The Weather Outlook

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UncleAlbert
29 December 2016 11:27:46
The major difference with the 0600 GFS this morning is in that the blocking high associated with the first cold surge retrogresses north westwards instead of sliding away SE. This changes the whole dynamic of the model output theron. Somebody mentioned comparison to Dec 2010 yesterday with ref to HP orientation. The crucial period therefore is around next Wednesday where we reach this tipping point. This is coming into the more reliable now and IMO this is where we need to look for ODDS ON deep cold
The Beast from the East
29 December 2016 11:28:38

http://modeles7.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/runs/2016122906/gens-0-1-240.png

Just about the perfect winter chart for the UK. pure filthy weather porn

Sadly, it can only go downhill from here!

 


Purley, Surrey, 70m ASL

"We have some alternative facts for you"

Kelly-Ann Conway - former special adviser to the President

SEMerc
29 December 2016 11:29:48

Looking at the temp profiles in the farther reaches of FI this has to be one of the better examples in recent years of weather porn, with -17 creeping down to the East Midlands.

Bertwhistle
29 December 2016 11:31:59

To join the legendary 'That ECM' we now have 'That GFS' 😉
More runs needed.

Originally Posted by: nsrobins 

I agree Neil. I'm waiting to see what the UKMW 6-30 day outlook reads like.


Bertie, Itchen Valley.

Retire while you can still press the 'retire now' button.

chelsea4cup
29 December 2016 11:32:45

Please tell me that they are feeding the GFS computers with neat alcohol, not just sherry. Must be one of the coldest runs we have seen for a long time. 


Phil, York
Chunky Pea
29 December 2016 11:33:03


Patrick,

East Galway, Ireland.

Hippydave
29 December 2016 11:33:50

Bit of a cruel 6z run, albeit there has been the odd ens member doing similar things over the past few days.  Think I'll treat in same way as I would if it had gone madly mild and zonal and disregard unless the ens show strong support over several runs!


Home: Tunbridge Wells

Work: Tonbridge

tallyho_83
29 December 2016 11:36:17

Looking at the temp profiles in the farther reaches of FI this has to be one of the better examples in recent years of weather porn, with -17 creeping down to the East Midlands.

Originally Posted by: SEMerc 

Yes - glad I am not the only one seeing such eye candy sugar like charts: - This will not come off (NOT this cold) but isn't this the similar sort of set up we had towards the middle of Jan 2013?

 

 

Even in just over a weeks time?

Daytime temperatures of -1  to +4c widely with snow showers pushing down from the north across the country with heavier falls further east!?:

 


Home Location - Vixen Tor Close, Okehampton, Devon (221m ASL)

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Sean Moon

Magical Moon

www.magical-moon.com

Gavin P
29 December 2016 11:37:46

Hope someone is saving these 06z charts for posterity!

I have to include it on today's vid, lol!


Rural West Northants 120m asl

Short, medium and long range weather forecast videos @ https://www.youtube.com/user/GavsWeatherVids

tallyho_83
29 December 2016 11:41:05

 

Yes - glad I am not the only one seeing such eye candy sugar like charts: - This will not come off (NOT this cold) but isn't this the similar sort of set up we had towards the middle of Jan 2013?

 

 

Even in just over a weeks time?

Daytime temperatures of -1  to +4c widely with snow showers pushing down from the north across the country with heavier falls further east!?:

 

Netweather GFS Image

 

Originally Posted by: tallyho_83 

Just for fun - I wonder if this is supported with the ECM?!?

Netweather GFS Image


Home Location - Vixen Tor Close, Okehampton, Devon (221m ASL)

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Sean Moon

Magical Moon

www.magical-moon.com

tallyho_83
29 December 2016 11:43:31

Hope someone is saving these 06z charts for posterity!

I have to include it on today's vid, lol!

Originally Posted by: Gavin P 

I was going to give up looking at charts if the 06Z wasn't showing any signs of severe cold and snow but today proved it's still game on - especially after John Hammond mention the cold will more likely to return in the week ahead, however we have heard all this before earlier this December didn't we? So let's take these charts with caution!?


Home Location - Vixen Tor Close, Okehampton, Devon (221m ASL)

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Sean Moon

Magical Moon

www.magical-moon.com

Gooner
29 December 2016 11:45:50

Maybe...................just maybe this is what JOE B was on about


Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus

Banbury

North Oxfordshire

378 feet A S L



Solar Cycles
29 December 2016 11:46:13
The much maligned Joe ******i did say brutal cold on its way for Western Europe. 😄
Solar Cycles
29 December 2016 11:46:47

Maybe...................just maybe this is what JOE B was on about

Originally Posted by: Gooner 

Beat me to it. 😂😂😂

tallyho_83
29 December 2016 11:47:00

I'm increasingly confident about the January call I made in the TWO winter forecast. Hopefully the outcome will be "one louder" in the words of Spinal Tap. 

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

Just reading it for January, especially 'Forecast note':

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/forecast/uk-seasonal-weather-forecast

Good luck. Perhaps not to the extent the charts are showing today but certainly there looks the potential for all of us./

 


Home Location - Vixen Tor Close, Okehampton, Devon (221m ASL)

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Sean Moon

Magical Moon

www.magical-moon.com

SEMerc
29 December 2016 11:47:30

Lowest temp I can find out in FI is -21C (in the Scottish Highlands). Bit nippy that.

Phil G
29 December 2016 11:49:30
Polar lows etc, the GFS has modelled a fair amount of instability in the atmosphere waiting to come down and from the east.
LA2B MeridFlowEuro09
29 December 2016 12:06:43

Today's look of the GFS 00z, UKMO 00z and ECMWF 00z Model Output suggests that we have Tuesday 3rd Jan., to Thursday 5th Jan., less cold air, but by Friday and Saturday 6th and 7th Jan., we get more Cold NW to Northerly type Arctic cold plunge, with widespread night frost and chance of hill snow, and for lower levels in the North. After that the North Atlantic Blocking High should move back from our West and NW, by Sunday 8th Jan.

Low Pressure diving SE from Central N Canada at 192-216- through NW Atlantic join with a Low from Mid W N Atlantic merge together with WAA going up as they merge in NW Atlantic even at 240hrs.

NE Europe Sunday 1st to Thursday 5th looks set for very cold Cyclonic Arctic Polar Vortex Cold wintry spell of weather.

At 192-216hrs the High over NW Atlantic intensifies and merges with the Greenland High, a Mid N Atlantic set of two Low Pressure systems that head to 500 miles South of Iceland by 4-5 January merged with SE tracking Newfoundland far NW Atlantic Low with cold NorthNW plunge formed in it as cold NW Atlantic High and Greenland High merge.  Another chance for a second round.

NW to SE Tracking PV Express C and E Canada to NW half of Atlantic latter part of 1st week NY 2017!!, the ECMWF and GFS I hope that next five days this prediction keeps maintained.

😃☔🌞⛈❄️🌊. There could be wet and Windy weather on Thursday to Saturday as well, with wintry conditions up in NW and North UK by Friday-Saturday.🔚.


Climate is warming up, Scotland and N Ireland and North England still often gets some Winter frost, ice and snow, November to March, but the SE and South UK including S Central England and Wales, together with the West and North through the year, they sometimes get more rain than London and S SE England, where some longer dry fine spells without much heavy rain is seen every year.

The North Atlantic Sea often gets some much Colder Wintry conditions from November to March Months, and Mild SW and South winds tend to be more frequent over the East and SE of North Atlantic Sea, as the Azores High tends to stay in charge. 

With this warmth and heat, the Central and South UK has become mostly free of snow and frost.

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