The curse of a summer ending in "8"

Will 2018 break a long run of summers ending in "8" being mediocre?

January: mixture of mild and cold spells with some snow and frost. Not especially wet overall.

February: I think it is only a matter of time before we have a significantly cold February and I think it could be this time round. Overall cold and frosty with some snow, coldest February since 1991 and sub 2C for CET. Winds frequently with a northerly component.

March: cool and fairly unsettled.

April: have been some wintry Aprils ending in "8" in recent times. I don't think this will be one. Average month overall. 

May: a pretty decent month, dry overall with the first real warm spell of the year. Sunnier than average.

June: a fairly showery month, close to average temperatures.

July: a below par month, unsettled with one hot spell possibly with thunder.

August: average month rainfall wise and temperatures.

September: a fairly wet cool month.

October: some anticyclonic spells, a quiet month.

November: a cooler than average month, some frosts and an early season snowfall for some.

December: a fairly cold month with some frosts and some snowfalls. One or two mild intervals.

Normally, I don't think too much about what all the global factors are going to be doing in terms of what might happen during the summer until the start of the spring which precedes it. Next year of course, will end with the start of the winter of 2018/19 and it is around the start of the preceding autumn (in this case, that would be around September 2018) when I start to think about that in earnest. This means that what I am about to give is a very first stab at what I think, could happen before we even have a chance to take those various global factors (such as ENSO state, Solar Activity and SSTs) into consideration.

Generally, the fact that we are now approaching solar minimum means that we are probably going into a colder phase overall, and I think that this will be helped to a certain degree by La Nina. That then means that our chances of colder winters will increase over time, but that hasn't tended to bode very well for our summers which has tended to be poor during those years as a result of northern blocking which then causes a big trough to be sitting right on top of the UK underneath that blocking, thus resulting in a very wet and poor summer overall. Conversely, those years where we have expected to see a decent summer tend to be not a very good omen for our winter and it is therefore no surprise that when we had that really good summer back in 2013, that was followed by a very mild, wet and stormy winter. With all of that in mind then, this is what I see happening this year.

January: After our dry start to the winter which we have had, this month will be a bit more unsettled but with a more southerly tracking jet. What we will see with that is a lot of rain in the south of the UK which then falls as snow at lower levels in Scotland, though only really north of the Central Belt. Temperatures come out average with that with Scotland being colder than average, but with the south of England being warmer than average as a result of being in the milder air.

February: The jet stream goes a bit further south still, resulting in England and Wales being wetter than average, but with Scotland possibly becoming drier than average once again although easterly winds might make it a bit wetter in the east. That will then also be a generally colder than average month.

March: Probably still unsettled but less so across England, and that will probably be cool month with the chance of some wintry potential.

April: Maybe so more wintry potential here as well to begin with. My thinking is this month won't be as dry as April of this year, but there will be a lot of easterly winds and the characteristic east coast haar. England and Wales might be wet at times though. About average temperatures overall.

May: High pressure in charge gives a dry month, but eastern coasts might be cooler again due to the east coast haar. Generally though, it will be warmer than average away from the east coast.

June: By this time, the high pressure has started to drift away northwards allowing weather systems to bring weather systems to the south where it will be cooler than average. Scotland might still be a bit drier at this time, and even a bit warmer than average albeit with the east coast again being plagued by that east coast haar.

July: A really wet month overall with low pressure sitting right on top of the UK for much of the time, and with that causing quite a number of problems at Wimbledon due to the resulting interruptions to play. Cooler than average as well.

August: Much drier in the south as the Azores High finally starts to take hold and warmer down there as well, but with Scotland still being wetter and cooler than average due to the weather systems still being allowed to come through.

September: High pressure builds right across the country to give a dry, warm and sunny month.

October: The high pressure slips southwards, allowing Scotland in particular to become much wetter and possibly stormy but it will be warmer than average once again.

November: A very wet, unsettled, stormy and fairly mild month with possible flooding problems although it might well get a bit colder towards the end.

December: Jet stream on a NW to SE trajectory which gives unsettled weather overall with mild, wet and windy weather alternating with colder, showery weather which produces temporary snow cover to lowland Scotland at times, even within the Central Belt. Temperatures around average overall.

Globally, one of thetop 5 warmest years on record.

Locally, hosepipe bans by July

It’s not years ending in ‘8’ that seem to be cursed as far as summer goes it’s years beginning with ‘2’

My predictions:

-Very little snow and frost in winter, possibly even a frost-free or near frost free (<10hrs frost) winter month.

-Spring sunnier than summer.

-Summer dull and wet with little warmth. June a particularly nasty and unpleasant month.

-Mild autumn especially October. No frost until November with poor tree colour.

-The 5th consecutive wetter than average year.

-At least one month from January, November or December will be exceptionally sunny whereas at least one, if not all, the summer months will be excessively cloudy.

Doesn’t take much skill to make predictions these days as it’s the same every year. The current climate is more stable, benign and unvaried than at any other point in at least the past 160 years

Pure guesswork on my part, this:

January - Slightly colder than average with winds frequently from the north-westerly quadrant. A few classic sunshine and snow showers days bringing some transient coverings (CET: 3.6).

February - Milder and wetter than average after the chillier start to winter this year. One or two named storms, as well as one very mild spell later on in the month (CET: 6.2).

March - Fairly close to average with a bit of everything weather-wise. Some late winter cold with a snowfall and some early spring mildness bringing the first day in the high teens to most (CET: 6.6).

April - I don't know why, but I think an exceptionally warm, dry and sunny April is on the way this year with high pressure in control for pretty much all of the month (CET: 11.0).

May - Quite a flip after a very warm and dry April, bringing much cooler and wetter conditions to the country. We've also had two very decent Mays on the trot, so this undoubtly is enough to mean this year's will be a bad one (CET: 10.4).

June - A pretty bog standard June. Some cool and wet weather to begin with before a spell of warm and dry high pressure sets up for the middle two weeks. Perhaps then turning a bit more changeable later on (CET: 14.7).

July - Very decent for the most part with quite a fair amount of warm and dry weather around. Like many recent Julys, I'd predict a Spanish plume at some point, bringing high heat and thunderstorms, if only briefly (CET: 17.0).

August - Cool, wet and dull, why wouldn't it be? (CET: 15.1).

September - Near average to very slightly warmer than average. Some late summer warmth and some early autumn coolness, but also very dry under mostly anticyclonic conditions. (CET: 14.5).

October - A big mix. A very warm first week with temperatures quite widely into the mid-20s before things turn quite unsettled in the middle. The month finally ends with the first cool/cold snap of the season (CET 11.3).

November - Very unsettled with quite a few named storms rattling through. Exceptionally wet as well (CET: 7.1).

December - Quite seasonable with some spells of fairly cold weather at times. No white Christmas, but very frosty under an area of high pressure towards the end of the month (CET: 2.9).

Better than some of last year's predictions.

Not bad for the weather and general pattern, especially locally, but I was a fair bit out on my CET guess.

Spring warmth starts in April and ends in April

Summer heat doesn’t start at all

Autumn starts in January and ends in December

Winter stutters along but like that gorgeous girl sat across the bar from you, all that glitters isn’t gold.

With the seine again in flood and some impressive dumps on the alps I'm thinking that this godawful jet positioning is now responding to the opening up of Beaufort over summer?

It might only be a small tweak but that could mean a change to the amount of cloud/wet we see this year?

With us rolling into solar min as well I think/hope we might see a more settled Atlantic and more HP's sitting over us or just to our SW?

If we are to see plumes then they'll be as likely to flow up from Africa as Spain so we may see some very extreme weathers if a plume meets an Arctic plunge through may/June ( tornado's?).

If we are seeing a flip in average summer jet positioning then ,who knows?, it could do a 180 and sit well north of us leaving us open for a 3 month summer with plenty of sun, high temps,home grown deluges and sultry nights?

All in all it will be the changes we have seen growing and consolidating that bring us our weather and not some old 'average' weathers?

First bold prediction on the way to being fulfilled and second already proven correct.

Despite the dull start, January managed a well above average 86.3 hours sunshine. Average was a ridiculous 4 hours per day between the 15th and 31st due to relentless zonality giving a complete lack of any variable or interesting conditions. What you would expect on a Mediterranean Island though most of those have probably seen heavier snowfall than we’ve had over the past five years

Here’s another prediction: the same period of at least one month from June, July or August will see less sunshine.

January- some colder, snowier spells than the previous few with a blood, blue, supermoon possible towards the end.

February- frost on the cars then cold sunshine up until the 1st; uncertainty grows thereafter.

Still no sub 2C February. It has got to be a matter of time. 

Oopsie daisy!

8th wettest on record for England and Wales. Didn't feel like it was that wet to me.

Nope!

My April prediction is pretty much down the pan too.

However, I did say that February would be drier than average here and of course, that is exactly what ended up happening to the point where February is to date, our only drier than average month during this year so far (and will continue to be even after this month since we have already had more than our average month's rainfall during this month). Another point about January was the fact that this was when the last warmer than average CET occurred which tells me that it was a lot milder down in England during that month which is also in line with what I predicted.

However, I had said that February would be wetter than average down south which wasn't actually the case because according to the Met Office maps, those drier than average conditions which I had here in Edinburgh, were actually quite extensive across most of the UK during that month so that was something which I didn't get right. February ended up being much colder than average here though, and that is in line with what I predicted.

Of course, it was at the end of February when it then got really cold and from there all the way through March, it was actually a lot colder than what I had expected. This was shown when I had mentioned there being the chance of some wintry precipitation since it turned out that we actually ended up getting quite a lot of wintry precipitation, and quite a bit of snow. Again though, I didn't actually do all that well on the precipitation stakes. Here on the east coast of Scotland, it was wetter in average in line with England and Wales during March.

However, I had said that it would be less unsettled down in England, thus implying that it would be drier down there whereas in actual fact, it was the west of Scotland along with the extreme NW of England which got all of the dry weather during March, rather than anywhere down south. Overall though, that has been quite a good prediction which has even already carried on into this month to a certain extent during this month as well. Here, I said that this month wasn't be as dry as the same month last year and I have already been proved right big time on that front, and there can be no greater contrast from what was our driest April on record last year, to what we have seen during this month so far where we ended up getting more than the average April rainfall over the course of just three days.

There has also been a lot of wintry precipitation during this month as well, and I did say that there would be a chance of that happening again. I was also right when I said that there would be a lot of easterly winds as there has been from the end of February onwards. I also said that we would get a lot of that east coast haar during this month. For that, we would need the warmer variety of easterly wind to occur rather than those Siberian and Arctic sourced easterlies which we have been getting, but the forecast models are all indicating that this is likely to happen in the near future, and that will then increase those chances of seeing that east coast haar. However, we have started this month off on a really cold note and I predicted that temperatures would be around average.

Today's milder weather would help to bring those temperatures up to or above average if that was to continue into a longer milder spell. However, even that relatively warm easterly which is being predicted by the forecast models isn't going to help us in any way with that since those winds are still always going to be colder close to the east coast where I am. This would suggest that another colder than average month appears to be on the cards for here and so far, this has been a year in which we haven't yet actually had a warmer than average month in this part of the world so far.

May forecast turned out to be correct although the first real warm spell was in the April.

I was also right about April being not as dry as the same month last year and in fact, we ended up going from the driest April on record last year, to what ended being a wetter than average month this time. Having said that though, this was mainly due to the very wet start to the month which we had, as the second half of the month was a lot drier. I also said that April would see average temperatures. The April CET figure says otherwise, because April was a very warm month overall according to the CET figure.

However, I don't live in the CET region, so I have to go by how it was locally for me. What actually happened here was that a cold start to the month was later cancelled out by a much warmer second half of the month. That then resulted in our overall temperatures being fairly close to average overall, albeit with it being still being slightly warmer than average overall. When you take that into consideration, my prediction for April comes out to be not too bad.

As for this month, it is too early to say. So far, this has been a poor start to this month and a poor start to the summer. Last year, we had our wettest June on record, but that started off on a dry note during the first week. So far though, this month has got off to a fairly wet start. The rainfall amounts which we are getting just now aren't all that massive, and there hasn't been any of the torrential downpours which other parts of the country have had.recently. This means that there is still nothing happening just now to suggest that we are actually making up that recent rainfall deficit.

Nevertheless, what we are seeing just now is still a massive flip from all of the dry weather which we saw during May, and which resulted in that month ending with us being in an official drought. Because of that, we are actually ahead just now in terms of rainfall, of where we are at the same stage of the same month last year. Taking that on its own merit, the fact that last June then still ended up being our wettest June on record doesn't make for very good reading this time. Nevertheless, the model output has it becoming drier again after today and if that is correct, this month may well still end up being drier than average overall anyway, just as I had predicted.

Yes, shame I didn't go with it though. 

Hmmm, pity about the tornado muse......

If we are now to see as many scorchers as washout summers, back to back, then maybe by the end we will have seen some big twisters?

Yes, I was one of those who predicted a poor summer with frequent interruptions to play on the outside courts at Wimbledon due to rain.

Those predictions were based on the cold SSTs in Atlantic along with the current very low levels of solar activity yet this has been anything but a poor summer.

So far, both summer months have been warmer, sunnier and drier than average. The only question now is whether or not, August can deliver a hat trick with all three summer months being warmer, drier and sunnier than average and you certainly refer to that as a poor summer overall (although, I'm sure that a certain member from Aberdeen who I shall not name but who everyone will probably be able to guess who I'm talking about, will probably still be able to find some way of being able to refer to this summer as a poor one).

Sorry, not sure I understand. Who is this person? 

.. although I probably should have said most people rather than everyone for the benefit of any new members who have recently joined this forum but I will add another clue in that his username begins with a lower case 'r' and ends with a lower case 'n'.