The Weather Outlook

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White Meadows
26 December 2016 17:04:08
Good support for the evolution from UKM:

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif 

Quantum
26 December 2016 17:06:43

OK this is finally starting to interest me now, might become active again.

 

Looked at the ENS clusters, very interesting. All the clusters are cold, and quite snowy at 252hr. Even out at 384 many of the clusters are cold. And the start of the cold spell is now coming into the reliable range.

Finally could we see some proper snow?


25/26 (850hpa temp) 11 days snow/sleet falling

18/11 (-4) 19/11 (-6) 20/11 (-6) 01/01 (-7) 04/01 (-10) 10/01 (-7) 11/01 (-3) 30/01 (-1) 13/02 (-6) 15/02 (-4) 18/02 (-6)

24/25 10d

18/11 (-6) 19/11 (-6) 23/11 (-2) 22/12 (-5) 04/01 (-5) 05/01 (0)14/02 (0) 15/02 (0)12/03 (-6) 13/03 (-6)

23/24 8d

29/11 (-6) 30/11 (-6) 02/12 (-5) 03/12 (-5) 04/12 (-3) 16/01 (-3) 18/01 (-8)08/02 (-5)

22/23 7d

18/12 (-1)06/03 (-6) 08/03 (-8) 09/03 (-6) 10/03 (-8) 11/03 (-5) 14/03 (-6)

21/22 12d

some faraway beach
26 December 2016 17:08:29

Always pleasing when the UKMO model is fully on board for this sort of thing. The Polar view at 144 hrs is brilliant, possibly better than the GFS at the same stage, with a proper, clean arrow aiming at my back yard, and warm air delivered on strong winds straight up the west of Greenland (the side we want it), just to ensure things would get even better going forward.


2 miles west of Taunton, 32 m asl, where "milder air moving in from the west" becomes SNOWMAGEDDON.

Well, two or three times a decade it does, anyway.

David M Porter
26 December 2016 17:11:12

Always pleasing when the UKMO model is fully on board for this sort of thing. The Polar view at 144 hrs is brilliant, possibly better than the GFS at the same stage, with a proper, clean arrow aiming at my back yard, and warm air delivered on strong winds straight up the west of Greenland (the side we want it), just to ensure things would get even better going forward.

Originally Posted by: some faraway beach 


Lenzie, Glasgow

"A body of men holding themselves accountable to nobody ought not to be trusted by anybody." – Thomas Paine

Rob K
26 December 2016 17:18:52
Nice to see the charts getting in the festive spirit. Hopefully we can start 2017 the way we started 2010...
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

Karl Guille
26 December 2016 17:53:58
Ensembles continue to show signs of promise with half a dozen decent runs and three touching or dipping below -10hPA!

http://modeles7.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/graphe_ens3.php?x=224&ext=1&y=246&run=12&runpara=0 


St. Sampson

Guernsey

tallyho_83
26 December 2016 17:56:14

So New Year, New Weather NOT the standard stereotypical New Year old weather'!?

http://max.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20161226/12/150/maxtemp.png

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn15017.gif



Turning colder from the north throughout NYD?


Home Location - Vixen Tor Close, Okehampton, Devon (221m ASL)

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Magical Moon

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Brian Gaze
26 December 2016 18:10:17

On my phone but GEFS12z look a tad disappointing.

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twoforecasts/ensemble-forecast.aspx?location=London

Is the data fill in tomorrow goung to tip things back towards a cold snap rather than something tastier?


Brian Gaze

Berkhamsted

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The Beast from the East
26 December 2016 18:17:38

On my phone but GEFS12z look a tad disappointing.

 

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

I would say 6 or 7 out of the 20 are poor for coldies, an improvement on the 06z suite

This is my favourite, the holy grail

http://modeles7.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/runs/2016122612/gens-16-1-360.png

 


Purley, Surrey, 70m ASL

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some faraway beach
26 December 2016 18:43:59

Bitterly cold chart for us at 168 hrs on the ECM. Longer-term, the big Scandi low has been pushed eastwards and away from us - not good for blizzards etc. But who cares at that range? I'd grab what this chart offers, no problem.


2 miles west of Taunton, 32 m asl, where "milder air moving in from the west" becomes SNOWMAGEDDON.

Well, two or three times a decade it does, anyway.

Whether Idle
26 December 2016 19:00:29

At the very edge of the reliable now - JMA @144 not without interest. I cannot believe that anyone thought the ECM was going to pull another cracker after this morning's 240 excitement, though the near Bartlett @ 240 on the 12z is as likely as the Greenie High of the 0z.  Next.

 


Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.
Joe Bloggs
26 December 2016 19:01:46

12z ECM ain't that bad.. just a minor variation on the theme. 

GFS and MetO exceptionally good! 

cultman1
26 December 2016 19:04:18
So which way is this potential cold spell likely to land up ? I see two entirely different views having read the last few posts at 'seemingly' opposite ends of the spectrum?

Confusion currently sums it up for me...... or am I missing something?

roger63
26 December 2016 19:10:03
I can buy into the new year notherly although very often the depression is too Far East to deliver much more than a glancing blow.there are some exciting ens for the following weekend however thre is risk of a default position of bore hip in the atantic or a flattening out back to eurohp.the met office long range forecast looks rather dry but there is always a chance with persistent hip of a real cold spell with snow bring it on
Ally Pally Snowman
26 December 2016 19:12:02

12z ECM ain't that bad.. just a minor variation on the theme. 

GFS and MetO exceptionally good! 

Originally Posted by: Joe Bloggs 

 

Ecm is Shiite when compared to this morning no point in polishing it its a turd. But as you say ukmo and Gfs are excellent.  We have to wait for the ensembles before we can worry to much. 


Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
some faraway beach
26 December 2016 19:15:36

So which way is this potential cold spell likely to land up ? I see two entirely different views having read the last few posts at 'seemingly' opposite ends of the spectrum?
Confusion currently sums it up for me...... or am I missing something?

Originally Posted by: cultman1 

Depends on your agenda. All three models are fantastic for cold up to 144 hrs, in that they all build the mid-Atlantic block, the vital component which once again holds back the westerlies, a six-to-eight-week spell of which Shropshire has been hoping for for the last month.

The UKMO wisely doesn't go any further for public consumption. The GFS does, just for fun, and develops into a stunner. The ECM does, gives us a really hard frost, for what it's worth, then also just for fun, eventually sinks the high at day 10.

Shropshire is interested only in the latter, since he sees it as justifying four hard weeks of trolling.  But it's day 10. Even December 2010 kept offering disappointing charts from one model or the other at day 10, which is why so many failed to appreciate that period.


2 miles west of Taunton, 32 m asl, where "milder air moving in from the west" becomes SNOWMAGEDDON.

Well, two or three times a decade it does, anyway.

Joe Bloggs
26 December 2016 19:16:45

 

 

Ecm is Shiite when compared to this morning no point in polishing it its a turd. But as you say ukmo and Gfs are excellent.  We have to wait for the ensembles before we can worry to much. 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 

crap compared to the 00z but still blocking out west and a blocked Atlantic in evidence 

Jim_AFCB
26 December 2016 19:22:05

Still a long time to go in weather terms. Always room for a a fair bit of flip=flopping which is why I say don't get too hung up on individual runs.

If most/all the model output start back-tracking on cold prospects,then fair enough, but this ain't happening (yet)

Tonight's ECM just one run.


Jim, Bournemouth, Dorset. Home of the mighty Cherries

Bournemouth Weather Onine - Click here. 

Ally Pally Snowman
26 December 2016 19:23:59

 

crap compared to the 00z but still blocking out west and a blocked Atlantic in evidence 

Originally Posted by: Joe Bloggs 

 

It's very different to this morning's mean charts at days 8,9 and 10 so hopefully the ensembles will be much better. I think we will be be very unlucky if the high sinks like that.


Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
White Meadows
26 December 2016 20:01:03
I think Ian secretly loves cold & snow.

Weird mindset.

Gusty
26 December 2016 20:15:02

Some very good charts tonight but that ECM is a setback at a time when things should start to be firming up. GEFS are encouraging at 180 hours but once again there are still a number of perturbations that keep the high pressure cell close to our south meaning the cold air is diverted away from the UK.

Several years of disappointments have made me very cautious..as a result I'm not feeling it..yet. 

 


Steve - Folkestone, Kent

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Whether Idle
26 December 2016 20:23:23

Some very good charts tonight but that ECM is a setback at a time when things should start to be firming up. GEFS are encouraging at 180 hours but once again there are still a number of perturbations that keep the high pressure cell close to our south meaning the cold air is diverted away from the UK.

Several years of disappointments have made me very cautious..as a result I'm not feeling it..yet. 

 

Originally Posted by: Gusty 

ECM is a blow, no doubt about it.  Clearly there is a lot of fragility out there.  As hard as it is, its is best at these points not to look too much beyond 144 as the output is so volatile it will run rings round the best of us.


Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.
JACKO4EVER
26 December 2016 20:24:18
Wow it's never easy is it?

Hopefully this should be resolved come Wednesday, some finger nail biting for sure.

Brian Gaze
26 December 2016 20:34:07

Wow it's never easy is it?
Hopefully this should be resolved come Wednesday, some finger nail biting for sure.

Originally Posted by: JACKO4EVER 

Yes, that's assuming we get over the hurdle of tomorrow's 12z runs. If they don't show a significant shift I will be reasonably confident.


Brian Gaze

Berkhamsted

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White Meadows
26 December 2016 20:38:38
Any news on where ECM op sits within the ensembles?

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