The Weather Outlook

Remove ads from site

polarwind
29 December 2016 11:06:59

Frankly, that was a rogue run. 

  If we can get this within 5 days then Winter Nirvana awaits. Cant see it happening, sorry.

 As Doc says, disregard, dismiss.  More runs needed.

 

WI

Originally Posted by: Whether Idle 

No……don't dismiss it…………. hold it in abeyance…. for couple of days.

"The professional standards of science must impose a framework of discipline and at the same time encourage rebellion against it". – Michael Polyani (1962)

"If climate science is sound and accurate, then it should be able to respond effectively to all the points raised…." - Grandad

"The whole problem with the world is that fools and fanatics are always so certain of themselves, and wiser people so full of doubts". - Bertrand Russell

"Science is the belief in the ignorance of the experts" – Richard Feynman

"A consensus means that everyone agrees to say collectively what no one believes individually.”- Abba Eban, Israeli diplomat

Dave,Derby

doctormog
29 December 2016 11:07:15

The GFS 6Z is insane.

Originally Posted by: jamesthemonkeh 

Mild outlier? 

Aberdeen

Current conditions (personal WS) 

Hungry Tiger
29 December 2016 11:09:43

HaHa -6 during the day. It won't happen I'll tell ya
http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn37217.gif

Originally Posted by: Phil G 

That is perfectly possible - The likes of that happened in February 1895.

 

Gavin S. FRmetS.

TWO Moderator.

Contact the TWO team - [email protected]

South Cambridgeshire. 93 metres or 302.25 feet ASL.



Gavin D
29 December 2016 11:09:52

Solar Cycles
29 December 2016 11:11:02
Having viewed the full output now I think I'm in need of a lie down, possibly the coldest snowiest charts since December 2010. Now for the tricky bit, will the weather follow the output. 😂😂😂
Bertwhistle
29 December 2016 11:11:02

 

That is my ultimate cold spell IMBY.  Ain't gonna happen again.

Originally Posted by: Whether Idle 

Interestingly, the New Year high pressure set-up was a long Atlantic-Greenland link, not entirely unlike this year's forecast set up.

But that high then moved up to the Norwegian sea, which opened the Easterly floodgates from 4th, whereas this year's is due to collapse south, meaning we have to depend on secondary lows migrating south in that NW'ly, more like what happened to kick off the 1890 freeze on 23rd November.

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten/fsreaeur.html

Edit: sorry- the link defaults to Dec 2015; the chart selector offers the dates I mentioned. If anybody knows how to ctrl + c specific links to old wetterzentrale charts I'd be glad to know

 

 

Bertie, Itchen Valley.

Retire while you can still press the 'retire now' button.

The Beast from the East
29 December 2016 11:11:34

http://modeles7.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/runs/2016122906/gens-0-1-138.png

Control similar to the Op so far. But this is the crucial moment

 

Purley, Surrey, 70m ASL

"We have some alternative facts for you"

Kelly-Ann Conway - former special adviser to the President

Solar Cycles
29 December 2016 11:12:12

Originally Posted by: Gavin D 

Frozen pipe land if that comes off. 😄

Bertwhistle
29 December 2016 11:14:22

Having viewed the full output now I think I'm in need of a lie down, possibly the coldest snowiest charts since December 2010. Now for the tricky bit, will the weather follow the output. 😂😂😂

Originally Posted by: Solar Cycles 

When will the ENS roll out? Might lessen (or worsen) the misery.

Bertie, Itchen Valley.

Retire while you can still press the 'retire now' button.

Phil G
29 December 2016 11:14:40
Most of us know its an uphill battle for these charts to verify, but maybe just one time it may happen.
Gooner
29 December 2016 11:15:19

Be so funny if the OP had support

 

I saw MM mention the Westerly QBO killing us .....but as Rob has mentioned we had a Westerly QBO in Nov and Dec 2010 and look what happened

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus

Banbury

North Oxfordshire

378 feet A S L



squish
29 December 2016 11:16:32
A flick through the GEFS up to +168 shows considerable( but not overwhelming) support for a similar evolution to the op.

D.E.W on Dartmoor. 300m asl
Joe Bloggs
29 December 2016 11:17:54

A flick through the GEFS up to +168 shows considerable( but not overwhelming) support for a similar evolution to the op.

Originally Posted by: squish 

Indeed. They look very promising. 

Bertwhistle
29 December 2016 11:18:10

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/chart.aspx?chart=/charts/gfs/06_372_preciptype.png?cb=856

Rare; even the Isles of Scilly under deep snow. 

Bertie, Itchen Valley.

Retire while you can still press the 'retire now' button.

Tractor Boy
29 December 2016 11:19:03

 

Not convinced the jet profile is of that much help for a sustained cold spell?

Originally Posted by: Whether Idle 

 

Energy out west, south of Greenland needs to go UNDER the block here...I don't expect it to...

Originally Posted by: Whether Idle 

 

You were saying?

 

 

 

 

Dave

Farndale, North York Moors

squish
29 December 2016 11:19:24
http://modeles7.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/run/gensnh-21-1-180.png?6 

Ensemble 'mean' at +180 !

D.E.W on Dartmoor. 300m asl
The Beast from the East
29 December 2016 11:19:55

http://modeles7.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/runs/2016122906/gens-0-1-180.png

Control ok, not as good as the op but nothing can match that!

 

Purley, Surrey, 70m ASL

"We have some alternative facts for you"

Kelly-Ann Conway - former special adviser to the President

The Beast from the East
29 December 2016 11:21:44

General upgrades from GFS, but the Euros remain a concern. Hopefully we are not being set up for another massive fall as  so often happens

 

Purley, Surrey, 70m ASL

"We have some alternative facts for you"

Kelly-Ann Conway - former special adviser to the President

The Beast from the East
29 December 2016 11:23:34

http://modeles7.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/runs/2016122906/gens-0-0-204.png

White -30 colours over greenland

Purley, Surrey, 70m ASL

"We have some alternative facts for you"

Kelly-Ann Conway - former special adviser to the President

Gooner
29 December 2016 11:23:45

There really isn't much between the OP and Control

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus

Banbury

North Oxfordshire

378 feet A S L



Brian Gaze
29 December 2016 11:23:59

I'm increasingly confident about the January call I made in the TWO winter forecast. Hopefully the outcome will be "one louder" in the words of Spinal Tap. 

Brian Gaze

Berkhamsted

TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 

"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan

Chunky Pea
29 December 2016 11:24:11

General upgrades from GFS, but the Euros remain a concern. Hopefully we are not being set up for another massive fall as  so often happens

Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 

EC15 this morning is not without interest post day 10.

Patrick,

East Galway, Ireland.

Bertwhistle
29 December 2016 11:24:14

Only perts 3 5 8 9 10 16 19 (so 7 out of 21 if you include the control) spoil things at 180. Most of the others continue the northerly recharge, with one easterly already in place at 180.

Bertie, Itchen Valley.

Retire while you can still press the 'retire now' button.

nsrobins
29 December 2016 11:27:04
To join the legendary 'That ECM' we now have 'That GFS' 😉

More runs needed.

Neil

Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)

Stormchaser, Member TORRO

Remove ads from site