The Weather Outlook

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Solar Cycles
29 December 2016 10:53:13
Great 06z charts for those in the E/SE next weekend, no doubt it will look completely different nearer the time but the main thing is all roads lead to cold on all the outputs thus far.
squish
29 December 2016 10:53:16
The 06z is all very Jan 1985!

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/1985/Rrea00119850103.gif 

D.E.W on Dartmoor. 300m asl
Phil G
29 December 2016 10:53:33
Snowedin3
29 December 2016 10:53:40

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3121.gif

LOL!!!!!! 

If only. If only. 

Originally Posted by: Joe Bloggs 

 

 HAHA that is ridiculous, Holy Grail.

Dean Barnes

Finstock, Chipping Norton, Oxfordshire

160m ASL 525 Ft

marting
29 December 2016 10:53:52
This 06z run is hilarious, the 264 chart with a little low coming down across the uk from the north east wrapped up in very cold air🌨☃❄️ If only!! Nice entertainment though.

Martin

Martin

Greasby, Wirral.

Air
29 December 2016 10:53:57

6z run is ridiculous  Thought it might dip its toes into the freezer after the 7th but didn't expect it to shed all its clothes and dive in nude. What a run! 

Phil G
29 December 2016 10:54:42
About the same time 30 years ago as the famous Jan 87 event.
Whether Idle
29 December 2016 10:55:11

The 06z is all very Jan 1985!

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/1985/Rrea00119850103.gif

Originally Posted by: squish 

That is my ultimate cold spell IMBY.  Ain't gonna happen again.

Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.
doctormog
29 December 2016 10:56:57
It's almost as if someone programmed this run especially for all the cold and snow lovers in the U.K. to say "this is what you could get". It would be difficult to programme a better run and I suspect it will be the best operational model run we will see for a very long time. I hope in a way I'm wrong but it's rather out of line with recent output!
Aberdeen

Current conditions (personal WS) 

Phil G
29 December 2016 10:57:30
Charmhills
29 December 2016 10:57:59

An entertaining run but it is the 06z run and I suspect one of the colder options in the ensembles. At least it's not a downgrade and I hope none starts shouting downgrade when the 12z is inevitably less extreme.

Originally Posted by: doctormog 

Well quite.

This run is just one of a range of many options from the GFS cluster.

Loughborough, EM.

Knowledge is power.

Duane.

Phil G
29 December 2016 10:58:18
Notty
29 December 2016 10:58:23

GFS 06z ends with a Greenland HP, a Scandi HP (nearly) and UK in the freezer

I can only dream :)

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=384&mode=0

 

Notty

Pontypool, 132m asl

Whether Idle
29 December 2016 10:58:47

Frankly, that was a rogue run. 

  If we can get this within 5 days then Winter Nirvana awaits. Cant see it happening, sorry.

 As Doc says, disregard, dismiss.  More runs needed.

 

WI

Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.
Joe Bloggs
29 December 2016 10:59:23

It's almost as if someone programmed this run especially for all the cold and snow lovers in the U.K. to say "this is what you could get". It would be difficult to programme a better run and I suspect it will be the best operational model run we will see for a very long time. I hope in a way I'm wrong but it's rather out of line with recent output!

Originally Posted by: doctormog 

Indeed!

At least the run is also improved in the medium range.

What I'm looking for is direct southerly WAA up to Greenland in the more reliable timeframe, and the cold will likely follow. 

Phil G
29 December 2016 10:59:34
HaHa -6 during the day. It won't happen I'll tell ya

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn37217.gif 

The Beast from the East
29 December 2016 10:59:51

Just as the euros want to sink GFS now wants to maintain ridging. Crucial period is 120-144hrs. Hopefully the UKMO 00z is wrong

 

Purley, Surrey, 70m ASL

"We have some alternative facts for you"

Kelly-Ann Conway - former special adviser to the President

squish
29 December 2016 11:01:14

Frankly, that was a rogue run. 

  If we can get this within 5 days then Winter Nirvana awaits. Cant see it happening, sorry.

 As Doc says, disregard, dismiss.  More runs needed.

 

WI

Originally Posted by: Whether Idle 

 

The 00z ECM extended ensembles suggested quite a few runs of the likes of the 06z. The 06z GEFS will be interesting to see how much support there is.

 

D.E.W on Dartmoor. 300m asl
Phil G
29 December 2016 11:01:50
Sorry, enjoyed all that coming out. Us bitten before know it will start to disappear, but nice to see.
roger63
29 December 2016 11:02:07

Hmm tricky development from Atlantic HP to Iceland HP to ScandiHP to Greenland HP.Lots of things can go wrong en route but it finishes with the best op run of the winter. 

 

doctormog
29 December 2016 11:02:11

Just as the euros want to sink GFS now wants to maintain ridging. Crucial period is 120-144hrs. Hopefully the UKMO 00z is wrong

 

Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 

The UKMO run is not bad, it just stops at a rather unfortunate time point. Run it on to 168hr and it looks more positive (with high pressure in the North Atlantic to our west)

http://ruc.noaa.gov/hfip/tcgen/2016/2016122900/gfs2.2016123112.060.lant.troplant.prp.fcst.gentracker.png 

Aberdeen

Current conditions (personal WS) 

Joe Bloggs
29 December 2016 11:03:20

 

The UKMO run is not bad, it just stops at a rather unfortunate time point. Run it on to 168hr and it looks more positive (with high pressure in the North Atlantic to our west)

http://ruc.noaa.gov/hfip/tcgen/2016/2016122900/gfs2.2016123112.060.lant.troplant.prp.fcst.gentracker.png 

Originally Posted by: doctormog 

I like that T+168 chart. WAA heading north. 

Russwirral
29 December 2016 11:04:46
Without doubt one of the coldest gfs runs in recent memory right there.

Weather station:

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=IWIRRAL24#history 

The Beast from the East
29 December 2016 11:05:43

Control coming out

http://modeles7.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/runs/2016122906/gens-0-0-96.png

Should be a severe frost on News Years Day night if its not cloudy

Purley, Surrey, 70m ASL

"We have some alternative facts for you"

Kelly-Ann Conway - former special adviser to the President

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