The Weather Outlook

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White Meadows
28 December 2016 08:29:55

 I agree generally good output this morning but ecm keeps pressure annoyingly high to our south which scuppers what could have been a stunning effort. 

 

 

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2161.html

 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 

And more worryingly where are the heights to our north or anywhere at high latitude for that matter?

Gfs continues its flip flopping ensembles today but IMO ECM has dropped the idea of anything more prolonged than a northerly snap.

nsrobins
28 December 2016 08:42:09
As it stands we have a brief cold shot Sun/Mon then a general WNW flow before looking for the next reload from the North (50%) or East (20%) into the second weekend.

Focussing on the cold front and the fine detail needs to be resolved but the 'profile' and uppers/dp associated with it don't suggest too much in the way of backedge action I'm afraid.

Neil

Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)

Stormchaser, Member TORRO

roger63
28 December 2016 09:14:21

And more worryingly where are the heights to our north or anywhere at high latitude for that matter?

Gfs continues its flip flopping ensembles today but IMO ECM has dropped the idea of anything more prolonged than a northerly snap.

Originally Posted by: White Meadows 

A  cold snap rather than a cold spell looks to be the form.However if you look at the ENS GEFS 0h there are two roughly equal clusters at`120h First HP in the Atlantic set in  mid Atlantic with a more north to north west flow and LP flow just glancing the uk in  the east.Second HP closer to Iceland giving a more north easterly flow and a better chance of precpitation.P5 is the best example

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=5&ech=120&mode=0&carte=0

GEM also goes with the development of a small LP in the south.

Beyond 120h is not so encouraging with the next reload on Sunday 8th looking rather uncertain and the ENS having 50% returning to a more zonal flow.

Solar Cycles
28 December 2016 09:17:08
To my eyes it's all going a bit Pete Tong this morning with the ECM showing us why we shouldn't expect more than a few days of cold before things flatten out as heights to our south are once again just to strong to allow a lowering of heights in Europe. Let's hope the ECM is barking up the wrong tree.
RobN
  • RobN
  • Advanced Member
28 December 2016 09:17:45

De Bilt 15 day ens have reasonable possibility of further colder shots

Rob

In the flatlands of South Cambridgeshire 15m ASL.

Ally Pally Snowman
28 December 2016 09:18:49

 

Ecm ensembles not so good this morning sadly in fact quite a downgrade 

 

 

 

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
doctormog
28 December 2016 09:23:44

To be fair the ECM ensemble data would look better from a northern perspective than a Dutch one as the prospect of cold is from the north not the east/southeast initially at least.

In fact I would say that if there is a single chart that summarises today's output it is probably this one 

http://meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2016122800/EDM101-240.GIF 

Aberdeen

Current conditions (personal WS) 

GIBBY
28 December 2016 09:26:26

In my reports and forecasts to my local folk on my Kilmersdon Weather Facebook page I only use the ECM for my forecasts and since I started using it since it's upgrade I have found it very accurate including the controversial mean chart folks here diss. Discounting GFS and to some degree UKMO to some degree is a dangerous game for forecasting I know but I havent found ECM to have let me down as yet. I don't buy into this cold period other than for the first few days of 2017 as ECM for some runs now have kept heights too high to the South with the form horse increasingly preferring a return to milder Atlantic Westerlies and some rain alternating with colder polar maritime NW'lies. I know many of you don't like the mean chart but I do and this mornings offering is very poor if it's cold snowy weather your looking for and lo and behold it is largely borne out by the ensembles.

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

 

Martin G

Kilmersdon Radstock Bath Somerset

Look up my New Facebook Weather Page  for all the latest up to the minute weather stories as they happen
doctormog
28 December 2016 09:31:43

To be fair Martin, if I am looking for cold and snow that Scandinavia trough scenario is almost as good as it gets, but yes it is too far away to have confidence. And yes I do realise it is not particularly useful for SW England.

Edit: The Greenland High ridging to Iceland is an added bonus.

Aberdeen

Current conditions (personal WS) 

White Meadows
28 December 2016 09:34:07
That mean chart paints a dire picture, back to where we were 2 weeks ago.

We can only hope ECM doesn't verify quite how is shown and give us more of a uk HP if we can't have it to our north, west or indeed east.

doctormog
28 December 2016 09:36:33

That mean chart paints a dire picture, back to where we were 2 weeks ago.
We can only hope ECM doesn't verify quite how is shown and give us more of a uk HP if we can't have it to our north, west or indeed east.

Originally Posted by: White Meadows 

It is nothing like where we were two weeks ago. That statement is just simply wrong.

2 weeks ago http://meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/archives/2016121312/ECM1-0.GIF?12

Current 240hr mean chart http://meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/archives/2016122712/EDM1-240.GIF?12 

 

Aberdeen

Current conditions (personal WS) 

Ally Pally Snowman
28 December 2016 09:38:03

That mean chart paints a dire picture, back to where we were 2 weeks ago.
We can only hope ECM doesn't verify quite how is shown and give us more of a uk HP if we can't have it to our north, west or indeed east.

Originally Posted by: White Meadows 

 

Yes the ecm ensembles are poor this morning so we just have to hope they're wrong. Which is more than possible as  other output is still pretty good .

 

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Maunder Minimum
28 December 2016 09:40:54
I so hate it when Shropshire is vindicated! But then he takes the easy option of promoting our default synoptics. Ian, there is nothing clever about predicting what happens 90% of the time - the clever part is to predict when we get the 10% delivered.
New world order coming.
doctormog
28 December 2016 09:42:24

I so hate it when Shropshire is vindicated! But then he takes the easy option of promoting our default synoptics. Ian, there is nothing clever about predicting what happens 90% of the time - the clever part is to predict when we get the 10% delivered.

Originally Posted by: Maunder Minimum 

You may have a long wait before he is vindicated! 

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2402.gif This is the ECM output that everyone is slating. What a bizarre turn of events!

Aberdeen

Current conditions (personal WS) 

Ally Pally Snowman
28 December 2016 09:44:10

 

Let's not get too ahead of ourselves just yet. This morning's Gfs ensembles are the snowiest I've seen all winter for London.

 

No chart available for the selected hour. Many charts start at 3 hours ahead, so if you have 0 hours selected try stepping forward or selecting a later hour.

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
David M Porter
28 December 2016 09:46:42

 

It is nothing like where we were two weeks ago. That statement is just simply wrong.

2 weeks ago http://meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/archives/2016121312/ECM1-0.GIF?12

Current 240hr mean chart http://meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/archives/2016122712/EDM1-240.GIF?12 

 

Originally Posted by: doctormog 

I have to agree, Michael.

In the chart from a fortnight ago, we had a southerly airflow in place over the UK on the chart shown, but fir next week a NW airflow is indicated. Not sure how anyone can claim that they look like the same set-up.

Lenzie, Glasgow

"A body of men holding themselves accountable to nobody ought not to be trusted by anybody." – Thomas Paine

Joe Bloggs
28 December 2016 09:47:25

I read the last few pages and thought it was game on this morning, and then the most recent page or so represents a shape of the pair. 

Who to believe? ;-) 

A very quick summary from me :- 

MetO - cold throughout. The t+144 chart shows the WAA aligned fairly well (SE'ly) which could lead to further blocking. 

GFS - generally cold and we are in a whisker of a very cold easterly in the early stages of FI.

ECM - cool to cold as far as the eyes can see. 

Not to mention it is cold and frosty NOW, as I type. 

Snowmageddon it is not.. but the outlook looks like offering below average temps, with some genuinely cold air at times, with a healthy potential for snow within the next 2 weeks (although no point trying to pin down the detail).

Given December's efforts things could look much, much worse. 

tallyho_83
28 December 2016 09:50:03

1075 to 1080mb over Greenland? What would that HP do to the body? - Must be a record high?

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/jma/runs/2016122712/J96-21.GIF?27-0

 

 

 

 

Home Location - Vixen Tor Close, Okehampton, Devon (221m ASL)

---------------------------------------

Sean Moon

Magical Moon

www.magical-moon.com

David M Porter
28 December 2016 09:59:44

I read the last few pages and thought it was game on this morning, and then the most recent page or so represents a shape of the pair. 

Who to believe? ;-) 

A very quick summary from me :- 

MetO - cold throughout. The t+144 chart shows the WAA aligned fairly well (SE'ly) which could lead to further blocking. 

GFS - generally cold and we are in a whisker of a very cold easterly in the early stages of FI.

ECM - cool to cold as far as the eyes can see. 

Not to mention it is cold and frosty NOW, as I type. 

Snowmageddon it is not.. but the outlook looks like offering below average temps, with some genuinely cold air at times, with a healthy potential for snow within the next 2 weeks (although no point trying to pin down the detail).

Given December's efforts things could look much, much worse. 

Originally Posted by: Joe Bloggs 

Good summary of the output, Joe.

Lenzie, Glasgow

"A body of men holding themselves accountable to nobody ought not to be trusted by anybody." – Thomas Paine

pdiddy
28 December 2016 10:03:38

1075 to 1080mb over Greenland? What would that HP do to the body? - Must be a record high?

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/jma/runs/2016122712/J96-21.GIF?27-0

 

 

 

 

Originally Posted by: tallyho_83 

JMA always overdoes those...

idj20
28 December 2016 10:03:54

1075 to 1080mb over Greenland? What would that HP do to the body? - Must be a record high?

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/jma/runs/2016122712/J96-21.GIF?27-0

Originally Posted by: tallyho_83 



I'd disregard that as for some reason the JMA seem to like showing that extreme high pressure feature over Greenland, might be a glitch in the Japanese model algorithm.

Anyway, it does looks like high pressure rule for quite a while anyway. It may not provide the most favourable position to bring sustained proper cold our way just yet, but at least it may do a decent job of keeping the angry Atlantic at arms length.

Home location: Folkestone Harbour.
tallyho_83
28 December 2016 10:05:58

Or 1085mb over Greenland at +168z?

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/jma/runs/2016122712/J252-21.GIF?27-0


Imagine this reaching 1100mb? - Highest pressure I've ever seen is 1060mb over Greenland. So it's over done it? Otherwise it's quite a block anything above 1040 is high enough.

 

Home Location - Vixen Tor Close, Okehampton, Devon (221m ASL)

---------------------------------------

Sean Moon

Magical Moon

www.magical-moon.com

doctormog
28 December 2016 10:28:09
http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1082.gif 

The details will vary with each run. Beyond that, as many others have said the signs are encouraging, as they are on the ECM and UKMO.

The second cold blast still looks on target on the 06z GFS and beyond then all options are on the table, albeit some more likely than others. Something like the ECM by 240hrs would be very encouraging.

Aberdeen

Current conditions (personal WS) 

Rob K
28 December 2016 10:31:29

That mean chart paints a dire picture, back to where we were 2 weeks ago.
We can only hope ECM doesn't verify quite how is shown and give us more of a uk HP if we can't have it to our north, west or indeed east.

Originally Posted by: White Meadows 

How does the ECM mean chart look "dire"? There's a massive Scandi trough and a ridge through Iceland into Greenland!

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

Bertwhistle
28 December 2016 10:35:49

 

How does the ECM mean chart look "dire"? There's a massive Scandi trough and a ridge through Iceland into Greenland!

Originally Posted by: Rob K 

I agree.

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/chart.aspx?chart=/charts/ecm/240_mslp850.png?cb=76

I can easily imagine how little peripheral lows start to form around that Scandi low and drift southwards...

Bertie, Itchen Valley.

Retire while you can still press the 'retire now' button.

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