Now ain't that the truth! Cold and snow are invariably moderated or vanish from the charts altogether, whereas a blowtorch in mid-Winter invariably verifies (but never in Summer).

I reckon our seasons are 6 months out of alignment - I seem to recall lots of northern blocking in the early summer when we didn't want it...

Wow - interesting tool. Thanks for this

Well if you were hoping for  the  ECM 12z to break the monotony, don't bother looking as it's another horror show for coldies; worse than the GFS 12z and that's saying  something

When you  look at the many mild Winters of the past they are usually attributable to a persistent Azores High or Euro High. What we've  had so far this Winter, and what it looks like we're going to get in the forseeable future, is a both. With the current set up it's really difficult to see how the pattern is going to change. There is no sustainable energy going South from the Atlantic depressions which can attack the Euro High and it is not under any kind of threat whatsoever. The only way out may be a stall in the Atlantic train which is long enough to allow a ridge from the Azores or Euro High to build North. It would seem however that any lull is weeks away at least, based on the current model projections.

I think you will struggle mate in Sauze to be honest. the resort is not exactly known for high snowfalls. In my opinion Sauze needs a low pressure to come in from the South (med) to produce good snowfall and form current set up I cannot see that happening.

Heres something quite interesting; lets look at the surface temp profiles in the arctic and northern latitudes.

This is Today 2015

Then we have 2014, which interestingly has an extremely similar profile.

While these are similar 2013 is very different

On the face of it I'd be quite optimistic about such a chart, the cold has spread much further south and really there is very little north-south temp gradient at all with a much warmer arctic. However this turned out to be a double-edged sword. The polar vortex was weak in 2013 as a naive glance at this profile suggests, however the UK was unlucky and on the wrong side of the nevertheless very wavy jet. Also, perhaps more directly the very cold air in america caused strong cyclogenesis which scuppered our chances of cold.

Now lets go back to 2012, a mixed year with a notable wintry spell but nothing all that memorable.

2012 is odd in that it has a cold arctic like 2015 or 2014 but very notably a cold Eurasia too and unlike the mild years of 2013 and 2014; I suspect this is important. 

2011 has a farily warm arctic and cold Eurasia, rather like a far less impressive version of 2012.

Finally 2010:

Very cold Eurasia is the most notable; tbh it seems to me that the temp profiles that have a cold Eurasia but do not have a correspondingly cold America are the ones which bring cold winters. I don't really think the odds are in our favour.

That is my own feeling as well tbh.

I have seen in past winters when we endured a long spell of zonality that a spell of HP can act as something of a transition period from a mild & wet pattern to something a bit more wintry. November 2009 was mild and wet throughout with some pretty bad flooding in Cumbria late in the month, very akin to that of a week or so ago. That pattern continued in the early days of December. However, after that the atlantic calmed down somewhat and HP took over. I think it may have been a ridge from the Azores High which came to our rescue, not sure though. We then had a week or so of calm, dry, frosty & sometimes foggy weather here before the wintry spell began.

Not saying that anything of that sort will happen this winter, but as you say it is one possible way out of the current pattern. Here's hoping!

I totally agree. Claiming that this anomalous warmth on this side of the world this winter so far is down to El Nino - without any shred of evidence whatsoever given, is curious to say the least.

FWIW, the top 5 warmest December's on record in Northern Ireland and corresponding Nino conditions

1988: Strongly negative

1934: Neutral

1953: Weakly positive

1974: Weakly negative

1921: Weakly negative

Going by this data alone, I for one can't see the current El Nino having much of an influence on the current conditions at all.

Well METO have been pretty clear in their monthly contingency forecasts that the strong El Nino is an influence, contributing to a NAO + circulation which they expect to last at least until mid January.They have also pointed out that strong El Nino winters tend to have cold  Februaries so that is what i'm waiting for.
Meanwhile within the confines of a mild zonal NAO+ circulation we night get the odd cold snap before then but I woudn't bet to much on it!

Tbh I don't think any such claims are statistically significant; I've looked at the journal articles on this. El nino does have a statistically significant impact on the weather in the US, but from the UK any effect is too small to differentiate it from mere chance. Also claiming an El nino results in a cold feburary and a warm winter is oddly specific given this abject lack of evidence. It may be that El nino does influence our weather, particularly a strong one like we have now; but I honestly do not think the research lends enough credence to this claim to make it confidently. 

Meanwhile the GFS 18z pulls a Russian/Arctic High from nowhere to stall the NE progression of the Atlantic train. It may not stop it but it should mean colder zonality for the UK which would otherwise been the case.

I guess the long and short of it is that in this country, we don't necessarily need a strong El Nino event for there to be a particularly mild winter or a very mild spell during a given winter. That said, if there is a strong El Nino going on as there is at present, it increases the chances of such mild periods.

May increase the risk of mild periods. I still think this is a very tenuous claim. I will say though, on El nino alone I would marginally favour a mild over cold winter; but its got to be a pretty small factor. I think we should be more concerned about a westerly based QBO!

Yes been watching this and appeared halfway along the reliable. GFS picking up on something, or gone on the next run?

How much of an influence though? No doubt some indirect, watered down effects down the line that cannot, or at least have not been pin pointed.

As for the Met Office claims that EL Nino winters lead to colder Febs, this is based on nothing more than a small statistical correlation based on an extremely very small sample size, and as they say in the statistical world, correlation does not equate to causation. And either way, the chances of cold weather developing in February increase anyway, regardless of what the NINO state, due to the fact that the winter jet tends to be at its weakest (on average) during this month.

Yes exactly. I think this cannot be emphasized enough. Even in terms of Long range forecasts (where arguably every factor is small) El Nino would be close to the bottom of my pile. Yes I think this is likely to be a mild winter, but the main reason for that is a westerly based QBO. But even then it by no means precludes a cold winter, long range forecasts always have to be probabilistic not deterministic.

The 18z last night played with the idea of an Arctic High to a much lesser extent, but the 00z, 6z and 12z dropped it. Just out to FI and the High is still there although I would expect in the low resolution part of the run that the Atlantic will blow it away. Probably gone completely in the 00z tomorrow morning but at least it has created a wee bit of interest.

This is actually pretty interesting

Is anyone going to deny a subtle, yet substantial weakening of the polar vortex? In particular the formation of a siberian high late on in FI which actually is in the process of splitting the polar vortex in two and sending a small part towards china. 

Although the UK isn’t directly impacted, most climate changes in America do have a ‘knock on’ effect for us

True but the knock on effect is diminishingly smaller the more 'degrees of separation' you are from El Nino. In this case the knock on effect is not noticeable above the 'background noise'. 

It was repeated somewhat by another model earlier this evening so interesting

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/jma.php?ech=156&mode=1

I thought some research shows that south western Europe becomes very wet during autumn and into winter. This may be due to a kink in the Atlantic jet, which may be a knock on effect from the USA having a strong southerly tracking jet.

There is evidence to support that our winters can be drier than normal but temperatures can vary, 2009/10 winter saw very cold temperatures yet 2006/2007 was rather mild. 2009/10 winter occurred during a solar minimum, which could explain the colder theme that year. With the solar maximum being a lot lower than usual this time round, maybe the colder and drier theme for winter may return this year.

Thanks thats very useful