GFS struggling in FI- odd, 'cos no one takes it seriously anyway. At least in the TWO roll-out, the 06z frames got to T+300 then failed to finish before the 12z started creeping in.

The words "school summer holidays" trump any synoptic charts. Fine weather will be back in the second week of September.

Back to Model output, and the GFS ensembles show changeable conditions, and dry periods punctuated by wetter slots.  I note the model has decided this morning that a warm up (albeit temporary) may accompany the start of the month.  A fairly typical summer picture, in my view.

Very poor 12z so far low pressure stuck like a limpit to our NW . Dreadful for high summer especially when it promised so much.

Ukmo day 6 sums it up. In fact gfs is even worse my advice don't look.

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.html

Yes GFS constantly spinning up new lows SW of eachother like a train. Moist air being dragged up with them too meaning western areas in particular seeing plenty of rain if the 12z is anything to go by.

Once again it's way past day 10 when we see any real inroads made by the Azores high 

Nice. Wrong thread though. And me.

And back to the model output

Plenty of variety available in the model output this evening. In the interests of not tripping out mordant observations on the weather,

Here is the GEM at day 8 :

Which then develops into this day 10: Which would be increasingly warm and sunny.

WI

That's much more like it.

AZ High always in a wrong place and with normal W to E flow that HP never move eastward and that shown on that dodgy 12z when I see a LP stuck almost the whole run in between Iceland and Scotland, that small LP are severely wrecking and wasting our remaining high summer time. Northern blocking as they say is supposed to the same as southern blocking with LP or HP moving eastward freely.  If the jet stream really exist then it should push the LP and HP cells faster and not stuck in same place?  

Bland describes this evening's offerings. Standard westerly gripe, especially affecting the NW as is usual in our normal summer pattern. Uppers lacklustre throughout

Looks pretty mixed in the mid term. Based on the amount of site traffic I've been getting in the last couple of weeks I think it's fair to assume the weather is playing havoc with UK summer hols and outdoor events. Good for my business but unfortunate for people getting rained on.

Part of me is wondering whether the projected switch in the AMO from a positive phase as we have at present to a negative one will do anything to improve our summers. My own view is that from the point of view of my own area, there has been a decline in the quality of our summer ever since the AMO last changed in 1998 or thenabouts, whereas prior to that year we had a run or quite reasonable ones. There is a thread discussing the AMO in the climate forum for anyone who is interested.

The Law of Averages has come to pass. I'm expecting a mixed, rather changeable August myself. Maybe one more short lived heatwave before we wave goodbye to Summer 2017.

The understanding is that with a negative AMO we will have less rainfall so more sunshine, however, temps will be cooler (overall) but in Summer we wouldn't notice is at it would be warmer in the sunshine.

Yes, I think we're had the best of this summer has to offer.

I guess to an extent I have forgotten what average should be like. I'd be happy with it never mind drier or sunnier than average, that would just be a bonus.

I'm trying to be positive but looking out the window, at the last 7 weeks of weather and the persistent output at the moment I genuinely wonder if we will go straight from spring to autumn (if we have not got there already). If there is any redeeming factor it would be that it has not been persistently cold, not does it look like being so on a daily basis. I'm watching the model output as I have done for weeks, hoping for something decent to reach this neck of the woods, and yes average rain and sunshine would be enough.

As a rare summer visitor ( as rare as a decent summer spell in Doc's backyard- I do feel your pain!!), I wonder if we have already had the best of what summer has to offer. Seeing as I'm off on a two week caravan trip to Eastern England on Saturday, I have been looking ahead at next weeks offerings and apart from perhaps a brief ridge for the South it doesn't look good. Furthermore I do genuinely feel for our Northern contingent- even during our previous better weather down here it was decidedly poor up there. The AZ seems to be holding back, flattened by the jet which again seems rather oddly placed for high Summer. I'm sure we shouldn't worry-  the AZ will be back with a vengeance come Winter to snuff out anything remotely of interest.

If you have shares in a wellington boot company then smile, otherwise go buy a pair.

" "Part of me is wondering whether the projected switch in the AMO from a positive phase as we have at present to a negative one will do anything to improve our summers. My own view is that from the point of view of my own area, there has been a decline in the quality of our summer ever since the AMO last changed in 1998 or thenabouts, whereas prior to that year we had a run or quite reasonable ones. There is a thread discussing the AMO in the climate forum for anyone who is interested." "

Thanks fotr the pointers David,I have had a look at the AMO, really vast subject, but just some basic observations, from the past AMO when it was colder, from mid 60's to mid 90's we got our best summers of late in that period? So a negative AMO means drier , warmer summers? just as a very basic observation. You would have thought a warmer Atlantic would be more beneficial but not quite the case. Some predictions are now saying we are heading to negative AMO, be interesting if it does we get back to drier warmer summers ?