Terry Scholey latest spring thoughts/forecast.
The current spell of severe winter weather I believe is a major clue to the type of conditions that could follow this spring. If this proves broadly correct, then May will be a good indicator as to the summer to come. I was pleased to see that my overall findings broadly agree with the Gavs Weather Vids prediction which has helped increase confidence, but my approach is somewhat different.
Singularities are always a major player in my work and are particularly important during the spring months. These help to bring more detail into the forecast, but precise timing can be a problem. Other than this, basically I have taken a look at ten springs with very cold or significantly cold starts to March back to the mid-nineteenth century and added my 55 years or so of experience.
The general finding came up with a fair amount of northern 'blocking' particularly in the first half of both March and May. This often brings bouts of cold weather, or occasionally extremes of temperature and rainfall when milder air pushes up from the South. Changes can be sudden leading to crazy weather, with March 1965 in one of the archival springs I studied, the craziest month of the lot. April saw the least variance and tended to be drier.
Northern 'blocking' situations in the spring are generally not good for farmers and growers because of the extremes they can cause, not withstanding the possibility of some unseasonably late and damaging frosts. These are my final somewhat more detailed thoughts, based on the above with fingers crossed!
MARCH
A wet, cold first half and some heavy snow to begin with. A thaw moving up from the South could cause flooding for a while, before colder air returns. Apart from one month, all the March's that saw cold weather until mid-month had an element of much milder weather in the second half. Some spells were warm even very warm these mostly in the final week. Further showers from time to time are indicated, but it should be less wet than the first half.
APRIL
Perhaps a warm start but turning showery with a risk of thunder. Then fair or fine at times and mainly dry until mid-month but coolish with some night frost. A few showers occasionally mostly in the North. Hints of a warmer spell around or during the third week, then unsettled and turning cooler. A complicated picture into the final week with perhaps locally heavy showers giving thunder. A hint of a change to much colder conditions around month end.
MAY
Northern 'blocking' especially in the first half of the month that has a decidedly chilly look about it. Some places could even see some snow, this mostly on hills in the North in often cold, dull showery conditions particularly in the East and South. West Scotland and Northern Ireland should tend to be drier and finer with perhaps a good deal of sunshine at times here. This could lead to some pleasantly warm afternoons, but the nights would be cold with late damaging frost almost anywhere distinctly possible.
Warmer air may try to push up from the South most likely in the second week and should this be the case, then heavy falls of rain together with thunderstorms will occur especially over England and Wales. Uncertainties about the second half which should be warmer generally with summery spells that could be very warm or hot In an at times thundery month though there'll be some showers, with further storms perhaps breaking out followed brief unsettled somewhat cooler intervals.
HOPEFULLY THIS WILL PROVE A USEFUL GUIDE
26th February 2018