Might be worth a decent discussion on a weather forum?

Now, this system has been upgraded by the models once again, and it will be interesting to see how long it will take for either the Met Office or Met Eireainn to officially name that system as Storm Fionn which of course, is the next name on the list. The BBC's Week Ahead forecast did have this part of the world, getting some snow from that system, especially over high ground and yet, most of the models had the snow risk further to the north on the latest runs that I know of.

This means that we would just end up getting rain from that here in Edinburgh if that came off, although these models did still have the strongest winds being to the south of here. Nevertheless, the position of that low pressure system would then only need to be adjusted a bit further north for the Central Belt of Scotland to then come under the firing line from those high winds and so even at this stage, there is still a lot to play for here, with just about all outcomes in terms of the position of that low pressure system, still possible.

Yes neil i have noticed the met office day by day forecast has me with 53mph gusts 6am thursday and glasgow onlu 40mph so a shift southwards again.

Winds don't look too ferocious either which is good. The VERY good news is that it is looking promising for a notable snow event in central Scotland late Wed/Thur morning.

This definitely looks likely to be the main weather event of the week. Key factors are:

1) Max gusts don't look exceptional but very strong winds are expected over a large area

2) There is the potential for significant disruption during the Thursday am rush hour 

Here's the Arpege 00z view for 03 GMT, Thursday 18th January.

(*In addition to the current warnings)

Agreed. Maybe I'm getting older, but frankly I couldn't care less about snow right now.

Looks like we'll be pummelled in my location by snow tomorrow and then strong winds from this storm late on Wednesday and I must say - the snow is looking much more appealing to me as it stands. 

Great to have such variety in the weather though this week 

Interesting how each run shifts the little zipper slightly. Seems some areas are going to have to huncker down more than other areas, but the effects seem like they maybe felt nationwide.

Posted this in the MOD but probably better here..

The LP looks slightly further South to me on the 6z run. I don't whether it's me over looking but it also looks to have more of a south easterly trajectory as appose to the 0z and previous runs where it barrelled west across Scotland. Maybe me over analysing...

A forlorn hope, but I'm still yearning for it track much further south - through the Midlands ideally.

Totally agree with your observations. The Scottish mainland looks relatively unscathed by wind on this run. Strongest winds, at the moment entering the west coast of northern England exiting the Wash area early hours Thursday morning. Still time for changes yet! The only crumb is this thing is moving so quickly.

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn728.gif

I see the blended trend continues to take the centre a little but further south, increasing the risk of a big snowfall in Scotland and reducing the area affected by the strongest wind field.

Me to.

Unlikely though.

Keep heading south 

I had a feeling it was over doing it and it was going to go back to what the models first had shown when they picked it up.

I’m still not convinced the final track and intensity are nailed down yet. A little strengthening and it may end up further north a little weakening and it may be a bit further south and I feel that may not be known until closer to the time.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPUK12_60_2.png 

Max of 2c here, but on the wrong side of marginal for now.

Plenty left in this one yet.

control similar to the op. Good news and hope this is a non event

GFSS 12z now showing it will be England (except the far N) and Wales which will see the strongest winds - but much less stormy than what was showing yesterday.

In other words:-

A bog standard wet/windy episode.

Some snow likely to the N of the Low. For us in the S:-

zzzzzzzzzz

GEFS mean 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSAVGEU12_60_2.png

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSAVGEU12_60_1.png

Looks like a shift south to me.