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KevBrads1
24 November 2017 04:26:55


Junes with a CET of 16.0C or greater are frequently followed at the end of the year by a below average December. Stats quirk?


2003: 4.8


1976: 2.0


1970: 4.3


1960: 3.9


1950: 1.2


1940: 3.8


1896: 3.9


1858: 4.8


1846: 0.5


1826: 5.8


1822: 1.6


1818: 3.6


1798: 1.5


1786: 2.8


1785: 2.8


1781: 5.4


1775: 4.5


1772: 4.8


1762: 3.6


1728: 1.6


1726: 1.6


1707: 3.5


1676: -0.5


1672: 4.5


 


MANCHESTER SUMMER INDEX for 2021: 238
Timelapses, old weather forecasts and natural phenomena videos can be seen on this site
http://www.youtube.com/channel/UCgrSD1BwFz2feWDTydhpEhQ/playlists
ballamar
24 November 2017 07:59:10



Junes with a CET of 16.0C or greater are frequently followed at the end of the year by a below average December. Stats quirk?


2003: 4.8


1976: 2.0


1970: 4.3


1960: 3.9


1950: 1.2


1940: 3.8


1896: 3.9


1858: 4.8


1846: 0.5


1826: 5.8


1822: 1.6


1818: 3.6


1798: 1.5


1786: 2.8


1785: 2.8


1781: 5.4


1775: 4.5


1772: 4.8


1762: 3.6


1728: 1.6


1726: 1.6


1707: 3.5


1676: -0.5


1672: 4.5


 


Originally Posted by: KevBrads1 


 


tou mean there was a warm June in 1672 thought it was only warm for the last 30 years!

speckledjim
24 November 2017 08:08:15



Junes with a CET of 16.0C or greater are frequently followed at the end of the year by a below average December. Stats quirk?


2003: 4.8


1976: 2.0


1970: 4.3


1960: 3.9


1950: 1.2


1940: 3.8


1896: 3.9


1858: 4.8


1846: 0.5


1826: 5.8


1822: 1.6


1818: 3.6


1798: 1.5


1786: 2.8


1785: 2.8


1781: 5.4


1775: 4.5


1772: 4.8


1762: 3.6


1728: 1.6


1726: 1.6


1707: 3.5


1676: -0.5


1672: 4.5


 


Originally Posted by: KevBrads1 


22 out of 344 is hardly frequent - 6.4%


Thorner, West Yorkshire


Journalism is organised gossip
KevBrads1
24 November 2017 14:04:43


 


22 out of 344 is hardly frequent - 6.4%


Originally Posted by: speckledjim 


I point out I was referring to only the Junes with a CET of 16.0 or over and not the whole lot! 😆


MANCHESTER SUMMER INDEX for 2021: 238
Timelapses, old weather forecasts and natural phenomena videos can be seen on this site
http://www.youtube.com/channel/UCgrSD1BwFz2feWDTydhpEhQ/playlists
Bertwhistle
24 November 2017 18:37:16


 


2012 cold and wintery winter.. really?? 


Originally Posted by: picturesareme 


Clearly Andy's post referred to the winter following November 2012


Bertie, Itchen Valley.
Retire while you can still press the 'retire now' button.
Bertwhistle
24 November 2017 18:39:02


 


I point out I was referring to only the Junes with a CET of 16.0 or over and not the whole lot! 😆


Originally Posted by: KevBrads1 


Indeed; Jim will note that the % with reference to those 16C + Junes is much higher.


Bertie, Itchen Valley.
Retire while you can still press the 'retire now' button.
Gavin D
27 November 2017 11:29:14
Ian Fergusson‏

"W COUNTRY; latest 3-monthly probabilistic outlook from @metoffice: December likely (but not guaranteed) to be colder & drier v avg; rest of winter more likely to trend into wetter/milder territory, with a higher risk of heavy rain/windier episodes."
TomC
  • TomC
  • Advanced Member
27 November 2017 11:41:43

Ian Fergusson‏

"W COUNTRY; latest 3-monthly probabilistic outlook from @metoffice: December likely (but not guaranteed) to be colder & drier v avg; rest of winter more likely to trend into wetter/milder territory, with a higher risk of heavy rain/windier episodes."

Originally Posted by: Gavin D 


https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/mohippo/pdf/public-sector/forecast-temp-djf-v1.pdf


Gary L just pointed this link out to me. Sounds sensible but the Met O do seem to have  a very strong La-Nina signal in the forecast winter pattern

Andy J
29 November 2017 11:27:24

So here's my final prognosis on the coming Winter 2017/18.


Well it looks like we are heading for a cold start to Winter, but how long will that be sustained for? I’ll try to pin the answer down as best I can using the following indicators:


The current state and trend of ENSO, QBO and Solar cycle.
Autumn SLP anomalies
Atlantic SST Profile.
Also will focus on Autumns that have similar synoptic progressions through the second half of Autumn compared to Autumn 2017.

So starting with the years that are similar to 2017 in terms of the ENSO / QBO / Solar cycle combination to this year, we have:


1962, 1974, 1984, 1995, 1996, 2005, 2007


1983 is not a particularly close Solar Cycle match, but does have the best QBO match to 2017, so I will include that year too.


So the composite for these years gives us a cold UK Winter with anomalous High Pressure to the north/NE, and Low Pressure to the south and SW.


Autumn Pressure Anomalies:
October 2017 was a mild and dry month in the UK with a High Pressure anomaly just to our south. From the overall analogue years, 1962, 1984 and 2007 also matched to the October 2017 SLP anomalies. So for me this basically reinforces the idea of a cold, blocked Winter with High Pressure frequently located to the north/NE of us.


I then looked at Autumns that had a similar kind of synoptic evolution during the second half of the Autumn season, and in particular noted Autumns that had a lack of S/SE/E winds in November, and also had a repeating cycle of increasingly frequent and lengthy northwesterly spells associated with an expanding Greenland High. All these features that have occurred in Autumn 2017.


This is where it gets interesting!


I looked at all years since 1960, and found the following five Autumns that were similar in terms of the combination I mentioned:


1969, 1981, 1996, 2005, 2008.


All these Autumns were followed by a cold, if not very cold December, and indeed most of these Decembers had a significant wintry spell, tending to arrive between Christmas and New Year. Dec 1981 is the exception as that was severely cold and wintry for most of the month. 1981, 1996 and 2005 are particularly interesting because they are also ENSO & QBO matches for this year, although are a poorer Solar match.


So it does look like December 2017 will be a cold month, but the question then is, will the cold weather carry on for the rest of Winter? Well looking at the main ENSO/QBO/Solar analogues, that does seem to suggest cold conditions persisting right through the Winter with an anomalous easterly flow into the UK. However, factoring in the synoptic pattern established later this Autumn, (although this usually does favour a cold December, and indeed a cold start to January), the second half of these types of Winters tend to be milder and with no more than fleeting cold spells returning on the odd occasion. And furthermore, factoring in the current warm state of Atlantic SSTs may well add to the Atlantic influence later in the Winter. The fact also that 1981, 1996 and 2005 are the broadest matches in terms of recent synoptic developments and main indices, reinforces this idea even more.


So in summary then, my prognosis for Winter 2017/18 is:


December 2017: A mix of cold and milder spells initially, then a more significant and lengthy wintry spell later in the month, this more likely starting in the period between Christmas Day and the end of the month. A cold month overall, potentially very cold and wintry.


January 2018: A gradual easing of cold/wintry weather, leading to a milder second half, although still with the risk of a cold snap. Could still end up on the cold side overall, but probably close to average.


February 2018: The odd cold spell still possible, but more likely to be rather mild at times with an increasing Atlantic influence.


Winter overall: Rather cold. Wide variations in rainfall likely, but probably leaning towards being slightly below normal for the UK as a whole.


Gainsborough, Lincolnshire.
Gavin D
01 December 2017 15:24:06
TWO winter forecast online this weekend?
Gavin D
02 December 2017 17:11:11
seringador
03 December 2017 17:35:50
Hi,
Expecting a mild winter overall but with cold outbreaks during December an January. For February a mild snd stormy month for western europe and a cold one for eastern parts.
slightly below average in terms of number of days with >1mm rainfall but for some parts (Southwest) could have concentrated events with heavy rain that could trigger flashflooding and overall above accumulations.
March could be the best wintry month in terms of blocking patern...and cold spell.
Extremes
Max Temp: 40.2ºC (03.08.2018)
Min Temp: -1.1ºC ( 03.01.2021)
Porto 86m and Campeã 820m (Marão 1414m)
@planoclima
Stolen Snowman
04 December 2017 20:28:42

Some interesting winter forecasts now out and I thought I’d have another stab at one this year.


I’m no meteorologist, just an engineer so have no expectations that it will be accurate but rather for fun, it’s a way of betting on a horse in case it comes home...


Last year I went for a cold winter after Christmas based on some basic pattern matching. It was way out! 


This year I’ve become curious about this whole AMO thing and so set about comparing the unsmoothed data with winter CET’s. What’s interesting is that it can flip from positive to negative for a few months, against the overall index. 


The cold winters of 1947, 1951 and 1963 all occurred during a positive phase (in the case of 63 at the end of one) but all saw it briefly flip negative during the preceding late spring/ early summer.


The cold winters of the late 70s/80s occurred during an almost totally negative phase. However it’s not a cast iron indicator by far... 2014 and 2015 both flipped negative in the winter/early spring but the following winters were very mild.


So the forecast; I’m going to predict that as the AMO has stayed positive throughout 2016 and 2017 there will be no big freeze. December will bring the greatest chance of show between mid month and Christmas . After that into the new year it will turn much more stormy.


January will see a cold settled spell before it turns gradually milder and wetter. February will be mild and wet.


So let’s see if that verifies - though I really hope I’m wrong!! 


Statistics prove that the period just after records began witnessed some of the most extreme weather ever recorded. Records were being broken on a frequency that has not been repeated since.
Posting live from a pub somewhere in Burton upon Trent
KevBrads1
01 January 2018 18:04:21


Its only the start of January and already that forecast is in trouble. It hasn't been that stormy so far and doesn't look so for the first half of winter. 


MANCHESTER SUMMER INDEX for 2021: 238
Timelapses, old weather forecasts and natural phenomena videos can be seen on this site
http://www.youtube.com/channel/UCgrSD1BwFz2feWDTydhpEhQ/playlists

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