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Brian Gaze
24 September 2017 15:06:07


 


 Is that a sneak preview of your winter forecast? 


Originally Posted by: doctormog 


Actually at this stage I think the prospects for the coming winter are relatively interesting.  


Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Retron
24 September 2017 15:13:34


Actually at this stage I think the prospects for the coming winter are relatively interesting.  


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


After several boring, virtually snowless winters in a row down here it's about time we had something interesting!


That said, I remember all the excitement last year with the snowcover watch to the east (albeit not as exciting as the October index thingy a few years back) - I remember the cold setting in over to the NE and of course it all got swept away.


I'll be keeping an eye out for an easterly this year, as ever. As you'll recall, I made a long post last winter two winters ago about the "death of the midwinter easterly". I'd love nothing more than to have to rewrite that after this winter!


https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twocommunity/default.aspx?g=posts&t=15841


was the link, in case anyone is interested. It fits in with the "modern winter" stuff (which really winds some people up, for reasons I've never really worked out - something has changed since 2005, IMO, if not earlier).


Leysdown, north Kent
David M Porter
24 September 2017 15:15:10


 


Because "new members" are almost always retreads. What I will probably do is set up a link where people can request membership if they are genuinely interested. I will ask for a "proper" email account and username, and consider applications individually.


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


Sounds like a sensible way forward to me, Brian.


At least by setting up such a procedure, there would be some way of sorting out those who are joining for the right reasons from the spammers & trolls. The only issue with having new user registrations de-activated for long periods of time is that some people out there who may be genuine potential new members are blocked from being able to join.


Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
Shropshire
24 September 2017 15:42:11


 


After several boring, virtually snowless winters in a row down here it's about time we had something interesting!


That said, I remember all the excitement last year with the snowcover watch to the east (albeit not as exciting as the October index thingy a few years back) - I remember the cold setting in over to the NE and of course it all got swept away.


I'll be keeping an eye out for an easterly this year, as ever. As you'll recall, I made a long post last winter two winters ago about the "death of the midwinter easterly". I'd love nothing more than to have to rewrite that after this winter!


https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twocommunity/default.aspx?g=posts&t=15841


was the link, in case anyone is interested. It fits in with the "modern winter" stuff (which really winds some people up, for reasons I've never really worked out - something has changed since 2005, IMO, if not earlier).


Originally Posted by: Retron 


 



From December 27th 2020, zonality will be banned from mixing with the UK. We appreciate that this may come as a shock to younger people and old Uncle Barty. This ban will last for a minimum of ten days.
Whether Idle
24 September 2017 16:16:40


everyone now walks on very thin ice. 


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


Last winter the standout was a 2 week frigid frosty spell in this area, with ice from the top to the bottom of the horse troughs, and dew ponds where you could have skated.  The 2 sleety showers have been consigned to the mental dustbin.


There is a time for optimism regarding the winter that is ahead of us: now is the time, before the long fetch south-westerlies set in, or the limpet high over Shannon.  There is a space, between now and December, where we can dream of easterlies or Arctic northerlies.


For some, the chance of just being able to walk on a puddle with very thin ice would be a rare pleasure.


Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.
Solar Cycles
24 September 2017 16:38:27


 


'Two full moons in a month indicate a wet month'


I needn't read any more if I'm brutally honest 😉


Originally Posted by: nsrobins 

I only saw cold and snow the rest of his forecast I ignored.😁

Brian Gaze
24 September 2017 16:48:18

Whilst on the subject of walking on thin ice please remember that I'll treat "baiting" in the same way as "trolling". That is account deletion. 


Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Solar Cycles
24 September 2017 16:50:40


Whilst on the subject of walking on thin ice please remember that I'll treat "baiting" in the same way as "trolling". That is account deletion. 


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

My last post certainly wasn’t???

David M Porter
24 September 2017 18:02:56


 


 


I've no intention of doing that Doc, Jayni just wanted an explanation of the modern era.


But I do thing it's important that if we do have another mild one, we don't see it in isolation, the stats are rather too ominous to ignore. 


 


Originally Posted by: Shropshire 


Ian, you spent pretty much the entirety of your original spell here (before 2009 or thenabouts) on TWO telling us that the cold winters we saw pre-1988 were virtually a thing of the past, and that because of what you call the "modern era" such spells or prolonged and sometimes severe cold couldn't happen again in the UK.


What the events of winter 2009/10, December 2010 and even winter 2012/13 all showed to me was just how wrong that view was. What I would be interested to know, is did you forecast each of those winters to be either mild or very mild? Knowing your forecasting history I wouldn't be at all surprised if you did.


Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
johncs2016
24 September 2017 19:23:43
What I've been noticing recently is that we usually tend to get at least one colder than average month during the summer and/or autumn months but in the end, it always warms up in time for the winter. To an extent, this has already happened with August having a cooler than average CET and last year, it was November which was colder than average (indeed, that was the coldest November since 2010) although despite being so close to the start of winter, there wasn't really any snow with that.

This month's CET has also been running colder than average during this month so far, but it has warmed up a bit during the last day or so, and it wouldn't surprise me if that now ends up being the start of the usual big warm-up which then takes us through the winter with colder conditions not returning again until next spring/summer. The developing La Nina could also scupper our chances of cold weather as well, especially if it gets a bit stronger than expected (at one point in time, we hadn't even expected a La Nina and everyone at that time thought that there would be an El Nino and possibly a strong at that).

So, I don't have any doubts about it being yet another mild weather based on what recent years have been like, and the only question mark in my book is whether it will be a dry and high pressure dominated winter like last year, or a wet and stormy one like what we had in the year before that. At the moment, the models seem to be swinging towards a wet and stormy scenario. Furthermore, we are also going through a run of winters where every second winter has been really wet and stormy and if that continues for this year as well, this coming winter will also be a wet and stormy one.

Personally, I would love to see a cold winter and there will eventually come a time when we will get one, or possibly even two really cold winters in succession. However, I am struggling at the moment to see that actually happening, at least until we get onto the other side of the upcoming solar minimum in a few years' time.

The north of Edinburgh, usually always missing out on snow events which occur not just within the rest of Scotland or the UK, but also within the rest of Edinburgh.
Jonesy
25 September 2017 08:38:49

The only good thing that comes from a mild winter is the reduced heating bills and not having to wrap up like a stuffed Turkey to walk to the pub...... Never trust leaving my coat hanging up in a public house!


Halloween through till Bonfire night Misty Mild Gunk ruining firework night for many, Then I have a feeling that from Mid Autumn we will be plagued by cool winds from the N/NE/E but by the start of Winter we'll lose these to a more milder direction...just a hunch and what my Pyracanthra bushes are telling me!!


 


Gusty - You should of done that LRF in the hot tub yesterday 


Medway Towns (Kent)
The Weather will do what it wants, when it wants, no matter what data is thrown at it !
Saint Snow
25 September 2017 09:20:31


was the link, in case anyone is interested. It fits in with the "modern winter" stuff (which really winds some people up, for reasons I've never really worked out - something has changed since 2005, IMO, if not earlier).


Originally Posted by: Retron 


 


It winds people up because it's such a short time sample that it's meaningless - and the suspicion is that the originator of the saying uses it to bait people in a "Ha! Ha! You're not going to get snow so [blows raspberry] to you"


FWIW, the period 2008/9 to 2012/13 contained three of the best winters of my 45 years (including two consecutive Xmas periods with thick snow on the ground). If that's how modern winters will pan out, then sign me up.


I'd take 2005-2016 over many winter periods - especially 1988-1999, which was bloody awful for snow IMBY.



Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
Charmhills
25 September 2017 10:07:45


Whilst on the subject of walking on thin ice please remember that I'll treat "baiting" in the same way as "trolling". That is account deletion. 


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 



A nice clean winter ahead hopefully but without the silly nonsense we usually get.


Loughborough, EM.

Knowledge is power, ignorance is weakness.

Duane.
Gavin P
25 September 2017 10:11:12


One of our members only remains here because a for loop timed out before it completed account deletion. Due to that extraordinary stroke of luck I decided to leave his account for now, albeit with a reduced number of historic posts. As we aren't accepting new members everyone now walks on very thin ice. 


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 



Rural West Northants 120m asl
Short, medium and long range weather forecast videos @ https://www.youtube.com/user/GavsWeatherVids
Saint Snow
25 September 2017 12:00:20

Mount Agung in Indonesia set to blow. Anyone know if this fella has a super-eruption in it?


https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/sep/24/bali-volcano-34000-flee-mount-agung-as-tremors-intensify


 



Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
doctormog
25 September 2017 12:06:59


Mount Agung in Indonesia set to blow. Anyone know if this fella has a super-eruption in it?


https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/sep/24/bali-volcano-34000-flee-mount-agung-as-tremors-intensify


 


Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 


I doubt it from what I have read. It erupted in 1963/4 but that was “only” VEI 5. I’m not sure there is much evidence of anything significantly larger historically (or climatically) but I will have a bit more of a look. 


Edit: Interestingly a brief search in the academic literature suggests that the 1963 eruption, albeit comparatively small, seemed to have a significant impact on global temperatures (to a similiar magnitude to the much more significant Krakatoa and Tambora eruptions!)


http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/0033589482900655 


Gooner
25 September 2017 13:01:30


 


 


It winds people up because it's such a short time sample that it's meaningless - and the suspicion is that the originator of the saying uses it to bait people in a "Ha! Ha! You're not going to get snow so [blows raspberry] to you"


FWIW, the period 2008/9 to 2012/13 contained three of the best winters of my 45 years (including two consecutive Xmas periods with thick snow on the ground). If that's how modern winters will pan out, then sign me up.


I'd take 2005-2016 over many winter periods - especially 1988-1999, which was bloody awful for snow IMBY.


Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 


Totally agree Saint , 2005 - 2016 were good years ..................zillion times better than 88 - 99


Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Retron
25 September 2017 16:55:07


Totally agree Saint , 2005 - 2016 were good years ..................zillion times better than 88 - 99


Originally Posted by: Gooner 


No midwinter easterlies = no powder snow, no icicles etc here.


The 88-99 period saw "the wrong kind of snow" (and over a foot of poweder here) in 91, as well as the surprise November 93 snow (6 inches), along with 95/6 and 96/7, the last midwinter easterly and the last time icicles were seen here. Let's not forget, either, that December 95 equalled the all-time UK record low.


IF you rely on easterlies to get decent snow, as I do, everything post January 1997 (with the possible exception of the slushy late Feb 2005) was utter rubbish in comparison.


Leysdown, north Kent
TomC
  • TomC
  • Advanced Member
25 September 2017 17:28:52


 


I doubt it from what I have read. It erupted in 1963/4 but that was “only” VEI 5. I’m not sure there is much evidence of anything significantly larger historically (or climatically) but I will have a bit more of a look. 


Edit: Interestingly a brief search in the academic literature suggests that the 1963 eruption, albeit comparatively small, seemed to have a significant impact on global temperatures (to a similiar magnitude to the much more significant Krakatoa and Tambora eruptions!)


http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/0033589482900655 


Originally Posted by: doctormog 


 


Tropical eruptions that reach the stratosphere do produce global cooling but tend to favour mild wet winters in western Europe with cool wet summers too.

Gooner
25 September 2017 18:01:22

Fair point Darren but as most winter fans I was talking IMBY 


Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Gusty
25 September 2017 19:23:18

The death of the midwinter easterly is the measure of proper snow down here. Its been so long since we've had one that I suspect any cold weather fan under the age of 30 would not realise just what they are capable of.


Icicles, powder snow, dark grey/ orangy skies interspersed by days of alpine blue ones. Canals frozen deep, compacted snow on the footways turned grey through pedestrian usage.


Daytime maxes of -5c (23f)..mins below -10c (14f)..all such a long time ago now but were once far more regular.


Excitement regarding winter potential has receded year on year for me in recent years..the whole watching and waiting becomes tiresome. Its enough to turn you into a mildy. That way you can no longer get disappointed. 


Steve - Folkestone, Kent
Current conditions from my Davis Vantage Vue
https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/IFOLKE11 
Join Kent Weather on Facebook.
https://www.facebook.com/stevewall69/ 



scillydave
25 September 2017 20:16:09


Excitement regarding winter potential has receded year on year for me in recent years..the whole watching and waiting becomes tiresome. Its enough to turn you into a mildy. That way you can no longer get disappointed. 


Originally Posted by: Gusty 


Steady Steve, this is how it all starts, you begin by thinking maybe I'm better off as a mildly and the next thing you know you're scanning the charts for a southerly feed in January whilst wetting your pants over a cheeky damp grey grizzly 16c in mid December.  It's not somewhere anyone wants you to go mate - step back from the mild side. You know there's always help out there if you need it, we're a supportive community - Bjorli can live stream through the winter if we get another 1989 and there's always the Stelvio pass Web Cam if you need a quick fix. Stay true - winter is coming.


Currently living at roughly 65m asl North of Cowbridge in the Vale of Glamorgan.

Formerly of, Birdlip, highest village in the Cotswolds and snow heaven in winter; Hawkinge in Kent - roof of the South downs and Isles of Scilly, paradise in the UK.
Gusty
25 September 2017 21:08:05


 Steady Steve, this is how it all starts, you begin by thinking maybe I'm better off as a mildly and the next thing you know you're scanning the charts for a southerly feed in January whilst wetting your pants over a cheeky damp grey grizzly 16c in mid December.  It's not somewhere anyone wants you to go mate - step back from the mild side. You know there's always help out there if you need it, we're a supportive community - Bjorli can live stream through the winter if we get another 1989 and there's always the Stelvio pass Web Cam if you need a quick fix. Stay true - winter is coming.


Originally Posted by: scillydave 


 Thanks for the support Dave. Together as a community we must keep the faith.  


Steve - Folkestone, Kent
Current conditions from my Davis Vantage Vue
https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/IFOLKE11 
Join Kent Weather on Facebook.
https://www.facebook.com/stevewall69/ 



Andy Woodcock
25 September 2017 22:10:29


 


 


Tropical eruptions that reach the stratosphere do produce global cooling but tend to favour mild wet winters in western Europe with cool wet summers too.


Originally Posted by: TomC 


Makes you wonder how the hell you can ever get a cold winter in western Europe as most things El Nina,  El Nino, Volcanic eruptions etc favour a mild winter!


Yet they do occur but no one ever sees them coming, strange that.


Andy


Andy Woodcock
Penrith
Cumbria

Altitude 535 feet

"Why are the British so worried about climate change? Any change to their climate can only be an improvement" John Daley 2001
KevBrads1
26 September 2017 03:05:13


 


 


Tropical eruptions that reach the stratosphere do produce global cooling but tend to favour mild wet winters in western Europe with cool wet summers too.


Originally Posted by: TomC 


Has anyone studied how much impact the 2009 Sarychev eruption had on the following seasons? Winter 2009-10 was the coldest for 31 years at least for the CET, the northerly blocking during 2010 was strong. The volcanic sunsets it produced were stunning.


MANCHESTER SUMMER INDEX for 2021: 238
Timelapses, old weather forecasts and natural phenomena videos can be seen on this site
http://www.youtube.com/channel/UCgrSD1BwFz2feWDTydhpEhQ/playlists

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