It certainly isn't the case down here, either! The back garden still has plenty of leaves on display, as do the trees at work and on the roads around here. And that's entirely normal - it's usually well into November before the majority of trees are bare. 

Similar here. Nothing out of the ordinary at all.

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Similar here. Nothing out of the ordinary at all.

 

It's only in the last few days   we have had any meaningful fall here.   Still a way to go and I would  say another 2-3 weeks until the trees are predominately bare - about normal IMHO

 

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I also think it's safe to say when the leaves fall has nothing to do with winter! It was last week in Nov 2010 when they fell here!

 

 

It's only in the last few days   we have had any meaningful fall here.   Still a way to go and I would  say another 2-3 weeks until the trees are predominately bare - about normal IMHO

 

A fair number of leaves from the trees around where I live came off during two particularly windy nights this month; ex-storm Oephelia on 16th/17th October plus another rather breezy evening we had at the start of the month. Quite a lot of them here were actually starting to wither noticeably as far back as late August, probably on account of the naff "summer" we had here.

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Yes Cohen heavily bought into the OPI theory along with Steve Murr a few winters back .However all things considered right now it would be a brave man to bet against his current analysis.

Evening Ian-

I think you will find that Cohen probably bought into it because it underpinned his commentary around the October +VE pressure anomaly around the Tamar peninsula in Russia ( So vis a vee a negative OPI profile was an identical match for his October 'ideal' )

The bottom line is there have been some spectacular fails over the last few years from pretty much every contributor on here ( of which I include myself )

• But I also include you with the modern Winter theory that doesn't work as proved in 09 & 10 - as you intimated we could never get proper cold synoptics again


• Then of course the many fails of the ECM monthly - that has been a running joke for the last 2 years


• You have the seasonal models that have been equally as useless ( with the exception of predicting the on-going warmth over the pole - for example last year take the JAMSTEC model missed the 15-20c negative departures over Russia in November


• The forecasts from certain quarters relating to the stratosphere & teleconnections - whilst good with a match to the AO, less so in the NAO- Although I do certainly see the ease with forecasting very Mild Decembers I very strong EL NINO December

 

So as the curtain raises on this Winter, as ever the form horse will be something around or just slightly above the long term seasonal Norm - this is particularly underpinned by the growing positive polar anomaly -  This will certainly modify any Cold airmass we bring in especially ones from the North- so we start from a disadvantaged point. Contrary to everything pointing to mild though to date no one has ever pinpointed a particular strong negative phase of the AO & NAO & as we head through late October we do have indicators that the overall zonal wind will be weaker than usual & prone to disturbances in the Easterly QBO phase & neutral NINA -

so on reflection I am ( as usual ) hopeful as well as optimistic of some opportunities for snow this Winter, maybe with some extra interest this year as ive moved to a part of NW kent that's @ around 160M with 230M just a mile away. The land is an old orchard so thus far has tracked about 2-3c colder at night than my previous location just 3m ASL & 200M from the thames at Greenhithe which always saw rain & sleet from anything other than Easterly set ups !

 

best

S

Well fair comment Steve and I'm glad to see NickL (Bluearmy) has also dusted himself off for the annual chase. The QBO interests me from a positive point of view and from a correlation point of view we haven't had a mild September and mild winters have often followed these in the modern era, though of course other factors are involved.

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Zakopane web cam showing some early season snow. 

https://zakopane.webcamera.pl/

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Zakopane web cam showing some early season snow. 

https://zakopane.webcamera.pl/

Hello Brian

Did you get my PM?

Regards.

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Well fair comment Steve and I'm glad to see NickL (Bluearmy) has also dusted himself off for the annual chase. The QBO interests me from a positive point of view and from a correlation point of view we haven't had a mild September and mild winters have often followed these in the modern era, though of course other factors are involved.

seems to be more dust with each passing year - must get to the gym!

anyway, there are reasons for coldies to be hopeful - the much maligned ec 46 delivers av to below T2 out to week 7 and heights to our south are not progged to be anomalously high (although the norm is too high for winter here). nothing to be gleaned from one run but the extended gfs runs continue to bring the jet south into our part of the NH and promote Aleutian upper ridges.  whilst nothing particularly noteworthy to hang your hats on the modelling seems to offer more promise than the telecons and various theories (as has been the case past few winters).

i'm fairly open minded as to the possibilities of a wintry end to November/start to december

 

Evening Ian-

I think you will find that Cohen probably bought into it because it underpinned his commentary around the October +VE pressure anomaly around the Tamar peninsula in Russia ( So vis a vee a negative OPI profile was an identical match for his October 'ideal' )

The bottom line is there have been some spectacular fails over the last few years from pretty much every contributor on here ( of which I include myself )

• But I also include you with the modern Winter theory that doesn't work as proved in 09 & 10 - as you intimated we could never get proper cold synoptics again


• Then of course the many fails of the ECM monthly - that has been a running joke for the last 2 years


• You have the seasonal models that have been equally as useless ( with the exception of predicting the on-going warmth over the pole - for example last year take the JAMSTEC model missed the 15-20c negative departures over Russia in November


• The forecasts from certain quarters relating to the stratosphere & teleconnections - whilst good with a match to the AO, less so in the NAO- Although I do certainly see the ease with forecasting very Mild Decembers I very strong EL NINO December

 

So as the curtain raises on this Winter, as ever the form horse will be something around or just slightly above the long term seasonal Norm - this is particularly underpinned by the growing positive polar anomaly -  This will certainly modify any Cold airmass we bring in especially ones from the North- so we start from a disadvantaged point. Contrary to everything pointing to mild though to date no one has ever pinpointed a particular strong negative phase of the AO & NAO & as we head through late October we do have indicators that the overall zonal wind will be weaker than usual & prone to disturbances in the Easterly QBO phase & neutral NINA -

so on reflection I am ( as usual ) hopeful as well as optimistic of some opportunities for snow this Winter, maybe with some extra interest this year as ive moved to a part of NW kent that's @ around 160M with 230M just a mile away. The land is an old orchard so thus far has tracked about 2-3c colder at night than my previous location just 3m ASL & 200M from the thames at Greenhithe which always saw rain & sleet from anything other than Easterly set ups !

 

best

S

Good to see you posting again Steve. 

You're quite right in that neither model nor man has covered themselves with any glory over the years, so until we can grasp the many variables involved then long range forecasting will always remain a challenge and probably one which will never be overcome. 

For this winter I’m keeping an eye out on the Pacific Ocean around NW Canada and events in the equatorial region, we need to see those colder waters around the NW deepen as we head into the winter whilst Nina conditions remain weakish. I was hoping we’d start seeing a - NAO being modelled in the outer reaches of FI but that appears to be  non starter thus far so some form of zonailty looks likely as we head into the second half of November.

If we were going to choose some parameters to favour a colder winter for the UK, we would probably choose a neutral-ish ENSO, easterly QBO. For my location it's also been a warm and dry October so I can throw that one in too! I'm not so familiar with the sea surface temperature anomalies, but there surely must be some hope for this winter?

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Found a possibly interesting correlation with "strength" of eQBO in the Autumn, and the following Winter weather patterns.

I decided to run a composite for three types of QBO.  In each category I used years that began with a west-based QBO as we've had this year.  

1)  Years that trended to a weak eQBO (0 to -10) into the Autumn   (Years 1981, 1976, 1967, 1986)

2)  Years that trended to a moderate eQBO (-10 to -20)    (Years 2009, 2000, 1991, 1962)

3)  Years that trended to a strong eQBO (below -20)     (Years 2014, 1979, 1972, 2007)

So I found that for the weak to moderate Autumn eQBO's, the composite for the Winter pattern shows a significant High Pressure anomaly over Greenland and to the north of the UK, with Low Pressure more a feature to the south, resulting in a cold/snowy Winter set up.  1991/92 is the only Winter that fails the test, but even this Winter produced some severe cold in the early part of Winter.

But surprisingly, the years that trended to a strong Autumn eQBO led to strongly zonal and mild Winters, in fact the complete opposite to the effect of a weak/moderate eQBO!    

I also noticed that in years that started with a wQBO, and progressed to a strong Autumn eQBO, there was a rapid transition during the following Winter back to neutral/weak eQBO and into wQBO territory by soon after Winter.   The only example I can find of a strong Autumn eQBO lasting into the Winter was in 2014/15, and that was a strongly zonal Winter!

Now interestingly, 2017 so far seems to be going down the moderate eQBO route, and normally by now if it was going to be strong, we would have already seen very low figures being returned on the QBO index (sub -20).   Years that develop a moderate eQBO in the Autumn tend to stick with that through the Winter, so it does look like that the Winter 2017/18 will have a much better chance than normal of developing a colder snowier regime.  Not a guarantee of course, as 1991/92 has shown, but clearly is a good sign for cold.

 

 

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Kopaonik ski resort in Serbia enjoying good snow cover for time of year. 23cm now but had 38cm start of week; Cold:

http://www.infokop.net/info/ski-kamere-2.html 

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Found a possibly interesting correlation with "strength" of eQBO in the Autumn, and the following Winter weather patterns.

I decided to run a composite for three types of QBO.  In each category I used years that began with a west-based QBO as we've had this year.  

1)  Years that trended to a weak eQBO (0 to -10) into the Autumn   (Years 1981, 1976, 1967, 1986)

2)  Years that trended to a moderate eQBO (-10 to -20)    (Years 2009, 2000, 1991, 1962)

3)  Years that trended to a strong eQBO (below -20)     (Years 2014, 1979, 1972, 2007)

So I found that for the weak to moderate Autumn eQBO's, the composite for the Winter pattern shows a significant High Pressure anomaly over Greenland and to the north of the UK, with Low Pressure more a feature to the south, resulting in a cold/snowy Winter set up.  1991/92 is the only Winter that fails the test, but even this Winter produced some severe cold in the early part of Winter.

But surprisingly, the years that trended to a strong Autumn eQBO led to strongly zonal and mild Winters, in fact the complete opposite to the effect of a weak/moderate eQBO!    

I also noticed that in years that started with a wQBO, and progressed to a strong Autumn eQBO, there was a rapid transition during the following Winter back to neutral/weak eQBO and into wQBO territory by soon after Winter.   The only example I can find of a strong Autumn eQBO lasting into the Winter was in 2014/15, and that was a strongly zonal Winter!

Now interestingly, 2017 so far seems to be going down the moderate eQBO route, and normally by now if it was going to be strong, we would have already seen very low figures being returned on the QBO index (sub -20).   Years that develop a moderate eQBO in the Autumn tend to stick with that through the Winter, so it does look like that the Winter 2017/18 will have a much better chance than normal of developing a colder snowier regime.  Not a guarantee of course, as 1991/92 has shown, but clearly is a good sign for cold.

 

 

Good work Andy. Maybe the sample size is too small to have much confidence but the results are interesting.

I must admit I alighted on 1962 for reasons that escape me.....  

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Had me already dribbling at "1981".

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Interesting Andy but we have seen before that analogues are less reliable indicators in the modern era.

 

 

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Interesting Andy but we have seen before that analogues are less reliable indicators in the modern era.

 

 

Has there been a period of time when analogues were more reliable?

For my location we had a series of winters that delivered good snow almost every year from 2003-2013 and then 4 almost snowless winters since then, so at what point did the modern era start?

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For what its worth here is the snow cover chart at 0z on 1 Nov

Fairly extensive cover. Some say that the extent of snow across Scandinavia at the end of October can be an important factor in the extent of cold in NW Europe during the winter. Of course it is never as simple as that. But the snow cover at present across Scandinavia is quite impressive. Only southern parts of Sweden are snow free

http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/surface/snowNESDISnh.gif

Found a possibly interesting correlation with "strength" of eQBO in the Autumn, and the following Winter weather patterns.

I decided to run a composite for three types of QBO.  In each category I used years that began with a west-based QBO as we've had this year.  

1)  Years that trended to a weak eQBO (0 to -10) into the Autumn   (Years 1981, 1976, 1967, 1986)

2)  Years that trended to a moderate eQBO (-10 to -20)    (Years 2009, 2000, 1991, 1962)

3)  Years that trended to a strong eQBO (below -20)     (Years 2014, 1979, 1972, 2007)

So I found that for the weak to moderate Autumn eQBO's, the composite for the Winter pattern shows a significant High Pressure anomaly over Greenland and to the north of the UK, with Low Pressure more a feature to the south, resulting in a cold/snowy Winter set up.  1991/92 is the only Winter that fails the test, but even this Winter produced some severe cold in the early part of Winter.

But surprisingly, the years that trended to a strong Autumn eQBO led to strongly zonal and mild Winters, in fact the complete opposite to the effect of a weak/moderate eQBO!    

I also noticed that in years that started with a wQBO, and progressed to a strong Autumn eQBO, there was a rapid transition during the following Winter back to neutral/weak eQBO and into wQBO territory by soon after Winter.   The only example I can find of a strong Autumn eQBO lasting into the Winter was in 2014/15, and that was a strongly zonal Winter!

Now interestingly, 2017 so far seems to be going down the moderate eQBO route, and normally by now if it was going to be strong, we would have already seen very low figures being returned on the QBO index (sub -20).   Years that develop a moderate eQBO in the Autumn tend to stick with that through the Winter, so it does look like that the Winter 2017/18 will have a much better chance than normal of developing a colder snowier regime.  Not a guarantee of course, as 1991/92 has shown, but clearly is a good sign for cold. 

Andy

What figures are you using for the QBO? I don't follow some of your analysis. For example the QBO in autumn 1962 was massively negative, it reached -31 in October which is not what your analysis above says. It looks like you may have used data at the 40hPa level whereas the standard QBO figures are taken using the 30hPa data which is quite different.

For what its worth here is the snow cover chart at 0z on 1 Nov

Fairly extensive cover. Some say that the extent of snow across Scandinavia at the end of October can be an important factor in the extent of cold in NW Europe during the winter. Of course it is never as simple as that. But the snow cover at present across Scandinavia is quite impressive. Only southern parts of Sweden are snow free

http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/surface/snowNESDISnh.gif

Indeed https://climate.rutgers.edu/snowcover/chart_daily.php?ui_year=2017&ui_day=305&ui_set=2 

Whether it has any impact on our winter remains to be seen.

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