average with that also happening in terms of what my own data for my local stations is starting to show, there is no way that I will be referring to the current weather pattern as "unsettled" in this part of the world, in any way.

^^^^^^^^

Thanks guys! 

Sorry to hear this weeks forecast isn't very accurate for your region John. It's a tricky time at the moment as the weather patterns seem to be taking an increasingly "changeable" hue to them but as you say in a lot of places we're struggling to get much rain from these weather systems.

Will try and do better in future. 

Here's today's video update (another big one)

Second Winter 2018/19 Update

https://www.gavsweathervids.com/winter-2018-19-weather-forecast.php

Focusing on among other things, solar activity, ENSO, Siberian snow cover and more... We're also trying to answer whether hot Summers are followed by cold Winters.

Will add this to the winter updates and forecast page with a written summary for anyone who can't watch the video later.

Have added the second Winter 2018/19 update to the Winter updates and forecast + A written summary for anyone who can't watch the video;

https://www.gavsweathervids.com/winter-2018-19-weather-forecast.php

I starting to think as well, that the upturn which we are now seeing in the Atlantic Hurricane season might be good news for us this winter, as that could increase our chances of getting a cold winter.

Thanks Gav

A good read 

^^^^

Thanks guys! 

John, I do think the ramp up in the hurricane season could be beneficial towards increasing the blocking signal... If (big if) it continues...

Thanks Marcus! 

This months EC seasonal model update has deffo set the cat among the pigeons SC.