My back yard Annual comes in 11.5c.    Difference  5.8c.   With Cumulus.... 

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Back Yard annual is now 10.9c....

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Estimate it at about 10.36 at the moment, only by using anomaly for the record year to work out the latest average- bad maths I suspect; I know GW can correct this. With a couple of foggy days, might just get down to 10.35 which puts me 0.06 off the mark. Not bad considering most of my monthly estimates were rubbish- I guess my too-highs and too- ,lows just balanced each other out!

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Back yard Annual is now 11.0c   Difference 5.3c. By Cumulus.

 

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Estimate it at about 10.36 at the moment, only by using anomaly for the record year to work out the latest average- bad maths I suspect; I know GW can correct this. With a couple of foggy days, might just get down to 10.35 which puts me 0.06 off the mark. Not bad considering most of my monthly estimates were rubbish- I guess my too-highs and too- ,lows just balanced each other out!

Wow....

Just seen your post..

That puts 4 of us in with a shout.

Gez M 10.39, me at 10.37, Wallow at 10.35 (favourite) and yourself at 10.29.

All to play for then.

Could it be my fist placing ever?

Grandad

 

 

Wow....

Just seen your post..

That puts 4 of us in with a shout.

Gez M 10.39, me at 10.37, Wallow at 10.35 (favourite) and yourself at 10.29.

All to play for then.

Could it be my fist placing ever?

Grandad

 

Yes, although today has turned out a tad warmer than expected in some places- you might be on the button Grandad.

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Right sorry I am now catching up. Sadly it wasn't reindeer that were keeping me busy this month. I wish it had been - would have been a lot less stressful. Anyway here are the figures for November. A very chilly month indeed. But we are still a fair bit above average for the year as a whole.

 

Another warm December although nowhere near as warm as last year.

The annual CET finishes at 10.33C which is virtually the same as last year.

EDIT - just noticed that the Met O have rounded it to 10.34C so Essan was spot on.

 

In our competition the winner is Essan who was closest with 10.34C.

 

Congratulations to Essan. My near miss was down to over estimating some months in equal measure to underestimating others; in other words, rubbish predictions both ways!

Thanks again GW. No pressure- but hope you run it again this year?

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Thanks - yes this competition is running again for 2017 but will not have a dedicated thread. It will be covered within the normal monthly CET thread and we will carry forward the stats and charts each month into the new thread.

So if you want to take part in the 2017 annual CET competition please post your prediction into the January CET thread.

Thanks GW


Ironically, I was in with a good shout of winning the monthly comp ...... but only if Dec was a cold month, in which case I wouldnt have won the annual comp!

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A very warm start to the year overall for the first third. Things seem to be turning a bit cooler of late though.

 

My own back yard on Cumulus shows  9.0c.  Difference  7.3c.  So far....  

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After a very warm May we are now just about 1C above the 1981-2010 mean

YTD as of today we are running at +1.65 above 1961-90 which means the rest of the year needs to be 1.28 to get a record. A warm summer would put us in a pretty strong position for a record year and my 11.0C prediction. Let's see how the rest of June pans out.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html 

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YTD as of today we are running at +1.65 above 1961-90 which means the rest of the year needs to be 1.28 to get a record. A warm summer would put us in a pretty strong position for a record year and my 11.0C prediction. Let's see how the rest of June pans out.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html

Up to today we're at +1.81 so the RRR for the rest of the year is now +1.1C. Let's hope we don't lose any quick wickets in July and August. This is where the middle order needs to take control.

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Still needing 1.10C anomaly for the annual record. Mix of cool weather a couple of weeks ago and hot weather the last few days evening out.

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Another very warm month in June. CET anomaly almost identical to May

Another very warm month in June. CET anomaly almost identical to May

Thanks GW. Do you (or anybody) know why the WMO still uses the 1961-1990 mean to benchmark against with regards anomalies? This is posted on one of the MetO HadCET pages:

"Note that anomalies (and normals) quoted here are w.r.t. the period 1961-1990. This is the current standard period of reference for climatological data as recommended by the WMO (World Met. Organisation)."

 

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