The 12z GEFS is interesting from my point of view - the relatively cooler Saturday the 12z op threw up has good support, with the entire suite shifting a couple of degrees colder. The >20C minimas for London have vanished too, unsurprisingly (I did mention earlier how rare they are, so I'm not surprised to see them go).

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?x=306&y=141&run=12&ville=Londres&runpara=0&type=3&ext=1

Still plenty of time for change, of course.

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Up for the 18z, as usual, and it’s more of the same but marginally cooler max temps again. The Biscay trough is looking roughly similar to the 12z as at Thursday pm.

EDIT: a teeny bit better going into the weekend (cooler than 12z but low pressure further away) but still very similar. 

EDIT 2: by Sunday a lot better: cooler uppers, but much more settled. Going to sleep now.

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Correct thread this time , hope you're right Moomin

 

Warm to hot ECM 850s 10c - 16c for the next 10 days. 30c should happen somewhere at some point. Cloud could be an issue though as high isn't in perfect position .

 

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We seem to be arriving at some kind of model consensus for next week, across all 4 and most ensembles, with high pressure in charge until Thursday, uppers starting to cool from midweek and a squeeze from North and South by the weekend. Bit of rain pushing up from South but mainly staying in France, then high pressure trying to edge in from the west and a battle until the end between ridging and Atlantic depressions.

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We seem to be arriving at some kind of model consensus for next week, across all 4 and most ensembles, with high pressure in charge until Thursday, uppers starting to cool from midweek and a squeeze from North and South by the weekend. Bit of rain pushing up from South but mainly staying in France, then high pressure trying to edge in from the west and a battle until the end between ridging and Atlantic depressions.

Good summary Tim, all in all its a cracking summery output.

Taking a look through the GFS, UKMO and GEM 12zs. While GFS has been pretty consistent in moving towards the cool down from Thursday onwards, and UKMO / ECM both also seem to have moved that way, there is still an unusually big spread in the ENS from that date. Only 4 days out you’d usually expect much more clustering than this. GEM continues to go hot unlike the others, too.

The inflection seems to be about how much pressure rebuilds over and to the West of the U.K. on Friday after getting squeezed midweek.

Next weekend remains in the balance.

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12z GEFS mean at t+192 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSAVGEU12_192_1.png

As it stands this evening, we are staring at warm, dry and settled weather, as far as the eye can see. 

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12z GEFS mean at t+192 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSAVGEU12_192_1.png

As it stands this evening, we are staring at warm, dry and settled weather, as far as the eye can see. 

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I’m hoping it doesn’t break up for the Silverstone weekend.  My son and his girlfriend are camping there for five days and it’ll be her first time in a tent!  

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GFS and GEM are looking horrible on Friday with extensive low cloud for much of England. Hopefully they are overestimating the NE wind.

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No complaints.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSAVGEU06_180_1.png

 

 

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I’m hoping it doesn’t break up for the Silverstone weekend.  My son and his girlfriend are camping there for five days and it’ll be her first time in a tent!  

A tents situation. We should canvas opinion on here but hopefully the models will get it pegged by then. 

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More of the same this morning - although ECM is a storm lover’s dream! 

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I’m hoping it doesn’t break up for the Silverstone weekend.  My son and his girlfriend are camping there for five days and it’ll be her first time in a tent!  

 Maybe should have proof read that..

More of the same this morning - although ECM is a storm lover’s dream! 

ECM is vile. Just hope it doesn’t transpire like that.

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 Maybe should have proof read that..

 

LOL!

 

 

PS - huddled in a tent whilst rain patters on it is part of the charm of camping, is it not? As long as your tent's waterproof, that is.

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ECMWF going for more unsettled in a week or so.

ECMWF going for more unsettled in a week or so.

ECM seems to have flipped quite dramatically from what it showed yesterday, altough it doesn't have much support from GFS this morning.

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This is certainly OK.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSAVGEU06_180_1.png

 

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Furnace heat for the south this weekend according to the GFS 06z:

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