The Weather Outlook

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forestedge
Sunday, March 18, 2018 5:50:44 PM

 

And not forgetting HIRLAM too.

Poor show from the Beeb.

Originally Posted by: SEMerc 

HIRLAM was spot on again with amount here, same as the last snowfall. 

 

 


Roger

Ashurst Bridge (New Forest)

9m ASL

https://www.newforestweather.co.uk 

jhall
Sunday, March 18, 2018 6:25:21 PM

This afternoon's snow in the SE was certainly picked up by recent ICON and Arpege model runs. I'm not really sure why they have been caught out. I flagged it up on the TWO homepage this morning and noticed it was a possibility yesterday.

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

And even the hourly Met Office computerised forecast for my location - which I don't normally set much store by - had picked up on it.


Cranleigh, Surrey
The Beast from the East
Sunday, March 18, 2018 6:48:39 PM

It seems to be a human failure not a model failure

Meteogroup utter fail but surely the BBC presenters would have been looking at the models we see and intervened?

 


Purley, Surrey, 70m ASL

"We have some alternative facts for you"

Kelly-Ann Conway - former special adviser to the President

Gavin D
Monday, March 19, 2018 12:33:54 PM
Met office

UK Outlook for Saturday 24 Mar 2018 to Monday 2 Apr 2018:

The weekend will be unsettled with sunshine and showers for most, although some longer spells of rain are possible, with perhaps some hill snow in the north. It will be windy, with coastal gales at first. Temperatures will be slightly below normal and locally rather cold, with a risk of overnight frosts, chiefly in the north. During the final week of March the UK's weather is likely to stay changeable, with showers and rain at times, interspersed by drier and brighter interludes. There remains some uncertainty in the forecast for the Easter Weekend, but we are likely to see slow moving weather systems across the UK, with wetter weather more probable in the south. and with drier, colder conditions in the north albeit with a risk of snow at times.

UK Outlook for Tuesday 3 Apr 2018 to Tuesday 17 Apr 2018:

There is significant uncertainty in the forecast detail during this period, but it does look as though slow moving weather systems will affect the UK. There will most probably be a balance between Atlantic frontal systems affecting the south and west at times, with perhaps colder and perhaps drier conditions in the north. However, further snow is possible at times, more especially in the colder north. It will be windy in places with below average temperatures; some overnight frosts are likely during early April. Towards the middle of the month confidence becomes very low, but some warmer days are expected and it may become drier generally.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast 

Gavin D
Monday, March 19, 2018 9:30:56 PM
Next week

Windy at times

Spells of wet weather

Some sunnier days

Mild overall - Colder by Easter?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/43466008 

Gavin D
Tuesday, March 20, 2018 8:08:04 AM

UK weather: Britain to bake in 3 MONTHS of sizzling sunshine in hottest summer for more than 100 years

In just ten days, forecasters expect an onslaught of heat waves to hit, paving the way for a record breaking summer of sweltering sunshine. The mercury is expected to soar so high, in fact, there's a chance the highest ever UK temperature of 38.5C could be beaten. June, July and August will see Britain bake in 30C heat as extreme "heat surges" are swept in from the Continent. The predictions hinge on a rare set of meteorological circumstances, which forecasters now agree will come to fruition.

https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/uk-weather-britain-bake-3-8017294

First published in 2016 and re-edited for 2018

Gavin D
Tuesday, March 20, 2018 8:43:40 AM
Ex-BBC weatherman Bill Giles says channel's latest graphics are total washout - telling viewers to turn to Channel 5

Giles said hitches included the map, now “a lot smaller”, the blue background colour and limited place names

The BBC’S latest weather graphics have got a stormy reception - from BBC veteran Bill Giles. Giles, 78, who led the BBC weather team for 17 years until 2000, got in a blue funk about the new-look forecasts. He said delicately-shaded maps and graphics brought in February were hard to decipher. Thundering they were “as******disappointing as a downpour in high summer” he urged viewers seeking “clean, clear graphics” to turn to Channel 5 at 7pm.

https://www.mirror.co.uk/tv/tv-news/ex-bbc-weatherman-bill-giles-12216529 

Rob K
Tuesday, March 20, 2018 9:25:48 AM
It's funny how after all the complaints about the tilted view making Scotland too small, now they've gone for a straight overhead view everyone is complaining that the map is too small. We can't have it both ways, unless they do side-by side maps of the northern and southern halves of the country to better fit on a horizontal TV screen!
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

David M Porter
Tuesday, March 20, 2018 9:36:43 AM

It's funny how after all the complaints about the tilted view making Scotland too small, now they've gone for a straight overhead view everyone is complaining that the map is too small. We can't have it both ways, unless they do side-by side maps of the northern and southern halves of the country to better fit on a horizontal TV screen!

Originally Posted by: Rob K 

The best maps the BBC had IMO were the ones they had from the mid-80s up until the spring of 2005, when they changed to the ones they used up until early February this year. The map of the British Isles was just the right size IMO and there was no tilt on it at all.


Lenzie, Glasgow

"A body of men holding themselves accountable to nobody ought not to be trusted by anybody." – Thomas Paine

Arcus
Tuesday, March 20, 2018 10:49:38 AM

 

The best maps the BBC had IMO were the ones they had from the mid-80s up until the spring of 2005, when they changed to the ones they used up until early February this year. The map of the British Isles was just the right size IMO and there was no tilt on it at all.

Originally Posted by: David M Porter 

The flat map is fine, IMO it's the cloud cover and animations that need sorting out. Under the previous system cloud was shown as a shadow over the land and ppn was animated to make it stand out. Compare:

I would say under the old system it's pretty easy to see where the snowfall is, where the cloud is, and where is clear. Also the old system had animations for snowfall and rainfall that made it even more obvious than these images suggest.


Ben,

Nr. Easingwold, North Yorkshire

30m asl

idj20
Tuesday, March 20, 2018 10:56:14 AM

 

The best maps the BBC had IMO were the ones they had from the mid-80s up until the spring of 2005, when they changed to the ones they used up until early February this year. The map of the British Isles was just the right size IMO and there was no tilt on it at all.

Originally Posted by: David M Porter 



The one way to make the UK bigger and fill in the space was to put the Shetland Islands and the Channel Islands in little squares at the corners. It worked well in the symbols era but don't think it would sit that well with today's CGI set up. The other method is the fly-around system and we all know how that went down.
  That's the drawback of the UK being a long and elongated thing with little islands at the far top and bottom ends. Although, when TV screens were more square back in the CRT days, the map of the UK effectively "looked" bigger. Now it looks rather lost and small on widescreen tellies with a lot of dead space on both sides.


Home location: Folkestone Harbour.
Gavin D
Tuesday, March 20, 2018 12:53:24 PM
Met office

UK Outlook for Sunday 25 Mar 2018 to Tuesday 3 Apr 2018:

There will be sunshine and showers for most on Sunday, and some of these could be heavy and slow-moving with a risk of hail and thunder. Through the early part of next week the weather is likely to become changeable once again, with showers and rain at times, interspersed by drier and brighter interludes. Temperatures will be near average or rather cold during the day, with a risk of overnight frosts. The Easter weekend is still too far away to be confident with any details. The most likely scenario currently is a spell of colder than average weather, with increased likelihood of overnight frosts, and a greater than normal chance of snow, especially in the north.

UK Outlook for Tuesday 3 Apr 2018 to Tuesday 17 Apr 2018:

There is significant uncertainty in the forecast detail during this period, but it does look as though slow moving weather systems will affect the UK. There will most probably be a balance between Atlantic frontal systems affecting the south and west at times, with perhaps colder and perhaps drier conditions in the north. However, further snow is possible at times, more especially in the colder north. It will be windy in places with below average temperatures; some overnight frosts are likely during early April. Towards the middle of the month confidence becomes very low, but some warmer days are expected and it may become drier generally.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast 

Gavin D
Tuesday, March 20, 2018 8:50:16 PM
Easter Weather 2018: Met Office forecast BARRAGE of snow could hit on Bank Holiday weekend

https://www.express.co.uk/news/weather/934597/Easter-Weather-2018-Met-Office-forecast-snow-UK-Bank-Holiday-weekend-BBC-weather-latest 

Gavin D
Tuesday, March 20, 2018 8:59:46 PM
Next week

Becoming windier

Spells of wet weather

Some sunnier days

Mild overall - Cooler for Easter?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/43478517 

Gavin D
Wednesday, March 21, 2018 12:24:48 PM
Met office

UK Outlook for Monday 26 Mar 2018 to Wednesday 4 Apr 2018:

There will be sunshine and showers on Monday, though rain is likely to spread in from the west later and through into Tuesday. Sunshine and showers following, these falling as snow over the high ground in the north. For the rest of this period, the weather will remain changeable, with showers and rain at times, interspersed by drier and brighter interludes. Snow may also occur at times, more especially in the north. Temperatures are likely to be rather cold, with a risk of overnight frosts. The Easter weekend is too far away to be confident with any details. The most likely scenario currently is a spell of colder than average weather, with increased likelihood of overnight frosts, and a greater than normal chance of snow showers, especially in the north.

UK Outlook for Thursday 5 Apr 2018 to Thursday 19 Apr 2018:

Colder than average conditions are likely to prevail overall; often showery with fairly light winds, and a continued chance of overnight frosts. Showers could be heavy with hail and thunder at times, but there are also likely to be good spells of sunshine in-between. Showers or longer spells of rain could fall as snow at times, mainly over higher ground and in the north. Any milder, wetter and windier spells are likely to be relatively short lived. Towards the middle of the month, it is possible that we could start to see some warmer temperatures, less cold nights, and it may become drier generally.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast 

Gavin D
Wednesday, March 21, 2018 2:47:53 PM

Will cold conditions return?

"Met Office long-range forecasting expert Jeff Knight said: “It is too early to say exactly what weather we will get at Easter, but long-range forecasts show a greater than usual chance of cold spells over Easter and into April. Northerly or easterly winds will need to compete with the increasingly strong spring sunshine and longer days, however. So, it is unlikely that any cold spells will be as severe as those recently. If the cold does return, snow is unlikely to be as disruptive as recent events in southern Britain.”

https://blog.metoffice.gov.uk/2018/03/21/will-cold-conditions-return/

tallyho_83
Wednesday, March 21, 2018 3:36:00 PM

 

The flat map is fine, IMO it's the cloud cover and animations that need sorting out. Under the previous system cloud was shown as a shadow over the land and ppn was animated to make it stand out. Compare:

I would say under the old system it's pretty easy to see where the snowfall is, where the cloud is, and where is clear. Also the old system had animations for snowfall and rainfall that made it even more obvious than these images suggest.

Originally Posted by: Arcus 

Indeed and the blue denoted frost and cloud was a dark shadow - where as now they use the same colour graphics for frost, snow, fog and cloud!!


Home Location - Vixen Tor Close, Okehampton, Devon (221m ASL)

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Sean Moon

Magical Moon

www.magical-moon.com

Gavin D
Wednesday, March 21, 2018 3:43:44 PM

10-day trend

Into Easter weekend

Winds from the north

Colder than average

Wintry showers

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fNGRYkVpWeM

Gavin D
Wednesday, March 21, 2018 5:55:18 PM
Some changes are to be made to the met office warning system

"

What’s new then?

Two additional types of extreme weather are being added to the current list of rain, snow, wind, fog, and ice.

These are thunderstorms, and lightning.

These can also be combined if more than one could be a potential risk to the public.

Hot weather will still be treated as a public health warning rather than a weather issue.

What about timings?

The Met Office is also planning to change how far ahead it issues warnings.

Currently they only issue alerts five days in advance.

This is going to be extended to a full week, so warnings may be put out a week before the anticipated bad weather."

https://www.gazettelive.co.uk/news/teesside-news/met-office-changing-weather-warning-14441857?ref=BNTMedia&utm_medium=twitter 

Arcus
Wednesday, March 21, 2018 6:16:45 PM
I'd agree that lightning is a hazard worth warning about, but not sure that there needs to be two separate categories of thunderstorm and lightning warnings. Lightning warnings should be part of the general thunderstorm warning, along with large hail, heavy rainfall and strong winds, where applicable.
Ben,

Nr. Easingwold, North Yorkshire

30m asl

Gavin D
Wednesday, March 21, 2018 8:58:27 PM
Easter weather WARNING: Heavy snow forecast for Easter weekend as April 2018 FREEZES OVER

BRITAIN is on fresh alert for another ‘big cold spell’ with a bitter Easter weekend set to give way to a month-long April freeze.

https://www.express.co.uk/news/weather/935124/Easter-weather-forecast-snow-UK-April-2018-cold-long-range-forecast-Met-Office 

White Meadows
Wednesday, March 21, 2018 9:03:41 PM
Thomasszzzz Schhhityaknickerboker on bbc London 4.30pm:

“Latest computer output today says a northerly icy outbreak for the U.K., after another mini beast before Easter”

Exact timing Tbc

Gavin D
Wednesday, March 21, 2018 9:11:25 PM
Next 10 days

Weekend showers

Mild start to next week

Cooler by Easter

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/43494488 

tallyho_83
Wednesday, March 21, 2018 10:48:44 PM
Meanwhile in NYC:

https://www.earthcam.com/cams/newyork/timessquare/?cam=tstwo_hd 


Home Location - Vixen Tor Close, Okehampton, Devon (221m ASL)

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Sean Moon

Magical Moon

www.magical-moon.com

Gavin D
Thursday, March 22, 2018 1:15:03 PM
Met office

UK Outlook for Tuesday 27 Mar 2018 to Thursday 5 Apr 2018:

Rain is likely for southern and central areas on Tuesday, with sunny spells and showers in the north. These showers will become more widespread for Wednesday, with snow flurries for northern hills. For the rest of this period, the weather will remain changeable, with showers and rain at times, interspersed by drier and brighter interludes. Snow may also occur at times, more especially in the north. Temperatures are likely to be rather cold, with an increasing risk of overnight frosts mainly away from the south. The Easter weekend is too far away to be confident with any details. The most likely scenario currently is a spell of colder than average weather, with increased likelihood of overnight frosts, and a greater than normal chance of snow showers, especially in the north.

UK Outlook for Friday 6 Apr 2018 to Friday 20 Apr 2018:

Colder than average conditions are likely to prevail overall in April. It will often be showery, with fairly light winds, and a continued chance of overnight frosts. The showers could be heavy with hail and thunder at times, but there are also likely to be good spells of sunshine in-between. Showers or longer spells of rain could occasionally fall as snow, mainly over higher ground and in the north. Any milder, wetter and windier spells are likely to be relatively short lived. Towards the middle of the month, it is possible that we could start to see some warmer temperatures, less cold nights, and it may become drier generally.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast 

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