The Weather Outlook

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Bertwhistle
08 September 2018 06:47:44

I see from p74 of this interesting 'cpmpendium' (paper):

https://www.earth-syst-sci-data.net/9/63/2017/essd-9-63-2017.pdf

that the 2013 NH SSW event was on 7th January. The cold weather in NW Europe was obviously of note in February and March, but I recall it starting at the end of the second week of January (so barely a week later) with a big snow event on 18th. Isn't that very soon after the event? Talk seems to be of several weeks, or a month, after the event.

Also- the same document helpfully lists dates of significant events, but I can't find information regarding the scale of the events at 10hpa, or the intensity & duration of associated sea level effects. Any thoughts or knowledge?

 


Bertie, Itchen Valley.

Retire while you can still press the 'retire now' button.

David M Porter
08 September 2018 09:05:24

IIRC, the major SSW event that led to the Beast from the East spell at the end of Feb/start of March this year happened sometime around the middle of February, so there was a gap of about a fortnight between the SSW occurring and the effects of it on our weather becoming apparent.


Lenzie, Glasgow

"A body of men holding themselves accountable to nobody ought not to be trusted by anybody." – Thomas Paine

some faraway beach
08 September 2018 09:21:04

The cold weather of Jan. 2013 presumably happened independently of the SSW.

The interesting table in that link is the one on page 66. A quick glance emphasizes the number of really severe winters where any cold triggered by an SSW occurred long after the memorable stuff was already underway.

1963, for instance, is supposed to have seen a month of snow and ice before the SSW at the end of January; and it's the deep snow of Dec. 2009 and Jan. 2010 which sticks in the memory more than any further cold shots caused by the February 2010 SSW.

I'm not in any way trying undermine the value of SSWs if you're looking for cold weather,. But they do seem to represent a final throw of the dice, if you like, rather than an essential element for a memorable winter.


2 miles west of Taunton, 32 m asl, where "milder air moving in from the west" becomes SNOWMAGEDDON.

Well, two or three times a decade it does, anyway.

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