Today's update of EC ens extended has a high pressure signal for all of July...

Its intensity is weaker for H2 July, but that I guess is more a feature of mean reverting. 

It would be interesting if ECM looked a little further ahead as GFS has a cool and wet Atlantic system coming in just after the end of the ECM range i.e. tue/Wed 9/10th - finals week at Wimbledon, of course!

High pressure persists. This is turning into an incredible summer for everyone ! 

Indeed, Steve.

It's only the end of June of course and we still have most of the summer ahead of us, but given what has happened thus far, this summer to my mind anyway has more of a feel of 1995 about it than 2003 or even 2006; the settled weather seems to have been more persistent up to now than it was here in the latter two summers.

Amazing and so it continues.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/UKMOPEU12_144_1.png

This definitely has a 1995 feel to things. Its about time the UK as a whole gets to enjoy it. With high pressure centred to the north this easterly feed is keeping us distinctly fresher down here. Typically 21-25c so far but with ample sunshine. The heat and humidity of recent summers has been focussed on the SE in recent summers. This summers pattern is more than welcome and long may it continue. 

What a terrible GFS 06z; Goodwood FoS is blighted by frequent thunderstorms .

Serious hat on - those adjustments for Tuesday-Saturday are not surprising given the recent signals from the EPS and the way tropical forcing is evolving. Maybe a little fortunate with the exact placement of the ridge but we'll see I suppose!

This is proving to be one extremely stubborn area of high pressure. I think we can safely say that the weather is set fair for this weekend and for pretty much all of next week! What a summer this is turning into!

06z GFS is just bonkers. 

Great stuff and heading towards a classic.

Hi SC, as we live just down the road from Goodwood and our garden is looking like a desert, I say ...bring it on!

Think it's a blocking high i.e. it never moves!

Omega block 

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/learning/atmosphere/high-and-low-pressure/blocks

Next week looks a little less “pristine” at times, but certainly nothing especially unsettled. 

Tuesday could see a shallow disturbance affecting NE Scotland (although not much of a spoiler given the North Sea clag!) Maybe a little cooler and cloudier for the likes of the Highlands? http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/UKMOPEU12_96_1.png

Troughing does try to push in from the SW towards the end of next week, although it doesn’t look to be very successful. Accumulated rainfall maps on the GFS suggests that western parts are the most likely areas to receive some thunderstorms. Many parts staying completely dry for the foreseeable. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU12_168_18.png

By next weekend high pressure looks like it will push in yet again. 

Yes Joe, ECM backs up the general trend thus far. Some potential thundery stuff in the W/SW weekend and during the week, but the trend of the reinforcement of the blocked conditions over the UK with the cut-off low stagnating and receding to the south. No real humid feed beyond the incursion from the south over the weekend, so more of the same looks like being on cards away from aforementioned W/SW areas, with strong sunshine and dry air next week.

Even stronger (and quite strong in absolute terms) signal from the today's 12z EC ens for high pressure during 8-15 July.

As we all know, last summer was a poor one in this part of the world where we were only ever seeing possible windows for high pressure to be in charge during the foreseeable future. The time which I picked to go down there at that time was roughly at the same time of the month when I will be doing so this time, and I remember the models indicating at the time when this would be the most likely time for high pressure to be in charge.

As it turned out, the models couldn't have been any more wrong when that trip came up because instead of that being the best time to go there in terms of the weather, it ended up being the worst possible as the weekend when I down there in particular, ended up being a complete washout with quite a lot of heavy rain.

This year, everything seems to be different because regardless as how far I'm looking ahead just now on the latest models, all I'm seeing is more or less, the same old pattern which we have been seeing for quite a while with high pressure virtually constantly in charge. This in turn makes me wonder whether or not, there is really any point in me even bothering to look at the latest model runs just now because I already know that they will be telling me that high pressure will be in charge with no change in the weather pattern, regardless of when I decided to make that trip.

Hopefully, that won't make me have egg on my chin with that resulting in the weather turning anyway when my trip comes up with me getting a lot of rain yet again when I'm there. However, it does make the world of model watching rather boring if the models are only ever pointing to us staying in the same old weather pattern all the time even if that is resulting in that decent summer which most of us want.

You'll probably do well that week because I'm out of the country from the 7th to 21st. That'll likely mean a switch to anticyclonic southerlies, westerlies and south westerlies for Eastern Scotland. Wouldn't be surprised if there's a record run of 25C maxes. Then I return on the 22nd and so, no doubt, will the easterlies.

Those poor firefighting folk in Manchester sure have a job on their hands if this goes on...

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png 

Green blob or red blob? GFS0z vs ECM for Mon 9th July.

GFS forecasting a much cooler and more unsettled outlook in the medium range.

GFS 00z op was one of the cooler and wetter solutions this morning.