The Weather Outlook

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picturesareme
23 October 2018 19:33:54
If only it was; December, January, February.

Or...

Talking about charts that looks vaguely like a chart from a by gone decade or even century in some cases.

and the worst.. JFF 😖

Saint Snow
23 October 2018 20:04:47



and the worst.. JFF 😖

Originally Posted by: picturesareme 

 

Isn't that used to placate those who get uppity when a snowy chart several days away is posted?

If it stops the mizzo's whining about how it won't come off and that it's not backed up by the ens, then a quick 'JFF' caveat is fine by me. 


Martin

Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)

A TWO addict since 14/12/01

"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."

Aneurin Bevan

picturesareme
23 October 2018 20:33:05

 

 

Isn't that used to placate those who get uppity when a snowy chart several days away is posted?

If it stops the mizzo's whining about how it won't come off and that it's not backed up by the ens, then a quick 'JFF' caveat is fine by me. 

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 

 

normally 10 days plus away

Gavin P
24 October 2018 10:08:04

 

 

Isn't that used to placate those who get uppity when a snowy chart several days away is posted?

If it stops the mizzo's whining about how it won't come off and that it's not backed up by the ens, then a quick 'JFF' caveat is fine by me. 

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 

 

And I also use "JFF" to soften the blow when I'm doing the CFS Six Month Look-Ahead and its showing six months of "blowtorch" conditions from November to April! 

 

I’m sure the term Brrrrrexit will be used at some stage in the next few weeks!

Originally Posted by: doctormog 

 

We'll deffo see that one if we have cold weather towards the end of March 2019. 


Rural West Northants 120m asl

Short, medium and long range weather forecast videos @ https://www.youtube.com/user/GavsWeatherVids

doctormog
24 October 2018 10:09:42

 

 

And I also use "JFF" to soften the blow when I'm doing the CFS Six Month Look-Ahead and its showing six months of "blowtorch" conditions from November to April! 

Originally Posted by: Gavin P 

That's not fun though Gavin. 


Gavin P
24 October 2018 10:12:22

 

That's not fun though Gavin. 

Originally Posted by: doctormog 

 

People's reactions are though! 


Rural West Northants 120m asl

Short, medium and long range weather forecast videos @ https://www.youtube.com/user/GavsWeatherVids

doctormog
24 October 2018 10:16:25

 

 

People's reactions are though! 

Originally Posted by: Gavin P 


Rob K
24 October 2018 10:20:32

I get annoyed by people who talk about the sun being too strong for proper snowfall once we get into early February. This year it was snowing hard with a temperature of -3C during the daytime in March!


Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

Retron
24 October 2018 10:49:23

I get annoyed by people who talk about the sun being too strong for proper snowfall once we get into early February. This year it was snowing hard with a temperature of -3C during the daytime in March!

Originally Posted by: Rob K 

Of course, it wasn't sunny when that snow was falling.

Get rid of the sun, via a nice overcast, and you can get your -2 or -3C daytime highs at the end of February. As soon as the sun comes out, though, drip.. drip.. drip..

The only way to avoid it is to get some really dry, deep cold air involved, i.e. dewpoints towards the minus double digits. That delays things somewhat, but is vanishingly rare down here.

Bear in mind as well that the spell at the end of Feb saw record-breakingly low thicknesses for the time of year!

 


Leysdown, north Kent
White Meadows
24 October 2018 10:51:15
The tiresome few on their soapbox every Christmas warning all model output is to be disregarded because of fewer commercial flights.
Retron
24 October 2018 10:56:42

The tiresome few on their soapbox every Christmas warning all model output is to be disregarded because of fewer commercial flights.

Originally Posted by: White Meadows 

Sorry that you find the truth tiresome. The loss of data results in a noticeable drop in the models' accuracy (as I've shown for a couple of years now), but feel free to ignore it. Indeed, that "ignore posts" button comes in handy, doesn't it?


Leysdown, north Kent
White Meadows
24 October 2018 11:07:03

 

Sorry that you find the truth tiresome. The loss of data results in a noticeable drop in the models' accuracy (as I've shown for a couple of years now), but feel free to ignore it. Indeed, that "ignore posts" button comes in handy, doesn't it?

Originally Posted by: Retron 

That’s what this thread is for right? A place to rant without reprimand. Yes -Tiresome and loathsome, the dramatising & exaggerations used to backup/ discount own personal hopes over the Christmas period.

JOHN NI
24 October 2018 11:19:32

The tiresome few on their soapbox every Christmas warning all model output is to be disregarded because of fewer commercial flights.

Originally Posted by: White Meadows 

You'd be surprised.  Transatlantic air traffic plays a big part in identifying/confirming or positioning jet streaks that can have significant knock-on effects on the model handling of developing storms. 


John.

The orange County of Armagh.

Retron
24 October 2018 11:20:32

That’s what this thread is for right? A place to rant without reprimand. Yes -Tiresome and loathsome, the dramatising & exaggerations used to backup/ discount own personal hopes over the Christmas period.

Originally Posted by: White Meadows 

A bit like your exaggeration that people say "all model output is to be discarded", you mean?

 


Leysdown, north Kent
ARTzeman
24 October 2018 11:34:57

Will it or Won't it.   Horrible Phrase... 




Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

I Just Blow my horn or trumpet

tallyho_83
24 October 2018 11:39:35

1. Stuck in the rut
2. Pest from the West
3. Showers turning wintry (Too vague!?) - What do they mean? Sleet, Snow, Soft Hail, Hail, Wet snow, Ice pellets or rain turning to sleet then snow? Showers Turning wintry could mean any of the above!? In North America they are far more specific and clear and would never use the term "Showers turning wintry!"


Home Location - Vixen Tor Close, Okehampton, Devon (221m ASL)


Sean Moon

Magical Moon

www.magical-moon.com

White Meadows
24 October 2018 11:49:26

 

A bit like your exaggeration that people say "all model output is to be discarded", you mean?

 

Originally Posted by: Retron 

They’re the worst ones yes. Not often but I’ve seen it.

Snow Hoper
24 October 2018 12:22:53

 

Of course, it wasn't sunny when that snow was falling.

Get rid of the sun, via a nice overcast, and you can get your -2 or -3C daytime highs at the end of February. As soon as the sun comes out, though, drip.. drip.. drip..

The only way to avoid it is to get some really dry, deep cold air involved, i.e. dewpoints towards the minus double digits. That delays things somewhat, but is vanishingly rare down here.

Bear in mind as well that the spell at the end of Feb saw record-breakingly low thicknesses for the time of year!

 

Originally Posted by: Retron 

You're probably screwed either way as you'll lose snow cover through sublimation anyway.


Going to war over religion is like killing each other to see who has the better imaginary friend.

Home : Mid Suffolk.

48m Asl

Chunky Pea
24 October 2018 14:01:06

1. Stuck in the rut
2. Pest from the West
3. Showers turning wintry (Too vague!?) - What do they mean? Sleet, Snow, Soft Hail, Hail, Wet snow, Ice pellets or rain turning to sleet then snow? Showers Turning wintry could mean any of the above!? In North America they are far more specific and clear and would never use the term "Showers turning wintry!"

Originally Posted by: tallyho_83 

I agree. 'Wintry showers' is a very vague term and doesn't really mean anything. Hail, for example, is not uncommon during big summer and autumn showers, so they are not just 'wintry'. 

'Thundery downpours' is another one that annoys the hell out of me. 


Patrick,

East Galway, Ireland.

tallyho_83
24 October 2018 15:36:54

 

I agree. 'Wintry showers' is a very vague term and doesn't really mean anything. Hail, for example, is not uncommon during big summer and autumn showers, so they are not just 'wintry'. 

'Thundery downpours' is another one that annoys the hell out of me. 

Originally Posted by: Chunky Pea 

 

Indeed! Another annoying one is "Showers may be wintry at times!"


Home Location - Vixen Tor Close, Okehampton, Devon (221m ASL)


Sean Moon

Magical Moon

www.magical-moon.com

moomin75
24 October 2018 15:47:41
Any terminology that moans at the Mooms!

All joking aside, I can’t stand the use of any premature WINTER IS OVER posts. Even though I have been as guilty as many of being unduly pessimistic. As last winter proved, it’s never too late in the tri-month period of DJF and even later for a beast to envelop us. You won’t be hearing pessimism from me this winter. What will be will be, but it appears we are in another “post modern” era where our weather is becoming increasingly interesting again.


Witney, Oxfordshire

100m ASL

Solar Cycles
24 October 2018 16:06:04

I’m all for cold and snow but what grates me is how some are just blinded by their lust for cold and snow, whilst intent on ignoring the bleedin obvious when the charts scream mild and wet then proclaiming them to be wrong but then disappear when it all goes t*ts up.

White Meadows
24 October 2018 18:30:39
Good to have a thread for folk to get things off their chest, even if some don’t understand the point.
nsrobins
24 October 2018 18:34:22
‘Interesting’

I use it all the time lol


Neil

Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)

Stormchaser, Member TORRO

richardabdn
24 October 2018 19:05:23

​Using the word warm instead of mild gets on my nerves. Mild means horrible and worthless temperatures that are not warm enough to feel pleasant or cold enough to give the scenes of beauty and inspiration associated with proper cold. There is nothing warm about a miserable UK winter.


Aberdeen: The only place that misses out on everything

2023 - The Year that's Constantly Worse than a Bad November

2024 - 2023 without the Good Bits

2025 - The Weekend Curse hell intensifies

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