The Weather Outlook

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Gavin D
Friday, March 30, 2018 4:37:04 PM
Into next weekend

Wet

Some snow on northern hills

Generally cool

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/43599429 

Gavin D
Saturday, March 31, 2018 12:26:33 PM
Met office

UK Outlook for Thursday 5 Apr 2018 to Saturday 14 Apr 2018:

The latter half of next week may be largely dry and bright in the far north, but it will be cold with some wintry showers at times. Elsewhere across the UK it will be unsettled with outbreaks of rain and hill snow for some, and it will be windy at times with a risk of gales. There will be some frost overnight in the north, but temperatures may be closer to average in the south. The following week will probably begin fairly unsettled, with strong winds and heavy rainfall possible for many. As we head towards mid-April, there is an increased chance of drier and more settled conditions, with a risk of fog in places overnight and frost in the north, but warmer days at times.

UK Outlook for Sunday 15 Apr 2018 to Sunday 29 Apr 2018:

The start of this period will probably see generally more settled conditions across the UK, with southern parts seeing the best of the dry and sunny weather, although there will be a risk of fog and possible frost overnight, mainly in the north. There is a lot of uncertainty in the forecast detail going into the latter half of April, but there will probably be a mixture of changeable or showery spells interspersed with drier and more settled periods. Temperatures overall are likely to remain below average although an increasing number of warmer days can still be expected. There are likely to be overnight frosts in the more settled spells and these should become restricted to the north of the UK as we head into late April.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast 

tallyho_83
Saturday, March 31, 2018 2:20:24 PM
Re the snow (marginal rain/sleet for most) yesterday in Devon:

https://www.devonlive.com/news/devon-news/met-office-radar-shows-snow-1401907 


Home Location - Vixen Tor Close, Okehampton, Devon (221m ASL)

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Sean Moon

Magical Moon

www.magical-moon.com

Gavin D
Saturday, March 31, 2018 7:59:05 PM
Into next weekend

Often wet

Some snow on northern hills

Generally cool

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/43608017 

Gavin D
Sunday, April 1, 2018 12:10:12 PM
Met office

UK Outlook for Friday 6 Apr 2018 to Sunday 15 Apr 2018:

There is low confidence in the forecast through the period. There are signals that it will probably be largely dry for southeastern areas, but outbreaks of rain are more likely to spread north and east across many other areas, along with strong winds. Snow could also feature over northern hills. After the weekend signals remain mixed, but the most likely scenario is that it will be changeable with showers or longer spells of rain; keeping a risk of some hill snow in the north. Temperatures probably near average; rather warm at times in central and southeastern areas, but colder generally in the north with night frosts at times. It is most likely that it will be drier and more settled towards mid-April.

UK Outlook for Monday 16 Apr 2018 to Monday 30 Apr 2018:

There is very low confidence from mid-April onwards. Generally drier, more settled conditions could be dominant at first, then most likely a mixture of changeable or showery spells interspersed with drier periods. While temperatures are more likely to remain below average an increased number of warm days are likely, especially in any settled periods. Night frosts are likely to become more restricted to northern areas by the end of the period.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast 

Gavin D
Sunday, April 1, 2018 1:15:22 PM
Week ahead forecast on BBC One

Milder

Rain or showers

Good sunny spells

Drier Thursday

Gavin D
Sunday, April 1, 2018 1:30:55 PM

BBC weather forecast: Three shock ALERTS issued with snow to SUBMERGE UK on Easter Monday

THE Met Office has issued three weather warnings for severe snowfall on Easter Monday, with up to 10cm of snowfall set to pummel Britain on the bank holiday which threatens to cause havoc on the country's roads. Britain is facing three shock weather warnings for snowfall tomorrow, with significant rainfall set to turn into heavy snow as temperatures plunge below freezing.

https://www.express.co.uk/news/weather/940023/BBC-weather-forecast-Easter-Monday-snow-warnings-UK

idj20
Sunday, April 1, 2018 1:45:17 PM

BBC weather forecast: Three shock ALERTS issued with snow to SUBMERGE UK on Easter Monday

THE Met Office has issued three weather warnings for severe snowfall on Easter Monday, with up to 10cm of snowfall set to pummel Britain on the bank holiday which threatens to cause havoc on the country's roads. Britain is facing three shock weather warnings for snowfall tomorrow, with significant rainfall set to turn into heavy snow as temperatures plunge below freezing.

https://www.express.co.uk/news/weather/940023/BBC-weather-forecast-Easter-Monday-snow-warnings-UK

Originally Posted by: Gavin D 



I'm not sure how these hyperbole-riddled Express articles are actually of any value to a well established weather forum such as TWO where most of us are well seasoned (no pun intended) weather enthusiasts, as I just skim right past these posts. But I guess this is the media thread and I'm sure you're seeing something in them that I'm not.

But on the other hand, thanks for showing the Met Office medium range updates, so I'll forgive you.


Home location: Folkestone Harbour.
Gavin D
Sunday, April 1, 2018 2:14:34 PM

Travel delays expected as UK braced for more snow

Yellow warnings for snow are in place for bank holiday Monday, bringing a risk of road closures and power failures.

https://news.sky.com/story/travel-delays-expected-as-uk-braced-for-more-snow-11312505

Gavin D
Monday, April 2, 2018 11:01:04 AM
Met office

UK Outlook for Saturday 7 Apr 2018 to Monday 16 Apr 2018:

Whilst there is low confidence in the forecast through the period, the most likely scenario is for largely dry and warm conditions in the southeast and showers or longer spells of rain in the north and west through the weekend. There may be a tendency for this scenario to reverse early into next week with a bias for more settled conditions further north. It is likely that there will be marked variations in temperature across the UK, ranging from rather warm in central and southeastern areas to rather cold in the north with night frosts more likely. Next week the confidence becomes very low but a mild changeable pattern with showers or longer spells of rain seems most likely. After this a more blocked, settled regime may become more prevalent.

UK Outlook for Tuesday 17 Apr 2018 to Tuesday 1 May 2018:

There is very low confidence in the extended outlook, but a blocked or slowly progressive weather pattern looks most likely to be established by the start of the period with generally dry and settled conditions dominant across the UK. Mid-April could bring a return of more changeable, showery weather interspersed with drier periods. While signals suggest temperatures could be below average, we are likely to see frosts more confine to northern areas and an increasing number of warmer days during any settled spells.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast 

moomin75
Monday, April 2, 2018 11:04:11 AM

Met office

UK Outlook for Saturday 7 Apr 2018 to Monday 16 Apr 2018:

Whilst there is low confidence in the forecast through the period, the most likely scenario is for largely dry and warm conditions in the southeast and showers or longer spells of rain in the north and west through the weekend. There may be a tendency for this scenario to reverse early into next week with a bias for more settled conditions further north. It is likely that there will be marked variations in temperature across the UK, ranging from rather warm in central and southeastern areas to rather cold in the north with night frosts more likely. Next week the confidence becomes very low but a mild changeable pattern with showers or longer spells of rain seems most likely. After this a more blocked, settled regime may become more prevalent.

UK Outlook for Tuesday 17 Apr 2018 to Tuesday 1 May 2018:

There is very low confidence in the extended outlook, but a blocked or slowly progressive weather pattern looks most likely to be established by the start of the period with generally dry and settled conditions dominant across the UK. Mid-April could bring a return of more changeable, showery weather interspersed with drier periods. While signals suggest temperatures could be below average, we are likely to see frosts more confine to northern areas and an increasing number of warmer days during any settled spells.

Originally Posted by: Gavin D 

">https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

We as tax-payers pay for this drivel. What an absolute load of cobblers. So basically they are saying, it will be below average, average or above average, with some dry and some wet spells with it getting possibly warmer as spring progresses.

Why do they bother?? 


Witney, Oxfordshire

100m ASL

Gavin D
Monday, April 2, 2018 5:33:12 PM
Early next week

Mildest in south UK

Cooler further north

Sun and showers

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/43622574 

Polar Low
Monday, April 2, 2018 8:02:56 PM

Ayecool

to put it simple it’s is most likely that the weather 

May be the most likely scenario.. There may be a tendency

It is likely pattern looks most likely temperatures could be , we are likely

 

">https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

Originally Posted by: moomin75 

We as tax-payers pay for this drivel. What an absolute load of cobblers. So basically they are saying, it will be below average, average or above average, with some dry and some wet spells with it getting possibly warmer as spring progresses.

Why do they bother?? 

tallyho_83
Tuesday, April 3, 2018 10:36:29 AM

I was just looking across the Atlantic along eastern SEABOARD of the USA - NYC hasn't done too well for spring warmth either:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2018/04/02/new-york-city-pasted-by-heaviest-april-snow-since-1982/?utm_term=.63b2e0af8e3f

 

Surely some New Yorker's must be getting really fed up with the snow and cold by now surely!??


Home Location - Vixen Tor Close, Okehampton, Devon (221m ASL)

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Sean Moon

Magical Moon

www.magical-moon.com

Gavin D
Tuesday, April 3, 2018 11:27:48 AM
Met office

UK Outlook for Sunday 8 Apr 2018 to Tuesday 17 Apr 2018:

Many northern areas will be dry and bright on Sunday and Monday although rain and hill snow could affect the far north for a time. Conversely, more southern parts are expected to remain changeable with showers or longer spells of rain, but with warmer temperatures than of late. This north/south split is likely to continue through the remainder of the period, with many northern areas having largely dry and bright weather with some sunshine. Rain or showers are most likely across southern parts, but with some drier and brighter spells here too. It will be breezy at times with below average temperatures expected across parts of the north with the risk of some overnight frost, but with rather warm temperatures possible in the south.

UK Outlook for Tuesday 17 Apr 2018 to Tuesday 1 May 2018:

There is very low confidence in the extended outlook, but a slower moving weather pattern looks most likely to be established by the start of the period with generally dry and settled conditions dominant across the UK. Mid-April could bring a return of more changeable, showery weather interspersed with drier periods. While signals suggest temperatures could be below average, we are likely to see frosts more confine to northern areas and an increasing number of warmer days during any settled spells.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast 

The Beast from the East
Wednesday, April 4, 2018 10:59:24 AM

Bill Giles is absolutely right about the BBC graphics. If they zoomed in a bit it would make things much clearer. Why do we need to see Denmark?

 


Purley, Surrey, 70m ASL

"We have some alternative facts for you"

Kelly-Ann Conway - former special adviser to the President

David M Porter
Wednesday, April 4, 2018 11:13:27 AM

Bill Giles is absolutely right about the BBC graphics. If they zoomed in a bit it would make things much clearer. Why do we need to see Denmark?

 

Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 

I completely agree with Bill Giles, and I remember thinking the same thing myself when they began using the new graphics a couple of months ago.

Much as the old Met Office graphics that the BBC forecasts used up until early February were by no means perfect, these Meteogroup ones are a big step backwards IMO.


Lenzie, Glasgow

"A body of men holding themselves accountable to nobody ought not to be trusted by anybody." – Thomas Paine

Gavin D
Wednesday, April 4, 2018 11:31:14 AM
Met office

UK Outlook for Monday 9 Apr 2018 to Wednesday 18 Apr 2018:

Showers or longer spells of rain are likely to affect southern parts of the UK during next week, with the wettest weather most likely across the southwest at first. Northern areas however will probably be drier, brighter and more settled, although still a risk of some showers at times. It will also be breezy at times next week, with temperatures near or little below average, with night time frosts likely, especially in the north. The rest of the period then likely to see a mix of changeable spells of weather interspersed by drier and more settled conditions. Temperatures are likely to remain close to or a little below average, but some warmer spells are possible in any more prolonged settled weather.

UK Outlook for Thursday 19 Apr 2018 to Thursday 3 May 2018:

There is very low confidence in the extended outlook, but it is most likely that we will see changeable, showery weather interspersed with drier periods. Despite this, there is the chance of drier and more settled conditions dominating, especially at the start of the period. While signals suggest temperatures could be around or a little below average, we are likely to see frosts becoming confined to northern areas with an increasing number of warmer days during any settled spells.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast 

Gavin D
Wednesday, April 4, 2018 11:38:52 AM

BBC monthly outlook

Wednesday 4 April—Sunday 8 April
Often wet, but milder this weekend

Wednesday will remain unsettled, as low pressure tracks steadily north-east across England and Wales. This will bring outbreaks of rain to northern Britain, with upland snow developing widely across the Scottish mountains. Fairly widespread showers are expected to develop across central and southern areas, some of which will be heavy with small hail and thunder. Overnight, showers will ease, and rain will slowly ease from central Britain, allowing it to turn dry with clearing skies for many areas.

Thursday will be much drier, as a ridge of high pressure moves across the country. There will be sunny periods and fair-weather cloud for many areas, although Scotland will see thicker cloud with the risk of a few showers developing here. Any sunshine will turn increasingly hazy from the west later, as high cloud begins to build ahead of an advancing warm front. This will bring a cloudier afternoon to Northern Ireland, with a few spots of rain developing here later. Overnight, a south-easterly wind will strengthen, and a slow-moving band of rain will move into western Britain.

By Friday, low pressure looks to remain near-stationary to the west of the UK, with a mild south-easterly airflow continuing. Patchy frontal rain is expected to make little progress east, perhaps bringing some rain towards Central Britain.

By this weekend, low pressure is expected to remain to the west or south-west of the UK, with spells of rain most likely to push into southern and central Britain from the south. Temperatures remaining a touch above average this weekend.

Monday 9 April—Sunday 15 April
Gradually turning drier and more settled

Low pressure is expected to provide rather wet and cloudy conditions across the southern portion of the country, especially during the first few days of the week. Some of the rain may be heavy and persistent. At the same time, high pressure is expected to become increasingly dominant to the north-east of the UK, with a cooler easterly or north-easterly airflow developing across northern Britain in particular. Largely dry conditions are expected to prevail here for much of the week, although weakening frontal systems from the north-west may encroach upon north-west Scotland, perhaps bringing some patchy rain here. Once early rain eases from southern Britain, it will become drier here, as frontal systems recede to the south-west of the UK. Northern and eastern Britain are likely to see the best of the sunshine, and also the driest conditions.

Monday 16 April—Tuesday 29 May (May? )
Cool, but perhaps settled for a time

Longer range models indicate the continued migration of high pressure towards the UK during the middle of April. Although the exact pattern will very much be dependent on the orientation of the high, current indications are for an easterly or perhaps south-easterly airflow to continue for the UK. Rather dry conditions are expected to predominate, with frontal systems expected to remain to the south-west of the UK by this point, and temperatures are expected to remain slightly above average. As we look towards the final week of April, there are some signs that high pressure will move away from the UK, allowing low pressure to become anchored near to our shores. There are signals too for temperatures to dip below average, with an increasing threat of more widespread rain. Inevitably, the increasing strength of the sun may allow some heavy showers to develop too - a stark contrast to the drier weather expected through the middle of April!

Next Update

Will we see a more noticeable cold spell develop towards the end of this month?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook?ns_mchannel=social&ns_campaign=bbc_weather&ns_source=twitter&ns_linkname=news_central

Gavin D
Wednesday, April 4, 2018 7:13:29 PM
Next week

Northern UK

- Mostly dry

- Overnight frosts

Southern UK

- Breezy

- Chance of showers

- Milder

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/43648924 

DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
Thursday, April 5, 2018 6:09:52 AM

After today, the MetO Chichester forecast, the peak of excitement is a 50% chance of a shower on Sunday morning. Otherwise continuous light cloud, no sun, light winds, every day max 13C min 8C for the next SIX days. Can April's weather in the UK really be that boring?


War is God's way of teaching Americans geography - Ambrose Bierce

Chichester 12m asl

Gavin D
Thursday, April 5, 2018 1:26:15 PM
Met office

UK Outlook for Tuesday 10 Apr 2018 to Thursday 19 Apr 2018:

Next week will see showers or longer spells of rain affecting southern parts of the UK, perhaps heavy for a time in the southeast. Northern areas however will probably be drier and more settled, with the best of the sunshine in the west. Eastern parts of the UK will be breezy, with cloudier skies likely. Temperatures will be near average, and it will be feeling warm in the sunshine, apart from the eastern areas which will be feeling rather cold under the cloud. The following week will then probably see a mix of showery spells interspersed with drier and more settled conditions. Temperatures are likely to remain close to or a little below average, but some warmer spells are possible in any more prolonged settled weather towards mid-April.

UK Outlook for Friday 20 Apr 2018 to Friday 4 May 2018:

There is very low confidence in the forecast for the extended outlook, but there is a chance that we will see mainly dry and settled conditions, at least to begin with. There may be some changeable, showery spells at times, but these will still be interspersed with drier and more settled periods. While signals suggest temperatures could be around or a little below average, frosts are likely to be confined to northern areas, with an increasing number of warmer days during any settled spells. The end of April and into early May will bring an increased risk of wet and windy weather.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast 

Gavin D
Thursday, April 5, 2018 7:31:48 PM
Next week

Little rain

Easterly winds

Fairly mild

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/43662977 

johncs2016
Thursday, April 5, 2018 7:53:20 PM

Next week

Little rain
Easterly winds
Fairly mild

Originally Posted by: Gavin D 

">https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/43662977

Sadly though, it's just a shame that we have already had more than this month's average rainfall during this month (thanks to that massive deluge which we had over the three days which preceded today) which means that this is still going to go down as a wetter than average month anyway even if we do get very little rain over the outlook period.

Plus, we have yet more easterly muck to deal with which will no doubt push us back into yet another permacast hell, thus resulting in this month joining March as yet another duller than average month.

So, the only consolation here (is that is any consolation) is that infamous phrase of "at least, it'll be mild".

 

 


The north of Edinburgh, usually always missing out on snow events which occur not just within the rest of Scotland or the UK, but also within the rest of Edinburgh.

richardabdn
Thursday, April 5, 2018 8:20:15 PM

"https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/43662977

Sadly though, it's just a shame that we have already had more than this month's average rainfall during this month (thanks to that massive deluge which we had over the three days which preceded today) which means that this is still going to go down as a wetter than average month anyway even if we do get very little rain over the outlook period.

Plus, we have yet more easterly muck to deal with which will no doubt push us back into yet another permacast hell, thus resulting in this month joining March as yet another duller than average month.

So, the only consolation here (is that is any consolation) is that infamous phrase of "at least, it'll be mild".

 

 

Originally Posted by: johncs2016 

Looks like we'll be enduring maxes of 7C under slate grey skies so there'll will be no need for that phrase.

With the month currently running over 3C below average it's highly likely to end up the fourth colder than average April since 2012 probably with as large a negative anomaly as 2012 and 2016 


Aberdeen: The only place that misses out on everything

2023 - The Year that's Constantly Worse than a Bad November

2024 - 2023 without the Good Bits

2025 - The Weekend Curse hell intensifies

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