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Retron
26 September 2017 05:39:35


The death of the midwinter easterly is the measure of proper snow down here. Its been so long since we've had one that I suspect any cold weather fan under the age of 30 would not realise just what they are capable of.


Icicles, powder snow, dark grey/ orangy skies interspersed by days of alpine blue ones. Canals frozen deep, compacted snow on the footways turned grey through pedestrian usage.


Originally Posted by: Gusty 


I'd imagine we'll never see those orangey skies again - as that would surely have been reflected streetlights. These days the lights seem to be pink or white rather than orange, so I'm guessing we'd get an ominous white glow instead! (And yes, I'd love to put the theory to the test).


As for your under 30 comment, that's a good one IMO. I remember the infamous "blue suns" on the BBC weather and it's been a long time since they, or their modern equivalent, appeared down here. The odd few ice days since the 90s have invariably been due to cloud blocking the sun rather than deep cold advection from the east, so as soon as the sun comes out - bam, temperatures shoot above freezing.



(This screencap is from the end of the Feb 86 cold spell.)


As for chasing the cold, I admit it does get a bit tiresome these days - the pattern of a slight hope (a smattering of -10s at 850) invariably warms up before the time, or the just-about-snowbearing -7s end up as cold rain -5s. I won't stop the chase, for it's part of winter for me, but it has lost its lustre somewhat since 2005.


Talking of which, I think it was Justin W who posted a few years back. He said that Philip Eden, back in 2005 as the easterly was unfolding, said to him to make the most of it as he might not see another. 12 years on and he's been right so far!


I'm sure we will see another midwinter easterly one day (and it wouldn't surprise me if it turned out to be 2 or 3 winters in a row with one), but the way things are going I wonder if it'll be in my lifetime!


 


Leysdown, north Kent
RJBingham
26 September 2017 07:07:31

Don't know if this adds anything?


 


Bali volcano: Here's why the Earth will get a little cooler after Mount Agung erupts


 


 


http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-09-26/how-volcanic-eruptions-can-affect-world-temperatures-mount-agung/8987770


 


 

Brian Gaze
26 September 2017 07:18:48


 


No midwinter easterlies = no powder snow, no icicles etc here.


The 88-99 period saw "the wrong kind of snow" (and over a foot of poweder here) in 91, as well as the surprise November 93 snow (6 inches), along with 95/6 and 96/7, the last midwinter easterly and the last time icicles were seen here. Let's not forget, either, that December 95 equalled the all-time UK record low.


IF you rely on easterlies to get decent snow, as I do, everything post January 1997 (with the possible exception of the slushy late Feb 2005) was utter rubbish in comparison.


Originally Posted by: Retron 


Whilst I don't disagree with what you have said in my experience winter 2009/10 in the Chilterns was as good as anything in York (where I lived) during the 1970s and 80s. Although I'm only about 70 miles away from where your patch it seems as though the winters have been significantly different to the south east of London. 


Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
26 September 2017 09:17:40


 


Whilst I don't disagree with what you have said in my experience winter 2009/10 in the Chilterns was as good as anything in York (where I lived) during the 1970s and 80s. Although I'm only about 70 miles away from where your patch it seems as though the winters have been significantly different to the south east of London. 


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


I sympathise with Retron. We moved to Chichester from Kent in 2002 and since then the only really deep powder snow with brilliant blue skies was Dec 2010 - and it lasted 3 days before melting. In the years before that, there was usually some snow somewhere nearby, though you often had to go up on the Downs to find any depth or persistence. Since 2010, virtually nothing.


War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
Solar Cycles
26 September 2017 09:33:48


 


Has anyone studied how much impact the 2009 Sarychev eruption had on the following seasons? Winter 2009-10 was the coldest for 31 years at least for the CET, the northerly blocking during 2010 was strong. The volcanic sunsets it produced were stunning.


Originally Posted by: KevBrads1 

Im not sure if its the locale of volcanic eruptions that  plays a part Kev?

Gavin P
26 September 2017 10:21:03

Wasn't there 2-3 high latitude eruptions during 2009/2010?


I remember B'astardi (when he was still at Accuweather) saying these eruptions did have an affect on the blocking/cold weather that occurred during 2009/2010 but I wasn't convinced really - Remember Winter 08/09 started the run of colder winters, before any high latitude eruptions and arguably the pattern really started to shift in to a long term blocked set-up during the Summer of 2007,


It may have played a part but I suspect the protracted solar minimum was probably a more important factor.


Rural West Northants 120m asl
Short, medium and long range weather forecast videos @ https://www.youtube.com/user/GavsWeatherVids
picturesareme
26 September 2017 10:30:41


Wasn't there 2-3 high latitude eruptions during 2009/2010?


I remember B'astardi (when he was still at Accuweather) saying these eruptions did have an affect on the blocking/cold weather that occurred during 2009/2010 but I wasn't convinced really - Remember Winter 08/09 started the run of colder winters, before any high latitude eruptions and arguably the pattern really started to shift in to a long term blocked set-up during the Summer of 2007,


It may have played a part but I suspect the protracted solar minimum was probably a more important factor.


Originally Posted by: Gavin P 


Summer of 2008 saw a massive eruption of one of the Alaskan islands. 

Gavin P
26 September 2017 10:58:17


 


Summer of 2008 saw a massive eruption of one of the Alaskan islands. 


Originally Posted by: picturesareme 


Oh right I wasn't aware of that.


Were there any high latitude eruptions before Summer 2007? Because that's where I always see the pattern shift to blocking starting (albeit Winter 07/08 still managed to stay mild - Probably due to La Nina more than anything else)


Rural West Northants 120m asl
Short, medium and long range weather forecast videos @ https://www.youtube.com/user/GavsWeatherVids
Tim A
26 September 2017 11:02:20
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/archive/2010/noaa/NOAA_1_2010120118_1.png . That chart is amazing. with a foot widely in Yorkshire.  The NE Midlands was buried with up to a metre.  Intense snowfall from the east. The second half of December, whilst cold was more boring here with only a small amount of snow.
The amount of snowfall that fell in early 2013 was amazing. Without checking my records, I think I recorded about 80cm. I was skiing on Good Friday near Halifax.

Since then its been marginal and wet snowfalls only with very little on low ground. 2013/14 was the first snowless winter I have recorded.



Tim
NW Leeds
187m asl

 My PWS 
Gavin P
26 September 2017 11:10:08


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/archive/2010/noaa/NOAA_1_2010120118_1.png . That chart is amazing. with a foot widely in Yorkshire.  The NE Midlands was buried with up to a metre.  Intense snowfall from the east. The second half of December, whilst cold was more boring here with only a small amount of snow.
The amount of snowfall that fell in early 2013 was amazing. Without checking my records, I think I recorded about 80cm. I was skiing on Good Friday near Halifax.

Since then its been marginal and wet snowfalls only with very little on low ground. 2013/14 was the first snowless winter I have recorded.



Originally Posted by: Tim A 


I think your right.


2008/2009 to 2012/2013 was an extraordinary run of cold/snowy winters for the majority of the UK (with a respite for 2011/2012) albeit a few places got unlucky and didn't have any severe snow/cold - Still given the relentless warm winters before and what's happened since 2013/2014 I think most people should feel very lucky to have experienced such a run of winters.


Who knows if we'll ever see a run like this again in our lifetimes...


Rural West Northants 120m asl
Short, medium and long range weather forecast videos @ https://www.youtube.com/user/GavsWeatherVids
Puppies444
26 September 2017 11:53:43


 


I think your right.


2008/2009 to 2012/2013 was an extraordinary run of cold/snowy winters for the majority of the UK (with a respite for 2011/2012) albeit a few places got unlucky and didn't have any severe snow/cold - Still given the relentless warm winters before and what's happened since 2013/2014 I think most people should feel very lucky to have experienced such a run of winters.


Who knows if we'll ever see a run like this again in our lifetimes...


Originally Posted by: Gavin P 


 


Can only liaise with this .. although I do admit this whole topic is very much an 'IMBY' scenario. 


2008-09 and 2009-10 were both exceptional for me with both Winters most definitely meeting or beating Winters in the 70s/80s. 


2010-11 and 2012-13 were a bit less exceptional snow wise but temperature wise still fantastic. 


 


But in any given cold Winter whether it's one of the above mentioned or one from the 80s, the 60s or the 1800s, there will always be a few locations that missed out. Maybe 62/63 was an exception

tallyho_83
26 September 2017 13:03:04

Anything will be far better than the bore-fest benign weather during the of 2016/17 with constant model flips and downgrades. At least winter 2014/15 and 2015/16 we had squally hailstorms, soft hail and sleet showers and more. What I notice is that our Decembers are becoming milder and milder beit dry or wetter than average the December month has always been milder than average and I can't remember the last cold Christmas Day we had. - Perhaps 2010. We are well over -due a cold December or wintry Christmas period.


Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
---------------------------------------
Sean Moon
Magical Moon
www.magical-moon.com


nsrobins
26 September 2017 16:42:43


 


Steady Steve, this is how it all starts, you begin by thinking maybe I'm better off as a mildly and the next thing you know you're scanning the charts for a southerly feed in January whilst wetting your pants over a cheeky damp grey grizzly 16c in mid December.  It's not somewhere anyone wants you to go mate - step back from the mild side. You know there's always help out there if you need it, we're a supportive community - Bjorli can live stream through the winter if we get another 1989 and there's always the Stelvio pass Web Cam if you need a quick fix. Stay true - winter is coming.


Originally Posted by: scillydave 


😂


Classic. At various points in my life I've had therapy for conditions, but there is no treatment that I know of for the often deabilitating affliction known amongst weather geeks as 'compulsive winter model watching' 😎


Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
Solar Cycles
26 September 2017 16:49:07


 


😂


Classic. At various points in my life I've had therapy for conditions, but there is no treatment that I know of for the often deabilitating affliction known amongst weather geeks as 'compulsive winter model watching' 😎


Originally Posted by: nsrobins 

Theres one.......... Relocation Program. 

richardabdn
26 September 2017 16:55:24

2008/09 to 2012/13 was not a snowy period here just average. 2009/10 was a very snowy winter of the sort you would expect once every five years. This was offset by the horrendous 2011/12 which again would be a 1 in 5 year event.


This leaves 2008/09 which was average and 2010/11 which was very snowy before Christmas and almost snowless afterwards. 2012/13 was utter dross for most of the city. I have never seen a winter with such a sharp divide between the outskirts where it was reasonably snowy, in January at least, and the bulk of the City which had very little. One day I had measured 11cm here but the other side of the A96 ring road, just a mile away there was nothing at all.


Since then it has been unspeakably bad. The only remotely decent snow I have seen in five years was at Braemar in February 2016. Last winter was so dire that even inland areas hardly got anything. 


 


Aberdeen: The only place that misses out on everything


2023 - The Year that's Constantly Worse than a Bad November
2024 - 2023 without the Good Bits
Puppies444
26 September 2017 17:39:28

I'd certainly be up for a Winter like 2000-2001 or 2003-2004 that's for sure


But everything is sort of 'in my back yard' ... there's so little Winters to choose from which brought snow to every back yard in the country that's for sure 


 


Someone mentioned we're long overdue a cold December/festive period - there was some sort of Northerly in 2014 though around 26th December off top of my head which was a fairly localized event around central/northern parts. 

AFC Snow
26 September 2017 18:13:16


2008/09 to 2012/13 was not a snowy period here just average. 2009/10 was a very snowy winter of the sort you would expect once every five years. This was offset by the horrendous 2011/12 which again would be a 1 in 5 year event.


This leaves 2008/09 which was average and 2010/11 which was very snowy before Christmas and almost snowless afterwards. 2012/13 was utter dross for most of the city. I have never seen a winter with such a sharp divide between the outskirts where it was reasonably snowy, in January at least, and the bulk of the City which had very little. One day I had measured 11cm here but the other side of the A96 ring road, just a mile away there was nothing at all.


Since then it has been unspeakably bad. The only remotely decent snow I have seen in five years was at Braemar in February 2016. Last winter was so dire that even inland areas hardly got anything. 


 


Originally Posted by: richardabdn 


December 2010 was the last proper northerly here. Pathetic for something which used to happen most years

Gavin P
26 September 2017 18:39:37

The Weather Company (formally WSI) going for something colder for the UK and western Europe this year


https://business.weather.com/news/european-seasonal-outlook-the-weather-company-expects-a-warm-and-dry-fall-for-northern-eastern-europe


 


Rural West Northants 120m asl
Short, medium and long range weather forecast videos @ https://www.youtube.com/user/GavsWeatherVids
tallyho_83
27 September 2017 00:24:20
What do you make of this?

http://www.globalweatheroscillations.com/store-2018-winter-europe-prediction 


Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
---------------------------------------
Sean Moon
Magical Moon
www.magical-moon.com


DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
27 September 2017 06:16:25

What do you make of this?

http://www.globalweatheroscillations.com/store-2018-winter-europe-prediction

Originally Posted by: tallyho_83 


I'll undercut them and offer a detailed winter forecast for $8, and it'll be just as accurate


War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
Hade Edge Snowman
27 September 2017 09:23:11


Theres one.......... Relocation Program. 


Originally Posted by: Solar Cycles 


Seconded, and carried out


Hade Edge Snowman
West Yorkshire
1060 feet/323 metres ASL
Shropshire
28 September 2017 05:16:26


 


I think your right.


2008/2009 to 2012/2013 was an extraordinary run of cold/snowy winters for the majority of the UK (with a respite for 2011/2012) albeit a few places got unlucky and didn't have any severe snow/cold - Still given the relentless warm winters before and what's happened since 2013/2014 I think most people should feel very lucky to have experienced such a run of winters.


Who knows if we'll ever see a run like this again in our lifetimes...


Originally Posted by: Gavin P 


Well clearly this is acknowledgement that things really have changed, whilst the period was decent for the modern era, it wasn't as good as 1978-87 and I'm sure veterans wouldn't see it as good as (generally) the forties through to the end of the sixties. 


 


From December 27th 2020, zonality will be banned from mixing with the UK. We appreciate that this may come as a shock to younger people and old Uncle Barty. This ban will last for a minimum of ten days.
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
28 September 2017 06:25:51

This compilation of snow statistics for the UK since 1875 should give forum members something to base their assertions on


http://www.neforum2.co.uk/ferryhillweather/bonacina.html


 


War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
roger63
28 September 2017 10:25:26


This compilation of snow statistics for the UK since 1875 should give forum members something to base their assertions on


http://www.neforum2.co.uk/ferryhillweather/bonacina.html


 


Originally Posted by: DEW 


Great post DW. shows lots of data for analysis.Noticed that the  70's and 90's had high numbers of "little snow"  winters.I,m hoping that the approaching solar minimum around 2020 will give us a repeat performance of last solar minimum heavy snows of 2009/10 and 2010/11.

Brian Gaze
28 September 2017 10:50:31

To summarise:


The most recent 30 years:
1 very snowy
2 snowy
7 average
20 little


The previous 30 years
2 very snowy
8 snowy
8 average
12 little


Frankly you'd need to have your head stuck in the sand to say nothing has changed. However the danger is making long term extrapolations based on a short time series.


Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan

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