ECM downplays the energy in the Low, keeping the core well to our NW over Iceland to meander off into Scandi as a relatively filled feature.

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Ridiculous inconsistency from the models. How anyone can confidently predict anything past midweek are lying to themselves. Another complete about turn from ECM and no doubt GFS will follow suit later. As I said yesterday I've never seen such volatility from run to run.

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I could really do with Jiries popping up and banning that annoying illegal low pressure. There must be some kind of law against things like this happening at the start of the school holidays.

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Ridiculous inconsistency from the models. How anyone can confidently predict anything past midweek are lying to themselves. Another complete about turn from ECM and no doubt GFS will follow suit later. As I said yesterday I've never seen such volatility from run to run.

One wonders if some kind of pattern change may be afoot, Kieren. I have seen people comment in here in the past that sometimes the models struggle a lot, including the normally trusted ones, if they are picking up the beginnings of a change in pattern.

One thing is for sure, which is that after all the volte-faces we have seen in the past week alone, I'm taking the output with a rather larger pinch of salt that I would do normally, and I'd advise all regular followers of the output to do likewise if they want to retain their sanity!

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Week away yet

Good to see that the 12z ECM is WAY better 

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12z GFS ops looks decent enough for Southern areas. Improving picture through the weekend and beyond. For what it's worth, which is very little really unless anyone puts any faith in model output accuracy beyond a few days out

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12z GFS ops looks decent enough for Southern areas. Improving picture through the weekend and beyond. For what it's worth, which is very little really unless anyone puts any faith in model output accuracy beyond a few days out

Quite. And 100f likely by the end of the run on this run. Which will be no doubt swept away to 15c and rain by 18z. The next two to three days are about as far as we can realistically go.

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GEM and UKMO revert to centring the low over the UK for the weekend - both look quite convective:
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GEMOPEU12_120_1.png 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/UKMOPEU12_120_1.png 

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Forecast for this Friday remaining annoyingly consistent, though not too bad. It's interesting that when you focus on a specific date from about 5 days out there's actually pretty good consistency from run to run. There's still that 5-7 day predictability barrier which gives FI its name.

Good to see 100F on the cards though, albeit for this one fleeting run. Especially as GEM is Meh.

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http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1201.gif

Caption competition? 

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Again a week away yawn yawn

Again a week away yawn yawn

Not sure who you're referring to?

Good to see that the 12z GFS has improved markedly compared to its miserable op run yesterday evening.

The T+120 MetO chart is just funny. It's kind of a good metaphor for the country at the mo. Made me laugh anyway. :D 

Anyway we can enjoy another day of warmth before some storms and hopefully the settled weather will return again before long. 

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Not sure who you're referring to?

Good to see that the 12z GFS has improved markedly compared to its miserable op run yesterday evening.

The T+120 MetO chart is just funny. It's kind of a good metaphor for the country at the mo. Made me laugh anyway. :D 

Anyway we can enjoy another day of warmth before some storms and hopefully the settled weather will return again before long. 

I was thinking of captioning it along the lines you're thinking but remembered being ticked off in another thread so stayed silent. 

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Astonishing GEFS12z tonight. There's an outside chance (15%???) that we're seeing history in the making.

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I don't often post on this thread as it's about reading the models and that's not something I can do, but I visit it every day to enjoy the expertise of others! 

From what I've read here this summer, it seems the models don't want to us to have a good summer and only reluctantly show good weather when it's imminent. 

The latest on the rollercoaster Caz gives a chilli-hot FI. And, as I have said, I won't feel surprise if tomorrow it's a Scandi low.

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Wetter to the N.W, drier to the S.E Temps around average

The FI section of the 12z GFS is insane. T+324 h shows the 20C 850 hPa isotherm reaching as far north as Newcastle and thicknesses in the SE probably around 582 dam. What a pity it's so far out...

Has the 582 dam line ever reached the UK before?

Well if the GFS 12Z FI comes off that will be the 40C mark breached

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU12_324_2.png 

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ECM 12z also pushes the low south for the weekend, not as far south as UKMO/GEM but further than GFS.
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/ECMOPEU12_120_1.png 

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Well if the GFS 12Z FI comes off that will be the 40C mark breached

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU12_324_2.png 

 

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