Rather than clutter up the MOD thread and the fact that I’ve nothing else better to to do I thought I’d start the ball rolling. Here’s a cold weather fans nirvana winter forecasts, to be honest I’ve no idea who he is and what his track records like but who cares when it shows what you want. 😁

http://www.weatherwithouttechnology.co.uk/download/ADVANCE%20PREDICTIONS%20WINTER%202017%20to%202018.pdf 

Originally Posted by: Solar Cycles 

Well his summer forecast wasn't great: he claimed June would turn damp from the 17th, when in fact the hottest weather was just arriving then; he also said August would be the best month of the summer! http://www.weatherwithouttechnology.co.uk/download/Advance_Predictions_Summer_2017.pdf

Originally Posted by: Rob K 

Well his summer forecast wasn't great: he claimed June would turn damp from the 17th, when in fact the hottest weather was just arriving then; he also said August would be the best month of the summer! http://www.weatherwithouttechnology.co.uk/download/Advance_Predictions_Summer_2017.pdf

Originally Posted by: Rob K 

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Originally Posted by: Solar Cycles 

I don't normally do LRF's but on this occasion I shall.

My verification stats are very high

I look at the stars to base my thoughts.

As soon as I see Orion rising in the east around 8pm I feel a change to a winter pattern starting to appear. This year will be no exception.

October - Warmest weather early in the month, frosts become possible in northern areas from mid month. A mixed month with settled patterns interspersed by windier and unsettled patterns at times. Possibility of snow on Scottish mountains by the end of the month !

November - Turning cooler and generally darker. Frosts will become more common, especially in the second half of the month. Morning fog will become more of a problem this month and leaf fall blocking drainage gullies could result in local flooding when showers occur. As the month progresses wintry showers could become more common at times, especially over northern hills.

December - Becoming cooler and even darker with sunshine very limited to no more than 8 hours maximum per day in southern areas in  the clearest days. Frosts will be possible in all areas on calmer nights, especially away from SW coastal locations. The probability of wintry showers occurring this month increases. 

January - A mixed month with rain at times, blustery showers at times but also some colder, settled periods with frost. Wintry showers are possible at times, especially in the north and there is a 10% chance of a very cold outbreak from the east that will threaten the UK at times. 

February - Very similar to January but with the likelihood of more in the way of sunshine hours, especially towards the end of the February. Frost is likely in all areas in calmer and settled conditions. Wintry showers remain possible especially in Scotland and there continues to be a 10% probability of something significantly colder from the east with the threat of more widespread snow showers.

March - Is likely to be a little warmer than February. The risk of wintry showers will recede from the south as the month progresses Some warmer days could see the temperature climbing above 16c and it should start to feel more springlike with longer hours of sunshine. Frost will still remain possible overnight, especially in the north during the first half of the month.

Fingers crossed my methodology works and things pan out as I expect.

Originally Posted by: Gusty 

Sounds like you're thinking of a cool and relatively settled Winter with little in the way of Atlantic-driven storminess.

I would bank this.

Originally Posted by: idj20 

I don't normally do LRF's but on this occasion I shall.

My verification stats are very high

I look at the stars to base my thoughts.

As soon as I see Orion rising in the east around 8pm I feel a change to a winter pattern starting to appear. This year will be no exception.

October 2017 - Warmest weather early in the month, frosts become possible in northern areas from mid month. A mixed month with settled patterns interspersed by windier and unsettled patterns at times. Possibility of snow on Scottish mountains by the end of the month !

November 2017 - Turning cooler and generally darker. Frosts will become more common, especially in the second half of the month. Morning fog will become more of a problem this month and leaf fall blocking drainage gullies could result in local flooding when showers occur. As the month progresses wintry showers could become more common at times, especially over northern hills.

December 2017 - Becoming cooler and even darker with sunshine very limited to no more than 8 hours maximum per day in southern areas in  the clearest days. Frosts will be possible in all areas on calmer nights, especially away from SW coastal locations. The probability of wintry showers occurring this month increases. 

January 2018 - A mixed month with rain at times, blustery showers at times but also some colder, settled periods with frost. Wintry showers are possible at times, especially in the north and there is a 10% chance of a very cold outbreak from the east that will threaten the UK at times, with a chance of snow, especially in the east and southeast. Need to check the models 4 times a day for this !  

February 2018 - Very similar to January but with the likelihood of more in the way of sunshine hours, especially towards the end of the February. Frost is likely in all areas in calmer and settled conditions. Wintry showers remain possible especially in Scotland and there continues to be a 10% probability of something significantly colder from the east with the threat of more widespread snow showers.

March 2018 - Is likely to be a little warmer than February. The risk of wintry showers will recede from the south as the month progresses Some warmer days could see the temperature climbing above 16c and it should start to feel more springlike with longer hours of sunshine. Frost will still remain possible overnight, especially in the north during the first half of the month.

Fingers crossed my methodology works and things pan out as I expect.

Originally Posted by: Gusty 

Rather than clutter up the MOD thread and the fact that I’ve nothing else better to to do I thought I’d start the ball rolling. Here’s a cold weather fans nirvana winter forecasts, to be honest I’ve no idea who he is and what his track records like but who cares when it shows what you want. 😁

http://www.weatherwithouttechnology.co.uk/download/ADVANCE%20PREDICTIONS%20WINTER%202017%20to%202018.pdf 

Originally Posted by: Solar Cycles 

Have to say ................very very early days but Gav's model round up points very much to a mild wet Winter .

Originally Posted by: Gooner 

Rather than clutter up the MOD thread and the fact that I’ve nothing else better to to do I thought I’d start the ball rolling. Here’s a cold weather fans nirvana winter forecasts, to be honest I’ve no idea who he is and what his track records like but who cares when it shows what you want. 😁

http://www.weatherwithouttechnology.co.uk/download/ADVANCE%20PREDICTIONS%20WINTER%202017%20to%202018.pdf 

Originally Posted by: Solar Cycles 

It reads more like 'weather without knowledge' - how do NNW or NNE winds bring severe flooding to the areas mentioned ? 

What waso special about January 1991 ? Unless the author means Feb 91.

Very early days as Gusty has said but at this juncture there is no reason to expect anything other than a mild to very mild winter when compared with historical averages - i.e normal fare for the modern era.

Originally Posted by: Shropshire 

given the extremely active hurricane season compared to most other years over the last 20, I think it would be foolhardy to predict anything yet - and what is the 'modern era' exactly ?

Originally Posted by: Jayni C 

I sense another season of people having to put up with subtle "modern era trolling" as we head into winter.

As for the weather, who knows but I have noticed that the leaves' changing/dropping and the berries seem a bit earlier this year in my location. While I know they do not "predict" they are indicative or weather patterns in preceding weeks and months. Such patterns may also have other impacts...

Originally Posted by: doctormog 

One of our members only remains here because a for loop timed out before it completed account deletion. Due to that extraordinary stroke of luck I decided to leave his account for now, albeit with a reduced number of historic posts. As we aren't accepting new members everyone now walks on very thin ice. 

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

One of our members only remains here because a for loop timed out before it completed account deletion. Due to that extraordinary stroke of luck I decided to leave his account for now, albeit with a reduced number of historic posts. As we aren't accepting new members everyone now walks on very thin ice. 

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

Why are new members no longer accepted ? I've got a number of  Net Weather followers who come over here in the winter to read my thoughts and they've asked me why it's not possible to sign up on TWO.

Originally Posted by: Shropshire