The Weather Outlook

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Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
29 June 2018 10:53:34

This morning I’m officially moving SE London on to Grasscon 3, after 3 weeks at 2 and 2.5.

3 = all cut grass yellow, uncut grass remains green as do some shady patches under trees.

The green bits you can see are weeds and clover.

The weird exception, as always, is hilly fields park which remains lush green as it did in 2003, 2006 and (almost) 2013.

Originally Posted by: TimS 

  Grasscon 3 here too!  For some reason the local authority has spent the past week cutting all our verges and hedgerows, leaving everywhere yellow like your photo.  I suppose in such dry conditions it makes sense not to have long grass that can burn and aid fire spread. 


Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.

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Stormchaser
29 June 2018 11:29:42

The South isn’t that dry, relatively although some heathland areas are getting there. If you click on the left menu in the link and zoom in you can see regional soil moisture and soil moisture anomalies (caveat that limestone soils always show up as wetter than impermeable granite and metamorphic rocks because lower soil / upper bedrock can hold water).

The South is drying out but the NW and West are particularly dry.

http://edo.jrc.ec.europa.eu/edov2/php/index.php?id=1111

Even after 2 weeks of no rain most of France remains drenched. But look at the Nordics and Baltic states...

Originally Posted by: TimS 

Surprised to be at around 3 according to that; the top few cm of soil here has turned to fine dust and below that it's as hard as rocks.

How much depth of soil do they measure across? I think the standard is 10 cm?

Regardless, it seems there must still be a reasonable amount of water within reach of all but the most shallow-rooted of plants, for now anyway. A steady drain with each passing day of course.

 

Come to think of it, the timestamp for the latest map is 25th, and the 26th-28th have been breezier but still very warm and sunny days, so the actual conditions have likely changed significantly even since then.

That site is a great find though, thanks for sharing 


If you have any problems or queries relating to TWO you can Email [email protected]

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2025's Homeland Extremes:

T-Max: 32.0°C 12th Aug | T-Min: -5.4°C 4th Jan | Wettest Day: 31.8 mm 18th Dec | Ice Days: None

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TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member
29 June 2018 11:35:05
I think they measure top metre or even top 2m of soil. That’s why limestone areas always show up wetter, because the subsoil and bedrock itself contains water.
Brockley, South East London 30m asl
Stormchaser
29 June 2018 12:58:51

I think they measure top metre or even top 2m of soil. That’s why limestone areas always show up wetter, because the subsoil and bedrock itself contains water.

Originally Posted by: TimS 

Wow okay, that's interesting, thanks. I wonder how it's done; I do a lot of walking and have never seen anyone going around poking deep holes in the terrain - designated private sites I suppose?

Sure does explain those measurements being higher than I would have imagined based on what I'm seeing near the surface.


If you have any problems or queries relating to TWO you can Email [email protected]

https://twitter.com/peacockreports 

2025's Homeland Extremes:

T-Max: 32.0°C 12th Aug | T-Min: -5.4°C 4th Jan | Wettest Day: 31.8 mm 18th Dec | Ice Days: None

Keep Calm and Forecast On

bledur
29 June 2018 19:47:58

 

Surprised to be at around 3 according to that; the top few cm of soil here has turned to fine dust and below that it's as hard as rocks.

How much depth of soil do they measure across? I think the standard is 10 cm?

Regardless, it seems there must still be a reasonable amount of water within reach of all but the most shallow-rooted of plants, for now anyway. A steady drain with each passing day of course.

 

Come to think of it, the timestamp for the latest map is 25th, and the 26th-28th have been breezier but still very warm and sunny days, so the actual conditions have likely changed significantly even since then.

That site is a great find though, thanks for sharing 

Originally Posted by: Stormchaser 

 It is very dry on top here and the sun is scorching crops, but putting in fence posts , the ground is still quite moist 10- 12 inches down and at 3 foot plus is fairly damp. I have known it far drier deep down, but the virtually zero rain in June and high temps have had a severe scorching effect. Even in June 1976 there was more rain here , but the subsoil was far drier due to the dry previous year. I have not seen any trees round here showing drought stress yet although another dry 2 weeks might alter that.

Arcus
29 June 2018 20:02:31
I'm really loving this weather. Warm days in the 25c to 28c range, but lovely cool early mornings where you can open up the windows and let the house temperature reduce before the solar onslaught later on. Reminds me very much of the winter climate in Pacific Mexico. Best Xmas and New Year I've every had on holiday there in 2007 -hot days, warm evenings and cool mornings, and not too humid.
Ben,

Nr. Easingwold, North Yorkshire

30m asl

Chunky Pea
29 June 2018 20:08:38

Could see a thin but distinguishable layer of smoke in the northern skies here very early this morning which could well have been from the Oldham moor fire. 


Patrick,

East Galway, Ireland.

LeedsLad123
29 June 2018 20:18:43

I'm really loving this weather. Warm days in the 25c to 28c range, but lovely cool early mornings where you can open up the windows and let the house temperature reduce before the solar onslaught later on. Reminds me very much of the winter climate in Pacific Mexico. Best Xmas and New Year I've every had on holiday there in 2007 -hot days, warm evenings and cool mornings, and not too humid.

Originally Posted by: Arcus 

Though not too warm in the evening here - it's down to 17C now. Not cold but cool enough for a light jacket. If the humidity was higher then the temperature wouldn't fall so quickly in the evening.

But yes, stunning - truly stunning. A max of 28C and once again higher than forecast (no surprises there). Deep blue sky. No complaints really. 


Whitkirk, Leeds - 85m ASL.
Arcus
29 June 2018 21:21:30

 

Though not too warm in the evening here - it's down to 17C now. Not cold but cool enough for a light jacket. If the humidity was higher then the temperature wouldn't fall so quickly in the evening.

But yes, stunning - truly stunning. A max of 28C and once again higher than forecast (no surprises there). Deep blue sky. No complaints really. 

Originally Posted by: LeedsLad123 

Very much cooler here this evening - 16c rather than the 21c we were having well into the evening in the past few days, but that's down to the easterly picking up through the late afternoon and evening.


Ben,

Nr. Easingwold, North Yorkshire

30m asl

KevBrads1
01 July 2018 06:41:22
Looking at the charts, I think some places are going to have their best first half to summer since 1976
MANCHESTER SUMMER INDEX for 2021: 238

Timelapses, old weather forecasts and natural phenomena videos can be seen on this site

http://www.youtube.com/channel/UCgrSD1BwFz2feWDTydhpEhQ/playlists

Jake
  • Jake
  • Advanced Member
01 July 2018 09:15:23

I'm really loving this weather. Warm days in the 25c to 28c range, but lovely cool early mornings where you can open up the windows and let the house temperature reduce before the solar onslaught later on. Reminds me very much of the winter climate in Pacific Mexico. Best Xmas and New Year I've every had on holiday there in 2007 -hot days, warm evenings and cool mornings, and not too humid.

Originally Posted by: Arcus 

 

I agree I prefer this then three days of 35C If I recall some of the better summers had this weeks of 25-28c


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Rob K
01 July 2018 10:44:49

 

 

I agree I prefer this then three days of 35C If I recall some of the better summers had this weeks of 25-28c

Originally Posted by: Jake 

Yes the weather has been just about perfect. I like the mid-30s spells for their extreme value, but high 20s with a breeze is much more useable. We have lost the crystal clear blue skies we had yesterday as the humid air moves in though.


Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

picturesareme
01 July 2018 10:58:23
I was earlier using local stations for my temps as id yet to venture outside, but when I did it was hot.

30.5C in the shade before midday is impressive, and the warmest (by this time) for a fair few year.

Temp is still in 30C bracket and there looks to be aome clear blue sky approaching now so I wonder can we hit 32C? 😁

I think so.

Bolty
  • Bolty
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
01 July 2018 12:12:17
Given the near-consistent warmth and dryness we've had through May and June, I think this is the summer where we have a much better chance of seeing the all-time record go. All it will take is for a well timed and potent plume to set up over the next five weeks or so...

After all, in 2015 we had a below average June and we broke the July record in a 2-day plume, and that was right at the beginning of the month as well. A similar intensity one late July/early August and a new record would be a serious consideration.


Scott

Blackrod, Lancashire (4 miles south of Chorley) at 156m asl.

My weather station 

Jake
  • Jake
  • Advanced Member
01 July 2018 17:33:51

 

Yes the weather has been just about perfect. I like the mid-30s spells for their extreme value, but high 20s with a breeze is much more useable. We have lost the crystal clear blue skies we had yesterday as the humid air moves in though.

Originally Posted by: Rob K 

yes today has been more humid in Manchester (Higher Blackely) as well. More cloud too. Im hoping it comtinues right through to end of August,


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TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member
01 July 2018 17:49:27
Today was the first time in this spell it’s felt properly (ie uncomfortably) hot, and I get the sense the nights will now be a lot more muggy than in June. Like we’ve entered a new month and a new type of weather.
Brockley, South East London 30m asl
roadrunnerajn
01 July 2018 18:07:16
Well today a did a cycling sportive over Dartmoor.... From 8am till 2pm we had torrential rain and distance thunder....definitely more than rhe 30% chance of a shower forecast...
Germoe, part of the breakaway Celtic Republic. 80m asl
xioni2
01 July 2018 18:31:29

Today was the first time in this spell it’s felt properly (ie uncomfortably) hot, and I get the sense the nights will now be a lot more muggy than in June. Like we’ve entered a new month and a new type of weather.

Originally Posted by: TimS 

Actually starting from tomorrow night, most of them should be fresher again, but probably not as cool/fresh as last week. 

Amazingly the EC ensemble mean for 8-15 July has an upper level pattern very similar to that of last week.

Summer wave trains can be very hard to dissolve/shift!

 

Saint Snow
01 July 2018 19:50:56

I agree I prefer this then three days of 35C If I recall some of the better summers had this weeks of 25-28c

Originally Posted by: Jake 

 

Yeah, absolutely. Prolonged warm/very warm, sunny & dry beats hands down relatively brief plumes.

We were in Southern Cumbria today, and it was glorious. Just perfect. A tonic for the soul (and capped off by a superb meal!)

 


Martin

Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)

A TWO addict since 14/12/01

"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."

Aneurin Bevan

Stormchaser
01 July 2018 20:31:45

It sure has felt like some overbearing power has decided 'its July now, better get rid of that uncharacteristic low humidity and cool nights' .

Typing this at almost half 9 pm with the air temp still in the mid-20s out there under largely cloudy skies. A few spots of rain coming down but the appreciable amounts passed a little west of here. Not sure what's out in the Channel now will make it to the UK before the E flow sends it west; it's already become slower-moving during the past few hours.

Luckily, the working week ahead doesn't look quite as humid thanks to the draw of air from the NE/E tomorrow through Tuesday (but this may considerably limit the useful shower coverage). Could be sticky again next weekend, though, as tropical maritime air arrives in association with the Azores High regaining control.

Classic 'good'/'poor' high summer conditions (delete as appropriate to your stance).


If you have any problems or queries relating to TWO you can Email [email protected]

https://twitter.com/peacockreports 

2025's Homeland Extremes:

T-Max: 32.0°C 12th Aug | T-Min: -5.4°C 4th Jan | Wettest Day: 31.8 mm 18th Dec | Ice Days: None

Keep Calm and Forecast On

snowish
01 July 2018 20:59:45

Just run two boat trips from reedley marina at Burnley I must say that the hazy cloud did help with temps not so over burdening on said skipper. Let me tell you peeps do not know how all this fine weather is happening. long may it continue

 


Paul S, Burnley
KevBrads1
02 July 2018 10:28:44

Manchester summer indices.
1976 301
1995 298
1983 278
1955 277
1911 274
1984 271
1959 269
1975 268
1949 267
1989 262
2013 260 
1947 255
1933 251
1901 249
1921 249
2003 247
1925 246
2006 246
1996 245

2018 (up to 1st July) 244


1935 243 
2014 242
1994 240

Really climbing the table. It could plateau or drop over the next two months but it looks like continuing to climb at least to mid July. 


MANCHESTER SUMMER INDEX for 2021: 238

Timelapses, old weather forecasts and natural phenomena videos can be seen on this site

http://www.youtube.com/channel/UCgrSD1BwFz2feWDTydhpEhQ/playlists

Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
02 July 2018 10:58:58

There was mention on another thread of this possibly being the best summer of our lives and it may well turn out to be.  It would of course depend on:

How old you are and how many notable summers you’ve experienced.

Where you live and how the weather behaves in your neck of the woods.

What your preferred summer weather type is. 


Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.

Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition.

Crepuscular Ray
02 July 2018 14:39:08
Caz

I'm 60 so 1976 still by far the best for me for sheer length of sun and heat.

I now live in Edinburgh which doesn't do spectacular summers. I experienced high heat in Notts in the mid 90's and mid 00's. Also experienced my highest UK temp of 34.7 C in south Notts 3/8/90

I prefer hot and sunny 🌞


Jerry

Edinburgh, in the frost hollow below Blackford Hill

golfingmad
02 July 2018 15:01:19

There was mention on another thread of this possibly being the best summer of our lives and it may well turn out to be.  It would of course depend on:

How old you are and how many notable summers you’ve experienced.

Where you live and how the weather behaves in your neck of the woods.

What your preferred summer weather type is. 

Originally Posted by: Caz 

 

Certainly from a purely statistical viewpoint, the CET summer series always gains a lot of attention, simply because it is our longest running temperature series. However, it does have its drawbacks, for obvious reasons.

Also, the number of notable summers experienced (dependent as you say on age) is another very important point. I doubt whether many members on here experienced from a memorable age (or even adult age) the summer of 1976. It's not much good going on about how hot it was, how parched the landscape was, the introduction of hosepipe bans, and the appointment of a Minister for Drought, when either you weren't alive or too young to remember it. As an experienced member from all the hot summers from 1976, there is no doubt that for me 1976 stands way ahead of all the other notable recent summers, but if you didn't experience it, you probably won't believe it.

With regard to summer 2018, I think we are have a good chance of a really notable summer, simply because of the good start in June, and the signal for warmth from the models until at least the middle of July. On this point I did post a brief summary of where we stand this summer, and a brief analysis of the Top Five summers from the CET series, in the June CET thread. I thought I'd copy it here, as it may be more relevant perhaps to the summer 2018 chat thread.

So I thought I'd take a look at the 'Top Five' summers in the CET series, and see where we stand with the current position of the June CET figure of 16.1, and the projected warmth forecast for July (courtesy of GW's figures provided in the July thread). This is JFF, nothing more. Here is a breakdown by summer months of the Top Five CET summers:

 

1) 1976  17.77 (June 17.0, July 18.7, August 17.6)

2) 1826   17.60 (17.3, 17.9, 17.6)

3) 1995   17.37 (14.3, 18.6, 19.2)

4) 2003   17.33 (16.1, 17.6, 18.3)

5) 2006   17.23 (15.9, 19.7,16.1)

x) 2018       x    (June 16.1, July GW 18.8 or CET projected 19.6, August ???)

Standout points of summers since 1976 are:

1) 1976 is consistently very warm throughout the summer, with the notable hot spell 20th June to 9th July. This is the spell everyone remembers and is the standout event of the 1976 summer. 

2) 1995 was remarkable in that the June figure of 14.3 is only joint 185th in the monthly CET series. The summer recovered in dramatic fashion right at the end of June, July at 18.6C was 6th in the monthly series, and ended with the hottest CET August on record with 19.2C

3) 2003 was again consistently very warm through the summer, starting like June 2018 with 16.1C but building in strength through the summer, with July of 17.6C being joint 36th in the monthly series, and August finishing strongly at joint 5th in the series with 18.3C.

4) 2006 is remarkable in that it started with June of 15.9C which is only joint 29th in the monthly series but produced the hottest July and the hottest month ever recorded with 19.7C. It then finished on 16.1C in August which is only joint 105th in the monthly series.

What of 2018? June has started well with 16.1C which is joint 18th with six other summers including 2003. If we take GW's July figure of 18.8C,  it would only take an August figure of 16.8C to produce a summer mean total of 17.23C leading to a joint 5th position with 2006. If the figure were just 16.9C this would result in a figure of 17.26C and sole 5th position. To beat the summer of 1976 an August figure of 18.5C would be needed to achieve an overall figure of 17.8C. Obviously if GWs CET projected figure for July of 19.6C were to occur, then it would take a relatively poor August of 15.9C or less to keep 2018 out of the summer Top Five.

Either way, given the projections for July 2018 and current standings in the models, we should experience a very good summer overall. Indeed, all the building blocks are in place for a Top Five CET summer series finish. It would only take consistent warmth through July and August, with perhaps a heatwave during the middle of July or even sometime in August, for 2018 to challenge 1976 for the warmest summer in the CET summer series since 1659. 

 


Cambridge and Winchmore Hill London N21.

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