Yes, very much so. Will it shift further south, shift north or stay where it is over the next 24-48hrs? Answers on a postcard...

Ensembles for here . The mean is now -2ish here. Very interesting but massive uncertainty as highlighted by the spread.

12z ICON and Arpege both look nasty for the southern half of the UK. 

Every year we get a storm producing wind speeds of at least that strength (74mph) here on the south east coast (as IDJ will attest to).  But for more inland areas its potentially quite notably windy. More runs needed before we know what will transpire, the storm is currently a fledgling on the other side of the pond.

According to the 12z GFS, the snow is the main weather story this week

The track and intensity shown by both these models is consistent with the latest FAX chart

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t60

The highest gust speed on Arpege is 89mph. And it sits not far from right over my house

Hope it's about 100 miles south, principally so MBY can remain under the colder air.

Oh, and that somebody else's fence gets blown down 

Northerners be like "Go south! Go south! We want the snow".

Southerners be like "No! Go north! Go north! We don't want the stormy winds".

 Nailed it Ian! 

We are starting to get reasonably good cross model agreement on the intensity and track of this storm. GEM, NAVGEM, JMA and METO all in good agreement with ARPEGE and ICON. Central pressure around 970mb to 974mb at its peak.

GFS is a bit further south and about 10mb higher. It does have some support from the WRF model http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/wrfnmm/nmmuk-2-60-0.png?15-18

and also from ECM. No UK chart for ECM at the key time as it only goes in 24hr increments. But this T72 chart for Germany is not far off what the GFS is showing at the same time.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2018011512/ECD1-72.GIF

So still time for some changes but the general pattern looks fairly clear now.

We can now start tracking how the actual development of the system compares to the current forecasts. Current central pressure predictions per the fax charts are as follows:

12z Tuesday 1011mb

0z Wednesday 1003mb

12z Wednesday 987mb

0z Thursday 974mb

hahaha   I don’t often post on this site, but this comment made me chuckle! 

And the weather be like ‘I’ll do what the hell I like’.

Solutions now agregating on a less intense system tracking a bit further South. We’ll soon know.

DWD ICON 18z view of Wednesday night's wind gusts. pic.twitter.com/vO2X6zMqgy

— TheWeatherOutlook (@TWOweather) January 15, 2018

Looks like this has now been named Storm Fionn - hopefully it keeps on a more Southerly track to deliver a bit of snow here!:

Wind Warning for Donegal, Galway, Leitrim, Mayo, Sligo, Clare, Cork and Kerry

This evening and for a time tonight, storm Fionn will bring very strong westerly winds to Atlantic coastal counties with mean wind speeds of 65 to 80 km/h and gusts of up to 120 km/hr, strongest near coasts with a risk of flooding.

Issued:

Tuesday 16 January 2018 10:00

Valid:

Tuesday 16 January 2018 15:00 to Wednesday 17 January 2018 03:00

http://www.met.ie/nationalwarnings/default.asp

The "storm" looking bog standard now, and not quite the story some thought it was.  Head for the snow threads.

Yep- still 50mph+ gusts so a breezy feel, but not the event previously projected- but as 1987 showed, those isobars can squeeze a bit tighter without much warning.

Hasn't even been named yet has It? Says it all. None event. 

Seems to be some confusion in here this evening. Met Eireann have named today’s “storm”  Fionn as gusts of up to 120kph are expected on the Atlantic coasts of Ireland. The 12z fax chart showed a low at 960mb to the north West of the UK with an associated trough and a squeeze in the isobars. I think this is what is driving the orange warning that was issued and resulting in the naming of the system.

This has nothing to do with tomorrow’s storm which is still in the western Atlantic. I disagree that it is a non event. Latest Fax chart shows it at 980mb over the UK which is only slightly above what it showed yesterday. ARPEGE has the system at 975mb as it exits the east coast and wind gusts up to 120-130kph locally in parts of northern England. So it might still get named tomorrow depending on how the models look by then. I agree it is looking less significant than it was but to call it a non event is misleading.

This was definitely not a non-event. The Met Office upgraded their yellow warning overnight to increase the wind speeds. Gusts over 70mph include:

London City AP 73mph

Wittering 74mph

Cranwell 71mph

Aberdaron 78mph

Aberporth 71mph

Capel Curig 81mph

Liverpool AP 73mph

Pembrey Burrows 73mph

Lake Vyrnwy 76mph

Liscombe 74mph

Valley 73mph

Numerous reports of power outages across southern England.

The two main train lines from the south coast to London are blocked by fallen trees this morning. Portsmouth line blocked between Havant and Petersfield and the Southampton line is blocked between Eastleigh and Basingstoke.

Some impressive gusts for sure probably the stormiest spell of the winter here. Yet the storm hasn't been named odd.

I think that was a different storm named by the Irish met office yesterday but not sure. It's confusing